New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Hifly]

With the NSW Parliament up for election in just over 3 months time, and with things starting to get lively, I think it deserves a thread of its own.

To start this thread off, ALP leader John Robertson, struggling to gain popularity among both his caucus and the public, has just resigned after he was found to have written a letter to recommend the Sydney gunman Man Haron Monis.

The two candidates expected to contest for his place as Opposition Leader are Michael Daley, who currently serves as Shadow Treasurer, and Luke Foley, Labor's leader in the Legislative Council.

On factional lines, Daley should have the advantage if he does run, since he's from the Right, but Foley is generally regarded to be one of the State ALP's greatest assets. The issues are that he's from the Left, so would need crossover support, and someone would have to step aside for him so that he can move down into the Assembly.

Needless to say I doubt this whole saga will help the ALP recover and the Coalition looks set for re-election (with room for error).

[Hifly]

ALP head office is backing Foley and the seat he would probably take is Auburn, where there's an ongoing preselection fiasco/branch stacking allegations involving Hicham Zraika and sitting MP Barbara Perry, who would probably stand aside if Foley ran.

If Foley does confirm that he's running, Daily Telegraph sources say that he's likely to win.

The leadership ballot will he held at the beginning of January.

[Smid]

These are already in the Gallery.

Two Candidate Preferred


Primary Vote



Blank map is also in the Gallery.

[Hifly]

The latest Newspoll, conducted before John Robertson's resignation, has the Liberals up 56-44 2PP.

[MaxQue]

The latest Newspoll, conducted before John Robertson's resignation, has the Liberals up 56-44 2PP.

That's not too bad, that is a 8 point swing to Labor.

[Barnes]

The latest Newspoll, conducted before John Robertson's resignation, has the Liberals up 56-44 2PP.

That's not too bad, that is a 8 point swing to Labor.

Precisely.  NSW Labor is still in deep muck, and were never going to win this election (at least in my opinion), any improvement from the disaster of 2011 will help set them up on the road to recovery.  So I guess the real race is not to see if there'll be a change of government, but how big a swing Labor can pull off to help refill their ranks.

[Hifly]

So the race is on: Foley vs Daley. Foley has announced that he will contest the rank & file preselection for Auburn rather than a parachute if he wins.

It's going to be nice to see NSW Labor have a socially conservative leader from next week, taking a stand against the Greens' agenda.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labor will win, to the surprise of everyone. You heard it here first.

[Hifly]

Labor will win, to the surprise of everyone. You heard it here first.

Is this your prediction?

[Barnes]

Labor will win, to the surprise of everyone. You heard it here first.

Well, we can only hope!

Although, you can never be very sure in politics, no matter how certain things might be - just look at the Fisher by-election in SA this month.

[Ebowed]

It's going to be nice to see NSW Labor have a socially conservative leader from next week, taking a stand against the Greens' agenda.

The Coalition has enough of a stranglehold on this state as it is.

[SNJ1985]

It would be nice to see the CDP and/or FFP gain seats.

[Hifly]

It would be nice to see the CDP and/or FFP gain seats.

Both the Labor and Liberal leaders into the election are extremely religious, holding Pro-Life and Pro-Marriage views, so there's no danger of some radical social agenda taking form.

[Hifly]

And it's over: Michel Daley has withdrawn, so Luke Foley will be Labor's new leader!

His election is quite a milestone in NSW Labor history; for the leader, let alone a member of the Hard Left faction to get such significant Sussex Street support is almost unheard of.

LGBT rights activists have already started throwing hissy fits.

http://m.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-labor-leadership-maroubra-mp-michael-daley-withdraws-luke-foley-has-clear-run-to-nsw-labor-leadership-20141230-12fmud.html

[DL]

How is it possible for someone to be both "hard left" and also an anti-gay bigoted religious freak??? In the rest of the civilized world you are never considered leftwing if you are no gay-positive. What is it with Australia?

In Canada if you opposed gay marriage you would be a pariah and face expulsion from the NDP (the sister party to the Australian Labor Party) and also from the liberal party. The only party in Canada that would not expel an MP for being anti-gay would be the Conservative party and even they are backpedal ling like crazy on the social conservative stuff.

Why does Australia stand alone in terms of being so retrograde on gay rights compared to the other Anglo countries like Canada, the UK, New Zealand and these days most parts of the U.S. as well?

[Zanas]

How is it possible for someone to be both "hard left" and also an anti-gay bigoted religious freak??? In the rest of the civilized world you are never considered leftwing if you are no gay-positive. What is it with Australia?

In Canada if you opposed gay marriage you would be a pariah and face expulsion from the NDP (the sister party to the Australian Labor Party) and also from the liberal party. The only party in Canada that would not expel an MP for being anti-gay would be the Conservative party and even they are backpedal ling like crazy on the social conservative stuff.

Why does Australia stand alone in terms of being so retrograde on gay rights compared to the other Anglo countries like Canada, the UK, New Zealand and these days most parts of the U.S. as well?

NDP is certainly not the sister party to the Australian Labor Party, at all, in any way whatsoever.

And Australia tend to be retrograde on a number of things, not only gay rights. Sorry Aussies.

[checkers]

Why does Australia stand alone in terms of being so retrograde on gay rights compared to the other Anglo countries like Canada, the UK, New Zealand and these days most parts of the U.S. as well?

It's not really the Australian populace that is opposed to gay marriage (a recent poll showed that 72% of Australians support gay marriage, and that was six months ago, so support may have increased since then), but the strong influence of socially conservative unions within the ALP. A lot of people have speculated that Gillard's failure to support gay marriage was due to her need for the support of the socially conservative leader of the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association, Joe de Bruyn. The ALP has also traditionally had a fairly culturally conservative Catholic base, though religious-based voting patterns have basically dwindled over recent years.

The NDP and the ALP are both members of the Socialist International, so I don't think it's absurd to say they're sister parties.

[Hifly]

How is it possible for someone to be both "hard left" and also an anti-gay bigoted religious freak??? In the rest of the civilized world you are never considered leftwing if you are no gay-positive. What is it with Australia?

In Canada if you opposed gay marriage you would be a pariah and face expulsion from the NDP (the sister party to the Australian Labor Party) and also from the liberal party. The only party in Canada that would not expel an MP for being anti-gay would be the Conservative party and even they are backpedal ling like crazy on the social conservative stuff.

Why does Australia stand alone in terms of being so retrograde on gay rights compared to the other Anglo countries like Canada, the UK, New Zealand and these days most parts of the U.S. as well?

Do you understand that one's views on social issues do not dictate whether one is left or right wing?

As far as I know, the NDP is the only 'mainstream' socialist party in the Anglosphere to hold such intolerance to social conservatism. All other Labour parties, not just the ALP but also NZ and UK Labour have social conservatives in their ranks and one is just as entitled to be pro-life and anti-gay marriage as one is entitled to be pro-choice and pro-gay rights.
It's not the ALP that's the problem, it's the NDP! You guys are the ones with a bizarre and inequitable stance on these issues. But what more can you expect from a joke party which has no chance of winning a federal election.
The union movement in Australia remains steadfast!

I'm also interested to know what you mean by "civilised". Are you racist as well?

[Zanas]

Hifly teaches us that one can be left-wing and a bigoted conservative unwilling to grant equality to the people. News at 6.


Oh, and about the fact that both NDP and ALP belong to the Socialist International, so do the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, the Republican Turkish Party of Northern Cyprus, the Fatah or the MAS in Venezuela... Not all members of the SI can be described as "sister parties".

If anything, I would say the ALP is closer to the Liberals in Canada than to the NDP.

[lilTommy]

How is it possible for someone to be both "hard left" and also an anti-gay bigoted religious freak??? In the rest of the civilized world you are never considered leftwing if you are no gay-positive. What is it with Australia?

In Canada if you opposed gay marriage you would be a pariah and face expulsion from the NDP (the sister party to the Australian Labor Party) and also from the liberal party. The only party in Canada that would not expel an MP for being anti-gay would be the Conservative party and even they are backpedal ling like crazy on the social conservative stuff.

Why does Australia stand alone in terms of being so retrograde on gay rights compared to the other Anglo countries like Canada, the UK, New Zealand and these days most parts of the U.S. as well?

Do you understand that one's views on social issues do not dictate whether one is left or right wing?

As far as I know, the NDP is the only 'mainstream' socialist party in the Anglosphere to hold such intolerance to social conservatism. All other Labour parties, not just the ALP but also NZ and UK Labour have social conservatives in their ranks and one is just as entitled to be pro-life and anti-gay marriage as one is entitled to be pro-choice and pro-gay rights.
It's not the ALP that's the problem, it's the NDP! You guys are the ones with a bizarre and inequitable stance on these issues. But what more can you expect from a joke party which has no chance of winning a federal election.
The union movement in Australia remains steadfast!

I'm also interested to know what you mean by "civilised". Are you racist as well?

Well that escalated quickly...
The NDP does not have the same history as the ALP and UKLabour of being big tent progressive governing parties; the the CCF (the original party that became the NDP in the 60s) was always a Socialist, Social Democratic party but that being vilified in North America due to the Mccarthy-red scare american influence limited the parties appeal outside of select provinces and demographics.
The NDP would be the left-wing faction of the ALP, that is the best comparison.

Armand Duval is correct, the closest comparison would be the Liberals who were a big tent progressive party but not at all Social Democratic, they were/are the Democrats of Canada.

BUT recently most leaders of Labour/SD parties are socially progressive as well (so Pro-SSM Pro-life)

Back to NSW, is even SSM marriage an election issue? has it been?

[politicus]

Hifly teaches us that one can be left-wing and a bigoted conservative unwilling to grant equality to the people. News at 6.


Oh, and about the fact that both NDP and ALP belong to the Socialist International, so do the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, the Republican Turkish Party of Northern Cyprus, the Fatah or the MAS in Venezuela... Not all members of the SI can be described as "sister parties".

If anything, I would say the ALP is closer to the Liberals in Canada than to the NDP.

The ALP has two main factions. Socialist Left would clearly be comparable to NDP and the sheer fact that ALP has a union base makes it logical to compare it to NDP.
Labor Unity is more comparable to the Liberals in Canada on most issues, with the SoCon positions of some of its members being an important difference.
Basically ALP is a much broader coalition than NDP - stretching further right.

[Hifly]

Social issues are still a major source of conflict within the heavily Catholic influenced Right Faction of the ALP.
Being Pro-Life and Anti-Gay Marriage is occasionally a prerequisite for some ALP candidates in certain seats. Labor MPs have been deselected, or been seriously challenged before because they were too socially liberal.

The NSW Right has the strongest socially conservative streak of all factions.
Luke Foley is one of the few exceptions in the Left.

[DL]

FYI, the ALP and the NDP are more than just two parties that happen to both be members of the Socialist International...they a actually quite closely allied. The ALP always send observers to NDP conventions and in fact that the last federal NDP convention in 2012 the guest keynote speaker was none other than Bill Shorten who is now leader of the ALP! Apparently Shorten was personal friends with Jack Layton too. And Julia Gillard addressed the convention by video as well as NDP staffers regularly go to Australia to share strategy with their ALP counterparts etc...I would say that the ALP is much like the NDP in provinces like BC and Manitoba that are Australia style two party systems.

I find it incomprehensible that in this day and age there is even such a thing as a socially conservative union. In Canada, the UK and even the US, the trade union movement is virtually unanimously in the forefront of gay rights in if you the see the movie Pride you'll see how in the UK the miners union has had an alliance with the LGBT a community since 1985!

I suppose people can argue about what exactly defines "left" and "right" in this day and age but it seems to me that in the 21st century one of the sine qua nons of being leftwing is to oppose racism and homophobia.

I don't know what they put in the water in Australia but in the rest of the western world if you got up on stage and said "I'm leftwing and I also think white people are genetically superior to blacks AND that gays and lesbians are inferior to straight people and should not be allowed to marry" you would be an object of ridicule.
It's particularly bizarre that New South Wales contains Sydney which has one of the worlds biggest LGBT communities. Can anyone in this day and age imagine the Democratic Party in Calfornia nominating a candidate for governor of the state who was anti-gay?

[DL]

PS, the NDP is not the only social democratic or left of cone party in the western world to be 100% in favour of gay rights. First of all the Liberal party in Canada is now also with the program and as much as I despise Justin Trudeau he has declared that no one will be allowed to run as a liberal in the next election unless they are in favour of abortion rights and same sex marriage. I'm quite certain that the French Socialist Party, the German Social Democrats and SD parties across Scandinavia are also 100% pro SSM and have it as part of their core principles.

[Hifly]

If you find it incomprehensible that one can be a trade unionist and hold left wing views on economic issues while at the same time being a social traditionalist then you ought to go out a bit more.

Regarding mining communities, some of the strongest opposition to gay rights came from Labour MPs in South Wales valleys...

The French Socialist Party and all Scandinavian SDs are certainly not unanimously pro-Gay Marriage; most recently MPs from both the PS and Finnish Social Democrats spoke and voted against gay marriage in their respective parliaments. They were neither reprimanded nor expelled.

I will emphasise again that your own position and your party's own position is most obscure and unconventional among the global left, except for maybe Irish Labour which is equally hapless and with which you share some common ground re electoral issues. But the difference between your party, Irish Labour and the rest of the Anglosphere's centre-left is that your party is a joke party that has never won, nor ever will win a federal election. Have fun!!