New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Ebowed]

Guardian/Lonergan has it as 55-45 to the Coalition, while Galaxy has it at 54-46.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/21/new-south-wales-election-minus-one-week/

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/reachtel-labor-leads-in-ballina-newtown-and-strathfield/

There are also three electorate polls, showing some fairly surprising results.

In Ballina, Labor is ahead of the Nationals 52.2-47.8.

In Strathfield, Labor is ahead of the Liberals only 50.8-49.2.

In Newtown, Labor is ahead of the Greens 56.5-43.5.

That is a surprise.  And a very mixed bag...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How accurate are Australian electorate polls?

[Phony Moderate]

How accurate are Australian electorate polls?

About as accurate as any other nation's electorate polls (i.e not very).

[Ebowed]

How accurate are Australian electorate polls?

Not especially.

If these are to be believed, the Labor party is doing better in regional communities than in some of the western suburbs.  Which might explain why the Coalition has such a good statewide result.  IIRC, Strathfield is normally a safe Labor area.  I don't know what to make of the Newtown poll, except that I hope it's inaccurate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How accurate are Australian electorate polls?

Not especially.

If these are to be believed, the Labor party is doing better in regional communities than in some of the western suburbs.  Which might explain why the Coalition has such a good statewide result.  IIRC, Strathfield is normally a safe Labor area.  I don't know what to make of the Newtown poll, except that I hope it's inaccurate.

Well, my view has been that we'll see Coalition seats on 15%+ margins fall but they'll hold on seats on 5-8%.

I don't think the Greens will win Newtown, the margin in that poll surprises me. But I think the ALP primary will return to normal and a reverse of the protest preference flows from 2011 in that area will ensure the ALP will win.

Strathfield will be close, the demographics are exactly the type that would give Baird another shot. It's not a old-school Labor or very socially liberal area. It is a moderate mix of city commuters, generally slightly skewed to the wealthier and educated end. It's a bit like Bulimba/Brisbane Central being underwhelming in comparison to state-wide swing.

[morgieb]

How accurate are Australian electorate polls?

Not especially.

If these are to be believed, the Labor party is doing better in regional communities than in some of the western suburbs.  Which might explain why the Coalition has such a good statewide result.  IIRC, Strathfield is normally a safe Labor area.  I don't know what to make of the Newtown poll, except that I hope it's inaccurate.

Only since Pauline Hanson, before that it was Liberal-leaning. Think it'll be a key marginal, though Labor will probably win it barring a poor night statewide.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Current Prediction

TPP
Coalition: 53.6%
ALP: 46.4%

Seats
Coalition: 51
ALP: 39
Other: 3

[Talleyrand]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/fairfax-ipsos-54-46-to-coalition-in-nsw/

Fairfax/Ipsos has it at 54-46.


Three more electorate polls are out, and all have the Liberals with narrow leads in key seats.

Campbelltown- 51-49 Liberal v. Labor
Coogee- 52-48 Liberal v. Labor
The Entrance- 51-49 Liberal v. Labor

The last two are Sydney seats held on margins of around 6-9% (the sort which fell to Labor in Queensland in January, resulting in the party's victory), but the Coalition seems to be doing a decent job limiting the swings here. The last one is a Central Coast seat with a margin exceeding 10%, so that's a better result for the ALP.

www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/state-election-liberals-set-to-seize-decisive-victory-this-saturday/story-fnrskx7r-1227273864386

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This kind of demonstrates the point about the Coalition being able to hold metro seats on smaller margins whilst losing regional seats in bigger ones

[morgieb]

I'd be surprised if they hold Campbelltown unless they have a strong night, but the other two don't really shock.

Anyone who's paying attention would realise that the swings were gonna vary big time depending on the region. I pointed that out like ages ago.

Thinking the 2PP vote will be the same as the federal election. Seat wise, probably the Coalition will do a few seats better than I expected a few weeks ago.

[Talleyrand]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/25/new-south-wales-election-minus-three-days/

In short-

The ALP thinks it'll win Ballina from the Nats, and that it has a chance in Lismore, although internals suggest the Greens may be better placed there. The lack of mention of Tweed implies the Coalition will hold it.

There is speculation the Libs can hold Oatley and Granville, despite these being on tiny margins of 3.8% each.

Jackie Kelly is directing preferences to Labor in Penrith.

[Hifly]

Guardian/Lonergan:

Coalition 57% (+2)
Labor 43% (-2)

[Talleyrand]

Final Prediction

56.3-43.7% to the Coalition

Coalition- 61
Labor- 31
Independent-1

-Greg Piper will be the only independent
-Labor will win both Green seats
-Monaro will stay National
-Strathfield will stay Liberal
-The Labor hype in Nat seats like Ballina and Lismore will be proven silly

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I was having a discussion with a friend in the NSW Party this afternoon and said that while I think there was never really much of a chance of us winning, we've blown some pretty decent opportunities.

1. Trying to demonise a genuinely popular leader generally doesn't work - Newman was hated and Napthine was a even-money bet. The last minute surge of "vote out Baird on Saturday and Abbott goes on Monday" was really clumsy and desperate.

2. The privatisation issue is effective but it wasn't argued properly. Especially since they didn't capitalise on Baird saying it was his only way of paying for Infrastructure spending.

3. The CSG argument in the regions has worked well and will make a lot of previously out of touch seats close.

I think the swing in Sydney will be comparatively small  but there will be large swings in the regions.

I'll do my final predictions tomorrow, but they have moved away from the ALP since I did the preliminary one on Sunday.

[morgieb]

I'll say 54-46 TPP. Seat wise, 54/35/4. Labor don't really do well in Sydney but do manage to get a good swing in the regions.

The ones to watch:

Ballina & Lismore - aka the CSG seats. Labor held on federal figures, and the polling/internal thinking suggests that despite the huge margins Labor have a good shot here. I think Labor pinches Ballina, but not Lismore. It does however come down to preference flows.
Strathfield & Monaro - would probably stay in the Coalition's hand in a bubble....but Labor have strong candidates here and would be trying harder to hold them than the Coalition. Have them voting Labor, narrowly.
Blue Mountains - on paper should be won by Labor, but it is a traditional bellweather. Will be close, at least.
Campbelltown - not as Labor as it once was and is probably beyond the expected swing in Sydney - Galaxy said that the Liberals were ahead here. Giving it to Labor because of its history, but it ought to be tight.
Granville - some talk of Liberals defying the small margin and demographics and holding on. Will be surprised if that happens, but in a strong night for the Coalition, who knows. The sitting member is strong.....
Coogee - 52/48 according to Galaxy. Probably a Liberal hold, but might get interesting if Labor/Green preference flows are tight.
East Hills - only the barest of swings is required to pick this up, but apparently local sources are pessimistic here. Federally the district was stronger for the Liberals than in the state election....
Balmain - think Firth's profile will still see her win, but it's not an easy one to call. Doesn't matter anyway, I can't really see the Liberals winning here particularly given how the preferences are looking like flowing.
Holsworthy/Seven Hills/Mulgoa/Parramatta/Oatley - five suburban marginals. A variety of ethnicities here. It's weird to put them all in the same basket, but whatever. Anyway, given the polls the Liberals should hold all five, but they will be election deciders.
The Entrance/Gosford/Port Stephens - here are three safe-ish Coalition seats that have been bit by the ICAC bug (well, not Gosford). In the case of the former two they are a halfway house in between Sydney and the regions, so the swing will be interesting. The latter is safer but has been Labor held for significant portions of the past. The margins will make it tough for Labor to flip without significant momentum, but an upset is possible if corruption is a big issue at the voting booth.
Kiama - this will come down to what sort of night Labor have. Ought to be close - it's a regional seat, but also a double sophmore surge one. Think the Liberals hold but will be close.
Goulburn/Bathurst/Barwon/Upper Hunter/Tweed/Clarence - these should all be safe on paper, but there's talk that these seats could end up being tighter than expected. With strong Labor movement in the regions, these seats are worth watching, even though I suspect that talk Labor pick these up is merely talk.
Penrith - was probably going to stay Liberal, but if Kelly polls well........add that she's directing preferences to Labor and a boilover is possible.
Tamworth - won't be won by Labor, but the local talk is that Draper should be able to knock off the Nats and return to parliament. Despite my original gut suggesting that his attempts to return to parliament were gonna work as well as Foley's did, I've flip-flopped here.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We've had three polls out tonight
- A Talleyesque 57.5-42.5 from Morgan (no one believes it)
- ReachTEL has it 54-46 with Green preferences helping Labor
- Newspoll has it as 55-45 but 52-48 on allocated preferences (collapse in the LNP vote outside of Sydney)

Long story short, the Libs will win, but no one has any idea by how much or how little.

Morgieb, the person I was speaking too was not optimistic about Granville, but fairly confident about Oatley FWIW.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

My predictions:

Albury - Easy Liberal hold.
Auburn - Easy Labor hold, particularly with Opposition Leader Luke Foley as candidate.
Ballina - Traditionally a safe National seat at the state level, this will likely go down to the wire... Every election has that one upset, and I think Green preferences will give this to Labor.
Balmain - Labor have a fair chance of winning this back, although Parker is the incumbent. This, combined with this bit of Sydney being very Green-friendly, is the basis of my decision to list Balmain as a likely Green hold.
Bankstown - Easy Labor hold.
Barwon - Easy National hold, unless Rohan Boehm puts up a strong challenge.
Bathurst - Likely National hold, although given the way Bathurst swung in 2011, expect a large swing back to Labor.
Baulkham Hills - Easy Liberal hold.
Bega - Liberal hold.
Blacktown - Easy Labor hold.
Blue Mountains - Blue Mountains' bellwether record looks set to come to an end.
Cabramatta - Labor hold, with a much larger margin.
Camden - Liberal hold, particularly given the loss of the Campbelltown area.
Campbelltown - Likely Labor gain, even with the very Liberal-friendly redistribution.
Canterbury - Easy Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Easy Liberal hold.
Cessnock - Easy Labor hold, particularly after the vote-splitting of 2011 that denied the Nationals victory.
Charlestown - Labor shouldn't have much trouble holding this part of Newcastle, after gaining it at a by-election.
Clarence - National hold, although expect a large swing back to Labor.
Coffs Harbour - Easy National hold.
Coogee - This will be close, given Paul Pearce's return. Going for a narrow Liberal hold.
Cootamundra - Easy National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Easy Liberal hold, and Labor to retake 2nd place.
Drummoyne - Likely Liberal hold, given the reports of Labor running dead, and the demographic change here.
Dubbo - National hold, unless Col Hamilton does really well (as far as I know, he doesn’t have too much of a profile).
East Hills - Easy Labor gain.
Epping - Easy Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold, particularly with Joe Tripodi no longer an issue.
Gosford - As the only Central Coast MP not to fall victim to the ICAC, Holstein has a decent chance of holding. Going for a narrow Liberal hold.
Goulburn - Liberal hold, even with former Senator Ursula Stephens as the Labor candidate.
Granville - Labor gain, another surprise Liberal win in 2011.
Hawkesbury - Easy Liberal hold.
Heathcote - Likely Liberal hold, given the redistribution. In my opinion, Heathcote, in its current configuration, won’t go back to Labor until next time they win government.
Heffron - Easy Labor hold, and the Liberals to remain in second.
Holsworthy - Possible Liberal hold, considering the major redistribution here.
Hornsby - Easy Liberal hold, particularly without Nick Berman in the race.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama - The redistribution has made this more Liberal-friendly, and will be another one to watch on election night. I'll go for a narrow Liberal hold.
Kogarah - Labor hold, particularly with the Labor-friendly redistribution.
Ku-ring-gai - Easy Liberal hold, even with former Premier O'Farrell's retirement.
Lake Macquarie - Greg Piper will easily win again, and Labor will come second.
Lakemba - Easy Labor hold.
Lane Cove - Easy Liberal hold, with Labor retaking second place.
Lismore - National hold, unless Labor do REALLY well.
Liverpool - Easy Labor hold.
Londonderry - Likely Labor gain, given the scandals involving Bassett, him attempting to flee for Hawkesbury, and the major redistribution.
Macquarie Fields - Labor will easily win this notionally Liberal seat back. On another note, Pat Farmer did not represent this area - the territory comprising Macquarie Fields in both its recent incarnations, has been part of Werriwa, not Macarthur.
Maitland - Robyn Parker's retirement should easily see Maitland go back to Labor.
Manly - Premier Baird will be returned easily.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda - The Liberals will win this back, given Collier’s second retirement, and the strengthening of the seat at the redistribution.
Monaro - A traditionally marginal seat, Steve Whan should easily win this back for Labor. When Whan retires though, this will be one to watch.
Mount Druitt - Easy Labor hold.
Mulgoa - Will likely stay with the Baird Government.
Murray - Easy National hold.
Myall Lakes - Easy National hold.
Newcastle - In an alternate universe where Tim Owen had not lied to the ICAC, and thus no by-election would have occurred, the Liberals would have struggled to hold this. Labor will easily hold after their 2014 by-election pickup.
Newtown - Tough to call, I think Labor will win this new seat though, given their local campaign here.
North Shore - Easy Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands - Easy National hold, particularly with no strong independent this time around.
Oatley - May not be as vulnerable as the low margin suggests - this covers the better Liberal areas on the northern bank of the Georges River, and would have been Liberal held on federal figures in both 2010 and 2013. I'll go for a quasi-upset Liberal hold here.
Orange - Easy National hold.
Oxley - Easy National hold.
Parramatta - Made better in the redistribution, this one will probably narrowly stay Liberal.
Penrith - Jackie Kelly contesting as an independent, and directing preferences to Labor, makes this key seat even more interesting... Should be a Liberal hold though.
Pittwater - Another very safe Liberal seat where Labor will likely retake second place in 2015.
Port Macquarie - Easy National hold, particularly with the absence of Peter Besseling.
Port Stephens - Possible Liberal hold, given what happened with Baumann.
Prospect - Labor gain, particularly with the redistribution making the seat more favourable to Labor.
Riverstone - The demographics in Riverstone have obviously changed, it was held by Labor with a 7.2% margin at the 1988 Liberal/National landslide, and by 7.5% in 1991. I’ll go for a possible-likely Liberal hold here, but I expect a large swing to Labor.
Rockdale - Labor gain, considering this was another of the high-tide Liberal wins of 2011.
Ryde - Likely Liberal hold, unless Labor gain a swing large enough to topple the inflated margin here.
Seven Hills - This new seat, with two distinct ends, is another one to watch. Possible Liberal win, if Labor win this, expect them to be winning most of the other nail-biter seats
Shellharbour - Easy Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberal hold.
Strathfield - Historically a Liberal seat, this could stay with the Liberals, while seats further up the pendulum fall to Labor. With the redistribution making Strathfield 2% better for Liberals, along with Jodi McKay being parachuted in from Newcastle, I'm going for a narrow Labor gain here.
Summer Hill - The Greens will likely come second here in 2015, although Labor should hold.
Swansea - Even without the corruption allegations against sitting member Gerry Edwards, this would have been monumentally difficult for the Liberals to hold, and Labor will easily Swansea back.
Sydney - Greenwich will win his first general election. As for second place, hard to call – could be Labor or the Liberals.
Tamworth - National hold, barring Peter Draper doing well enough after four years to get back in.
Terrigal - Liberal hold, even with the Hartcher factor here.
The Entrance - Hard to call, although Spence's scandal has made this already key seat even more crucial to watch. As Frankston in last year's Victorian election and Dobell in the last federal election both demonstrated, once a corrupt MP is removed from the equation, voting habits generally return to normal. I think we'll see a narrow Labor gain here.
Tweed - Likely National hold, barring an extremely large swing to Labor.
Upper Hunter - National hold.
Vaucluse - Easy Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Easy Liberal hold, particularly with no strong independent.
Wakehurst - Easy Liberal hold, with Labor resuming 2nd place.
Wallsend - Easy Labor hold.
Willoughby - Easy Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - As with Camden, Liberal hold, particularly given the loss of the Campbelltown suburbs.
Wollongong - Safe for Labor in theory, although if Arthur Rorris holds most of Gordon Bradbery's 2011 vote, and picks up a few Liberal votes, this could become interesting... I'll class this as a Labor hold though.
Wyong - Darren Webber's tenure has ensured a Labor gain here, even with the redistribution being friendly to the Liberals.

TOTALS:
Liberal - 38
National - 16
Labor - 36
Greens - 1
Independent - 2

[Ebowed]

I haven't seen much evidence of a Labor campaign in Newtown at all, just a bit on ABC about Penny Sharpe targeting the gay community with dating apps.  (Likewise Alex Greenwich.)

The only reason I'm even worried about a Greens loss there is because of the polling and consensus here.

I think Balmain will hold, too.  The Greens should get 2nd in Summer Hill and potentially Lismore (against the Nats).  The Liberals campaign in Heffron also deserves well beyond third place, it's been very visibly phoned in, but the demographic there might be able to help them keep 2nd.

[Ebowed]

Labor was out and early this morning in my part of town, plastering their presence everywhere, including on the bus route maps, outside the church.  Summer Hill theoretically presents a 12.8% advantage to Labor, I believe.  Incidentally, the Liberals candidate stopped turning up to events, had dropped off of Facebook, and meanwhile had a number of complaints from Ashfield council just this year for obnoxious behaviour in her capacity as councilor.  I look forward to seeing the breakdown for this seat, should be interesting.

[morgieb]

We've had three polls out tonight
- A Talleyesque 57.5-42.5 from Morgan (no one believes it)
- ReachTEL has it 54-46 with Green preferences helping Labor
- Newspoll has it as 55-45 but 52-48 on allocated preferences (collapse in the LNP vote outside of Sydney)

Long story short, the Libs will win, but no one has any idea by how much or how little.

Morgieb, the person I was speaking too was not optimistic about Granville, but fairly confident about Oatley FWIW.

Interesting. Media sources are saying the opposite seemingly, but we won't know who's correct for another 10 hours.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My predictions - using Anton's format.

Albury - Liberal hold.
Auburn – Labor hold.
Ballina – Labor gain.
Balmain – I think the recovery of the ALP primary vote, albeit a marginal one means that this is a Labor gain. But it’ll be down to the wire.
Bankstown - Labor hold.
Barwon – National hold.
Bathurst – National hold.
Baulkham Hills - Liberal hold.
Bega - Liberal hold. But the margin will be very interesting to see.
Blacktown - Labor hold.
Blue Mountains – Labor gain.
Cabramatta - Labor hold.
Camden - Liberal hold.
Campbelltown – Seat to watch. This seat should be a Labor gain, but the re-dist has been very helpful to the Liberals… but I’ll still call this a Liberal hold, but not comfortable.
Canterbury - Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Liberal hold.
Cessnock – Labor hold.
Charlestown - Labor hold.
Clarence - National hold. Big swing.
Coffs Harbour - National hold.
Coogee – Very close. Liberal hold, but the Green vote here will be very important.
Cootamundra - National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Liberal hold.
Drummoyne – Liberal hold.
Dubbo - National hold.
East Hills – Seat to watch. The most marginal seat in the state and one that Labor should win in a canter. But something is going on in the seat and I’d be really shocked if Labor can’t swing this. I will say Labor gain, but with the pretty vile personal attacks on the ALP candidate - I think this, stunningly, will be held. 
Epping - Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold.
Gosford – Seat to watch. If Labor can swing this then it’s likely all the narrow Lib seats in and around the central coast will fall. But, very, very narrow Liberal hold.
Goulburn - Liberal hold. But the margin will be really interesting.
Granville –Seat to watch. Ugh.... this is a tough one. Really bloody though. I’m going to say Labor gain, but not at all comfortable.
Hawkesbury - Liberal hold.
Heathcote – Liberal hold.
Heffron – Labor hold.
Holsworthy – Liberal hold, but would not surprise me if Labor gets it.
Hornsby – Liberal hold.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama – After a helpful re-dist and Ward is well-liked by both sides of politics and broadly considered to be a very good local member, Liberal hold – swing will be surprisingly small.
Kogarah - Labor hold.
Ku-ring-gai - Liberal hold.
Lake Macquarie – Ind hold.
Lakemba - Labor hold.
Lane Cove – Liberal gain.
Lismore – I think the Nationals will lose this seat. The issue is to whom. Labor is very happy with their performance in the area, but the Greens are running hard and well. Again… another no guts no glory… Greens gain.
Liverpool - Labor hold.
Londonderry – Labor gain.
Macquarie Fields – Labor gain.
Maitland – Labor gain.
Manly – Liberal hold.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda – Liberal gain.
Monaro – Seat to watch (naturally) Whan is a well-known and well-liked former local member. The ground-game, especially in Queanbeyan is really strong and is the key to the seat. It’ll be closer than it should be, but Labor gain.
Mount Druitt - Labor hold.
Mulgoa – Liberal gain.
Murray - National hold.
Myall Lakes - National hold.
Newcastle – Labor hold.
Newtown – Labor win.
North Shore - Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands – National hold.
Oatley – Seat to watch. I’m hearing very mixed reports about this one. Some say the local ground game is really effective. The ALP candidate is a local nurse and the nurses are door-knocking hard. I think this seat will see a tiny comparative swing. Again, sticking my neck out… Liberal hold.
Orange - National hold.
Oxley - National hold.
Parramatta – Liberal hold. But could fall if the swing in Sydney is bigger than is being expected.
Penrith – High-profile Independent directing preferences to Labor, I don’t think the Liberals should feel at all comfortable about it, Liberal hold... but should be close.
Pittwater – Liberal hold.
Port Macquarie - National hold.
Port Stephens – Seat to watch. The expansion of this seat to the west of the highway is a mixed blessing. I think the Liberals will hold this. But it will be one to watch. 
Prospect - Labor gain.
Riverstone – Liberal hold. Large swing.
Rockdale - Labor gain.
Ryde – Liberal hold.
Seven Hills – Seat to watch. As Anton suggests, this seat is kind of a microcosm of many of the true margins in Western Sydney. If Labor wins this, then they’ll stand a good chance elsewhere and shows where swings could peak. Liberal win, but very tight.
Shellharbour - Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberal hold.
Strathfield – Seat to watch. This will be telling of the swing in this part of Sydney. If the swing is tiny, just pulling McKay over the line, look to Granville and Oatley. Labor gain.
Summer Hill - Labor hold.
Swansea – Labor hold.
Sydney – Independent gain.
Tamworth – Seat to watch. This is a very Independent-friendly seat and if it were anyone else, I would say this is a Nationals hold, however, CSG is very potent in the area and I think this one will fall. Independent gain.
Terrigal - Liberal hold.
The Entrance – Seat to watch. The natural dynamics of this seat suggest that this should be a Labor gain, and I think it will, but the other forces being exerted suggests this will go down to the wire again. However, if there is a strong result either way it’ll be pretty indicative.
Tweed – Seat to watch. This SHOULD be a National hold, but if the swing is on in Northern NSW, the degree will be seen here. I still think this will be a National hold.
Upper Hunter - National hold.
Vaucluse - Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Liberal hold.
Wakehurst - Liberal hold.
Wallsend - Labor hold.
Willoughby - Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - Liberal hold.
Wollongong – This is a seat to watch – The Independent is being supported by the popular Mayor, but I doubt will be able to carry the same electoral weight. Hay has had a target on her back for years, but she always seems to survive.
Wyong – Labor gain

TOTALS:
Liberal - 40
National - 14
(Coalition - 54)
Labor - 35
Green - 1
Independent - 3

TPP - 54.4 - 45.6%

[morgieb]

OK predictions again. Except this time I should know what I'm talking about, given I live here, and always have:

Albury - Liberal hold.
Auburn - Labor hold.
Ballina - traditionally a safe Nationals seat at the seat level, but federally this seat is pretty solidly Labor and the sitting MP is retiring. Given the Greens vote is really strong here due, it will prohbaly be a three horse race. If preferences run like they did in Queensland, I forsee a Labor gain here. Otherwise, a narrow National hold.
Balmain - with Firth recontesting, I think the ALP regain this seat. I think the seat will vote Liberal eventually, but if they didn't win it in 2011.....
Bankstown - Labor hold.
Barwon - probably a Nationals hold. That said, it is one of the seats where the anti-CSG campaign is running, and given the seat now has Broken Hill......it could be very fertile territory for an independent.
Bathurst - my bolter. Not prepared to give it to Labor due to the sitting MP's popularity, but it should swing big due to the privatisation thing and also rural discontent towards the Coalition. If Labor wins, this is my "OMG wow" seat that they win, like Bundaberg/Maryborough was in Queensland.
Baulkham Hills - Liberal hold.
Bega - interesting. It would be very marginal on federal figures and there wasn't that big of a swing here in 2011. Certainly it could be a bolter, though I'll play it safe and say it stays in Coalition hands for now.
Blacktown - Labor hold.
Blue Mountains - traditionally a bellwether, the district feels like it is trending in Labor's favour (they may well have held the electorate under CPV in 2011, and it is pretty safe for them federally), so I'm calling this a Labor gain.
Cabramatta - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Camden - with the district being more obviously exurban since the redistribution, this should be a Liberal seat until Labor are well entrenched in government.
Campbelltown - despite the redistribution making the district 1. better for the Liberals and 2. Liberal held on federal figures, this should probably flip back to Labor.
Canterbury - Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Liberal hold.
Cessnock - Labor hold.
Charlestown - Labor hold. Will be interested to see the margin though - the Liberals didn't contest the by-election, but they did very well here in 2011.
Clarence - National hold, albeit with a big swing against them.
Coffs Harbour - ditto.
Coogee - tough. If preferences work like they did in Queensland, Labor gain. Otherwise a Liberal hold. Might not swing particularly big either.
Cootamundra - National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Liberal hold.
Drummoyne - there will probably be some correction in Labor's favour, but the seat should remain Liberal in this election.
Dubbo - National hold.
East Hills - too marginal for the Liberals to hold, but the swing might not be that great.
Epping - Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Gosford - tough to call. Gut feel that Holstein will barely hang on due to the fact that he wasn't ICAC'd possibly helping his centrist credentials.
Goulburn - probably a Liberal hold, but the area has been receptive to Labor in the (admittedly distant) past and Labor have a strong candidate here....
Granville - one of the first seats to flip back to Labor.
Hawkesbury - Liberal hold.
Heathcote - with the redistribution this looks safer for the Liberals. Shouldn't flip this election, anyway.
Heffron - Labor hold.
Holsworthy - could go either way. I think the fact that the sitting MP is from the Sutherland side of the district (which got carved out of the district in the redistribution) rather than the Liverpool side suggests that Labor narrowly pinch it.
Hornsby - Liberal hold.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama - interesting one. Think Labor pick it up.
Kogarah - Labor hold, perhaps with a below-average swing.
Ku-ring-gai - Liberal hold.
Lake Macquarie - Independent hold presumably.
Lakemba - Labor hold.
Lane Cove - Liberal hold.
Lismore - traditionally a conservative seat at the state level, nowhere in the state is the anti-CSG campaign biting harder. Will come down to how tight the Labor and Greens preference flows are.
Liverpool - Labor hold.
Londonderry - should be a fairly straight forward Labor gain.
Macquarie Fields - despite the retirement of the sitting MP and the redistribution, the seat should flip back to Labor.
Maitland - probable Labor gain.
Manly - Liberal hold.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda - with Collier not recontesting, the seat should go back to the Liberals.
Monaro - had Whan decided against a rematch the seat might have been salvagable. As it is.....
Mount Druitt - Labor hold.
Mulgoa - will probably go to the winner. For now, narrow Liberal hold.
Murray - National hold.
Myall Lakes - National hold.
Newcastle - Labor hold, probably with a slightly reduced margin to the by-election.
Newtown - tough. Both Labor and the Greens have their chances here. Forced to call, I'd say the Greens narrowly hold, though Labor IMO have the stronger candidate.
North Shore - Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands - National hold.
Oatley - despite the small margin, I actually think the Liberals hang on here, given that the area voted Liberal fairly comfortably in 2013, and the fact that the highly popular Kevin Greene is no longer there.
Orange - National hold.
Oxley - National hold.
Parramatta - key contest, could be crucial towards deciding who wins. Narrow Liberal hold perhaps.
Penrith - with Jackie Kelly (ex-MP for the local federal seat of Lindsay) contesting as an independent this is very interesting. Hard to call, but for now I'll give the edge towards Ayers (the Liberal candidate and sitting MP) holding on.
Pittwater - Liberal hold.
Port Macquarie - National hold.
Port Stephens - with the sitting MP ICAC'd, and a below average swing here in 2011, I think Labor narrowly pick it up.
Prospect - if Labor can't win this back, they may as well give up.
Riverstone - probably a Liberal hold, but it would be Labor held on federal results (mostly due to Jaymes Diaz, but still....), so if the night is really good for Labor, there is upset potential here.
Rockdale - fairly routine Labor gain.
Ryde - Liberal hold, though with a big correction in Labor's favour.
Seven Hills - with Rees retiring, and an unfavourable redistribution to drag this into more Liberal-friendly territory in the Hills, I think the Liberals narrowly hold on unless it's a bad night for them.
Shellharbour - Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberals probably hold on here.
Strathfield - if Labor had pre-selected a low profile candidate I'd give the Liberals a good chance of hanging on here against the swing. But Labor did elect a high profile candidate here, one that will join Labor's cabinet and give them some experience, and also should get some sympathy for standing up to property developers/the Terrigals in her first term in parliament. Therefore, probably a Labor gain.
Summer Hill - Labor hold, it will be interesting to see who finished 2nd though.
Swansea - straight forward Labor gain.
Sydney - not sure here. The district is more Liberal now than what it was during Clover's time, and also it's likely that Greenwich doesn't have the same profile Clover did. On the other hand, it's hard to see Liberals gaining districts they don't already have......also their candidate seems a bit weak. Forced to call, Greenwich hangs on.
Tamworth - this will come down to how well the anti-CSG campaign bites. Foley's lack of success in his old district makes me skeptical of Draper's hopes of regaining Tamworth, but if the Nationals start to stink, it'll be very interesting. Forced to call, Nationals hold for now.
Terrigal - although the fact that the long term sitting MP was forced to retire from corruption allegations will hurt the Liberals here, the seat looks a bit too safe for it to fall unless the wind was well in Labor's backs.
The Entrance - another sitting Liberal MP from the Central Coast/Hunter ICAC'd. Will be close, I think Labor pinch this one.
Tweed - the North Coast trends against the Nationals will concern them here, but I'll say it'll be a National hold unless the election is a bad one for them.
Upper Hunter - should be safe for the Nationals, but the anti-CSG campaign is biting here...and it has been more marginal at the federal level in the past. Nationals should hold with a big swing against them, most likely.
Vaucluse - Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Liberal hold.
Wakehurst - Liberal hold.
Wallsend - Labor hold.
Willoughby - Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - with the new boundaries, this seat should be Liberal held for the forseeable future.
Woolongong - like in 2011, a left-leaning Independent is Labor's main challenge in this seat. However given that Bradbury's challenge to Hay didn't pay off in 2011, I'm not seeing a reason why Rorris's will in 2015.
Wyong - with the sitting MP forced to resign and the guy who lost (with a below average swing against him, it must be said) recontesting, this should go back to Labor. Particularly given that Labor held it on federal figures in 2013 despite....you know.

Flip Coogee, Holsworthy, Lismore, The Entrance, Port Stephens, Kiama and Tamworth from my original predictions to the Coalition for the first six, and Draper for Tamworth.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I should also put my ranges in here.

Coalition
Min: 49 Max: 57

Labor
Min: 33 Max: 40

Greens
Min: 0 Max: 3

Independents
Min: 2 Max: 4

My seats to watch - key seats - (more to do with what these races might be telling about the broader story)
Tamworth
The Entrance
Wollongong
Strathfield
Gosford
Tweed
Seven Hills
Oatley
Monaro
Lismore
Granville
East Hills
Campbelltown
Ballina

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Exit Polls

7News/ReachTEL
LNP: 54%
ALP: 46%

Galaxy
LNP: 55%
ALP: 45%

It should be noted that exit polls are still being worked on in Australia for accuracy. It tends to be if they get close to the result, it's accidental.

[morgieb]

Galaxy also says a Liberal win. Not sure on the vote, but there's apparently a 11% swing in regional NSW, and a 8% swing in Sydney.

Hurry up ABC!