NY-11 Special Election Thread

[Türkisblau]

Cuomo should let the seat sit empty for a year. Punish the district for their stupidity.

The Democrats should also be punished for nominating Recchia.

[Türkisblau]

I thin the Republican takes it by at least a good 7 points, maybe slightly more. I can't imagine turnout will be very high at all.

It depends a lot on whether the now-internationally infamous Donovan manages to draw a lot more attention to the race and drive out a lot more black and Hispanic turnout than would ever be expected in a special election.

It would be political suicide for the white Democratic candidate to appear alongside Al Sharpton at a rally to try to drive up black and Hispanic turnout against Donovan in this district; however if Sharpton sticks to just making a big issue of attacking Donovan and reminding Staten Island minority voters Donovan is responsible for Eric Garner's killer walking free, while remaining silent on the Democratic candidate, the race can be made competitive. With high black and Hispanic turnout combined with keeping the margin of loss among whites as small as possible (nominating a white conservative Democrat like Cusick), the Democrat can eke out a narrow victory just like Barack Obama narrowly won Staten Island in 2012.

Wait, complexity and varying factors!?

But muh turnout!

[Türkisblau]

I thin the Republican takes it by at least a good 7 points, maybe slightly more. I can't imagine turnout will be very high at all.

It depends a lot on whether the now-internationally infamous Donovan manages to draw a lot more attention to the race and drive out a lot more black and Hispanic turnout than would ever be expected in a special election.

It would be political suicide for the white Democratic candidate to appear alongside Al Sharpton at a rally to try to drive up black and Hispanic turnout against Donovan in this district; however if Sharpton sticks to just making a big issue of attacking Donovan and reminding Staten Island minority voters Donovan is responsible for Eric Garner's killer walking free, while remaining silent on the Democratic candidate, the race can be made competitive. With high black and Hispanic turnout combined with keeping the margin of loss among whites as small as possible (nominating a white conservative Democrat like Cusick), the Democrat can eke out a narrow victory just like Barack Obama narrowly won Staten Island in 2012.

Wait, complexity and varying factors!?

But muh turnout!

LOL. Don't get mad when turnout is 30 percent and the Rebugs win by 7 percentage points.

Don't get mad when people call you out for adding nothing to the discussion.