New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Ebowed]

Unfortunately it seems like the Nationals might make it over the line in Lismore in the end, although it's still pretty close.

Greens back ahead

[Hifly]

Excellent news coming in from late counting- the Greens haven't won Lismore! National retain.

[Talleyrand]

The current count on the ABC is still an ALP v. National one, so it's too early to call, and Antony Green makes some good points in the link below.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/ballina-and-lismore-updates.html

That said, the National primary vote is very high.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The current count on the ABC is still an ALP v. National one, so it's too early to call, and Antony Green makes some good points in the link below.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/03/ballina-and-lismore-updates.html

That said, the National primary vote is very high.

Anthony thinks it's tight, but the database is kind of unprepared for this outcome so the projected result on ABC isn't correct.

[Talleyrand]

As for the other seats still in play, it seems like the Liberals will hold on to Gosford fairly easily while The Entrance is still close.

It should end up being around 55 seats for the Coalition in the end, so very similar to the scale of Bob Carr's re-elections.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As for the other seats still in play, it seems like the Liberals will hold on to Gosford fairly easily while The Entrance is still close.

It should end up being around 55 seats for the Coalition in the end, so very similar to the scale of Bob Carr's re-elections.

Gosford was always going to be a tough ask for Labor.

[morgieb]

As for the other seats still in play, it seems like the Liberals will hold on to Gosford fairly easily while The Entrance is still close.

It should end up being around 55 seats for the Coalition in the end, so very similar to the scale of Bob Carr's re-elections.

From what I can tell Labor are in a better position to win The Entrance than Liberals are in Gosford. I think the remaining special votes would be leaning more towards absentees than postals.

Also East Hills is getting tight.

[Hifly]

Ben Raue and Kevin Bonham are both predicting narrow Liberal wins in Gosford, while The Entrance could go either way.

[Talleyrand]

The counting today has been interesting. The Liberals gained in both The Entrance and Gosford, but overperformed in the former and underperformed in the latter. Now the former is basically a tossup while the latter has the Liberals very narrowly favored assuming late patterns hold up.

East Hills' Liberal lead has blown out to almost 800 votes, so Labor's best chance there is a court throwing out the result.

The Nationals are continuing to gain in the primary vote in Lismore, but Green-friendly absences haven't come in yet, and we don't know anything about the actual preference flow from the ALP.

[Vosem]

The No Land Tax party's candidate in the electorate of Bega apparently died in 1945: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-31/no-tax-party-bega-candidate-may-not-be-alive/6361410

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The No Land Tax party's candidate in the electorate of Bega apparently died in 1945: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-31/no-tax-party-bega-candidate-may-not-be-alive/6361410

That's probably the case for a lot of the population of the Bega Valley.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-01/nsw-2015-election-results-booth-map/6353688

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

For people who enjoy the insane world of Aussie micro parties the No Land Tax party is looking more and more suspect by the day. It's apparently attacking its own workers who were promised substantial amounts of moneh to shill for their 'party'. Apparently they assumed they would get over the 4% threshold for public funding, which means an already indebted party has a whole load of angry workers who may have just been duped.

Lead candidate Peter Jones, who currently has his voicemail set up to reassure workers they will be paid, is lambasting anybody who 'defames' the party or is 'rude'. Even weirder most of the workers apparently thought they were being employed by the Electoral Comission, until they got given their shilling orders. Jones had his share of controversy before the election, though, when people realised he was sending lewd messages to various Liberal members (including a member of the cabinet) and was disendorsed by his own number three candidate.

Good news, though. The candidate for Bega was found alive! He is actually a chef in Sydney!! Hooray!!


The No Land Tax Party currently has a reasonable chance of getting the 21st seat in the upper house.

[Ebowed]

Excellent news coming in from late counting- the Greens haven't won Lismore! National retain.

What kind of red avatar salivates at a victory for the Nationals?  Please.

[Boston Bread]

Excellent news coming in from late counting- the Greens haven't won Lismore! National retain.

What kind of red avatar salivates at a victory for the Nationals?  Please.

I think Hifly is a CDU/CSU supporter. It isn't outlandish that a voter who is centre-right in a German context would prefer the Democrats.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think Hifly just really, really loathes greenies. He hates Greens more than I hate Slovakian democracy

[politicus]

I think Hifly just really, really loathes greenies. He hates Greens more than I hate Slovakian democracy

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor claiming both Gosford and The Entrance... risky in my mind, considering the lead in Gosford is 18 votes and TE is 138.

[Talleyrand]

Gosford is now at 69 votes, and there are very few votes yet to be counted.

Disappointing about Lismore, but it'll be a very good target for the ALP/Greens next time around, especially if the popular incumbent (now 66) retires by then.

54 Coalition (37 Liberal, 17 National), 34 Labor, 3 Green, 2 Independent

[Ebowed]

Nationals declared official winner in Lismore, FTR.

Nationals 52.9 - Greens 47.1.

Still a great result and a 21.5% swing to the Greens!

[MaxQue]

Where all seats declared or there is still a seat like Gosford up in the air?

[morgieb]

Where all seats declared or there is still a seat like Gosford up in the air?

I think all seats we know who are winning them. Not sure if they've been declared yet.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Upper house results finalised:

Coalition 20
Labor 12
Green 5
Christians 2
Shooters 2
Animal Justice 1

The AJP snagged the last seat, and (as far as I know) its very first state level seat in Australia.

Baird needs two votes to pass his agenda. It seems that privatisation will get through the Nile crew, presumably for tit-for-tat support of something stupid.

[BaconBacon96]

The AJP snagged the last seat, and (as far as I know) its very first state level seat in Australia.

That pleases me for some reason.

[Ebowed]

The AJP snagged the last seat, and (as far as I know) its very first state level seat in Australia.

That pleases me for some reason.

It's good news for a couple of reasons:
- The AJP is new, and this is only its second contested election.  For them to beat out the No Land Tax Party for the final seat with a campaign budget of $12,000 was both not predicted but also gives them a leg up in establishing themselves as a political fixture, which is important because
- Mark Pearson, leader of Animals Liberation Australia, will be the first ever Australian politician elected as a voice to represent animals, and he is a legitimate and credible voice who will be able to, hopefully, negotiate against the 'ag gag' laws increasing penalties for exposure of animal cruelty, and then we can maybe look at a ban on puppy farms, get rid of greyhound racing, and other nasties that are currently tolerated...