New South Wales State Election, 2015
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Author Topic: New South Wales State Election, 2015  (Read 29136 times)
Ebowed
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« Reply #150 on: March 28, 2015, 05:11:26 AM »

ABC projecting 4 seats for the Greens.  Great result!
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Hifly
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« Reply #151 on: March 28, 2015, 05:13:40 AM »
« Edited: March 28, 2015, 05:24:32 AM by Hifly »

Hopefully Penny Sharpe resigns her seat in the Upper House; Helen Westwood has already been defeated tonight.

Also, are those Green vs National counts in Ballina/Lismore actual figures or just speculation by the ABC computer? ie do we only actually know the figures from the Labor vs National count?
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morgieb
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #152 on: March 28, 2015, 05:20:49 AM »

Also, are those Green vs National counts in Ballina/Lismore actual figures or just speculation by the ABC computer? ie do we only actually know the figures from the Labor vs National count?
Speculative figures. But either way the Nationals have lost both seats, and the Greens are 2nd rather comfortably on primary votes.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #153 on: March 28, 2015, 05:41:18 AM »

Apparently Noreen Hay might be in trouble.
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morgieb
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #154 on: March 28, 2015, 05:50:58 AM »

Apparently Noreen Hay might be in trouble.
She's ahead on 20% of the primary vote, so unfortunately it's doubtful.
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morgieb
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #155 on: March 28, 2015, 05:55:24 AM »

Also Upper Hunter is "In Doubt". If only the rest of the state thought like they did.......

An interesting note - most of Labor's seats seem to be on rather safe margins after tonight. So the swing to win a majority of parliament is a fair way over 50% of the vote. Unusual in NSW, given that Labor traditionally use their votes far better than Coalition seats do.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #156 on: March 28, 2015, 06:22:02 AM »
« Edited: March 28, 2015, 06:32:24 AM by Talleyrand »

Labor is "ahead" in Upper Hunter according to ABC.

Now it's back to safe National hold.
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Knives
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« Reply #157 on: March 28, 2015, 06:42:58 AM »

Godawful result for NSW Labor but they really didn't deserve any better.
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Hifly
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« Reply #158 on: March 28, 2015, 07:19:12 AM »

Coalition gaining 2 seats in the Upper House on current figures, putting them on the cusp of a majority with 21 seats.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #159 on: March 28, 2015, 10:36:36 AM »

Some interesting patterns even if the overall result is exceedingly vanilla and exactly what would normally be expected from this sort of election.

Upper Hunter's big swing is hilarious as that was the part of the federal division of Hunter that swung massively against the ALP in 2013. What's going on up there? Tongue
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Ebowed
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« Reply #160 on: March 28, 2015, 04:02:30 PM »

Some interesting patterns even if the overall result is exceedingly vanilla and exactly what would normally be expected from this sort of election.

I have to admit I find great pleasure in this result.  I foreshadowed as soon as Luke Foley took over and announced a $100 million tax cut for the horse and greyhound racing industries that he would crash and burn, and yesterday, he ceded another 3 legislative seats to the Greens and didn't even bother to mention them in his concession ("we are now a serious opposition!" no).  I guess Labor still has further to go before they learn their lesson.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #161 on: March 28, 2015, 04:21:32 PM »

Looks like the highlight of this election is the Greens' victory in 4 seats, including two country seats. Pretty incredible.


Here are all the National seats which have become marginal or fairly safe (under 10% at this point).

1. Tweed (1.8% v. ALP) (-19.9%)
2. Monaro (1.9% v. ALP) (-0.1%)
3. Upper Hunter (3.5% v. ALP) (-19.5%)
4. Myall Lakes (7.8% v. ALP) (-20.8%)
5. Clarence (9.7% v. ALP) (-22.1%)

Some Liberal seats in the country have also become marginal or fairly safe, such as Bega and Goulburn, but I don't know where you cross the line between city and country for a lot of their seats, especially those on the coasts.

The current 2PP stands at 54.8-45.2 across the state, a 9.3% swing to the ALP.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #162 on: March 28, 2015, 05:20:15 PM »



Map outline credit to Smid
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CrabCake
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« Reply #163 on: March 28, 2015, 05:23:00 PM »

Well I'm surprised that Greens seem to be reaching out of their urbanite latte heartlands.

Btw, why did the 'no land tax' party receive so many votes? Snazzy campaign? Sexy candidates?
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morgieb
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« Reply #164 on: March 28, 2015, 05:53:03 PM »

Well I'm surprised that Greens seem to be reaching out of their urbanite latte heartlands.

Btw, why did the 'no land tax' party receive so many votes? Snazzy campaign? Sexy candidates?
They ran in every seat, which probably helped. 1.9% of the vote isn't large.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #165 on: March 28, 2015, 05:54:07 PM »

Well I'm surprised that Greens seem to be reaching out of their urbanite latte heartlands.

Btw, why did the 'no land tax' party receive so many votes? Snazzy campaign? Sexy candidates?
They ran in every seat, which probably helped. 1.9% of the vote isn't large.

Large for a party I've never heard of Tongue
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Ebowed
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« Reply #166 on: March 28, 2015, 05:56:40 PM »

Btw, why did the 'no land tax' party receive so many votes? Snazzy campaign? Sexy candidates?

They had as many campaign workers as Greens and Labor, except they were paid $30/hr, and didn't have anything to do with the No Land Tax Party other than the paid gig.  So with a strong presence handing out how-to-vote cards I guess it was enough to snag a consistent 2-3%.

One of the workers my friend spoke to at Marrickville Town Hall said he was more of a Greens guy, but a job is a job.  Further into town, another one had showed up at 7:30 asking what they were supposed to do and where they were supposed to go.  The election administrators didn't know who she was until she pulled out her uniform, 'NO LAND TAX' in black on yellow background.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #167 on: March 28, 2015, 06:57:34 PM »

I always thought of the Australian Greens as a heavily urban party. What's different this time?

In Ontario, the Greens actually do better slightly better in rural areas. Canada's Greens are more moderate politically but still have the latte-type image typical of Green parties. If the Greens here starting winning seats it would be a mix of urban and rural seats like NSW.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #168 on: March 28, 2015, 07:14:28 PM »

The North Coast is full of retired hippies, basically. It's not really a country area in the usual Australian sense of the term anymore.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #169 on: March 28, 2015, 07:18:49 PM »

The North Coast is full of retired hippies, basically. It's not really a country area in the usual Australian sense of the term anymore.

That plus a group of farmers who have good reason not to believe Labor or National promises regarding coal seam gas.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #170 on: March 28, 2015, 07:23:12 PM »

The little added extra that presumably led to a win this time; yes that makes sense.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #171 on: March 28, 2015, 07:28:32 PM »

But regarding NSW Labor, regaining voters (and seats) they should never have lost, but not convincing other parts of the electorate. Contrast (say) Campbelltown or the Hunter seats with the results in more natural marginals. This pattern did not show itself in constituency polling, I must note. Anyway, will this mean that certain irritating media narratives will finally die a death or is that a forlorn hope?
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #172 on: March 28, 2015, 07:40:38 PM »

I think the Monaro result, weirdly enough, can be described as a "correction" from 2011 since there was an abnormally small swing there (so no inflated margin to be sliced at) and the popular ALP incumbent had been replaced by a popular NAT incumbent who had four years to create some goodwill within the community.

I actually like Steve Whan quite a bit, so I hope he isn't serious about quitting politics since Labor needs more strong regional faces.
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morgieb
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« Reply #173 on: March 28, 2015, 08:14:35 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2015, 08:26:31 PM by morgieb »

*Provisional* pendulum - will be updated at the close of counting:

Castle Hill   29.5%
Davidson   29.5%
Manly   28.9%
Wakehurst   26.9%
Northern Tablelands   25.2%
Pittwater*   25.1%
Murray   24.8%
Willoughby   24.8%
North Shore   23.7%
Ku-ring-gai   23.3%
Orange   21.8%
Baulkham Hills   21.7%
Vaucluse*   21.6%
Hawkesbury   21.3%
Cronulla   21.2%
Cootamundra   20.7%
Drummoyne   19.8%
Hornsby   19.5%
Port Macquarie   18.9%
Camden   18.8%
Lane Cove   18.8%
Dubbo   18.7%
Epping   17.3%
Wollondilly   17.1%
Bathurst   16.0%
Barwon   14.9%
Parramatta   14.7%
Coffs Harbour   13.8%
Wagga Wagga   13.5%
Albury   13.4%
Miranda   13.4%
Ryde   11.4%
Tamworth*   11.2%
Oxley   10.8%
Mulgoa   10.7%
Clarence   9.8%
Riverstone   9.8%
Seven Hills   9.4%
Holsworthy   8.9%
Terrigal   8.4%
------SWING required for Labor to win majority------
Kiama   7.9%
Myall Lakes   7.8%
Bega   7.5%
South Coast   7.4%
Goulburn   7.3%
------SWING required for Liberals to lose majority------
Heathcote   7.1%
Oatley   6.9%
Penrith   6.0%
Upper Hunter   3.5%
Coogee   2.2%
Monaro   1.9%
Tweed   1.8%
East Hills   1.0%
Gosford   -0.6%
The Entrance   -0.9%
Strathfield   -1.3%
Prospect   -1.8%
Granville   -3.9%
Rockdale   -4.9%
Port Stephens   -5.5%
Auburn   -5.8%
Macquarie Fields   -7.6%
Campbelltown   -7.7%
Blue Mountains   -8.1%
Kogarah   -8.1%
Londonderry   -8.8%
Newcastle   -9.2%
Wyong   -9.3%
Summer Hill*   -10.2%
Maroubra   -10.5%
Swansea   -12.6%
Charlestown   -13.0%
Blacktown   -13.2%
Maitland   -13.7%
Mount Druitt   -14.2%
Bankstown   -14.9%
Heffron   -15.2%
Wollongong   -15.8%
Cabramatta   -16.1%
Canterbury   -16.1%
Shellharbour   -17.9%
Fairfield   -18.0%
Keira   -18.0%
Liverpool   -21.2%
Wallsend   -21.2%
Lakemba   -22.2%
Cessnock   -22.4%

* indicates not a traditional Labor/Coalition contest.
Bold indicates seats won at the 2015 election.
Italics indicates seats won at a by-election and held by the winning by-election party.

Other seats (in event of hung parliament, all would likely back a Labor government, in contrast to most Independent seats)

Greens:

Newtown   10.9%
Ballina   7.3%
Balmain   4.8%
Lismore   0.6%

Independent:

Sydney   10.8%
Lake Macquarie   9.0%
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #174 on: March 28, 2015, 08:47:09 PM »

Unfortunately it seems like the Nationals might make it over the line in Lismore in the end, although it's still pretty close.
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