New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Ebowed]

It's going to be nice to see NSW Labor have a socially conservative leader from next week, taking a stand against the Greens' agenda.

The Coalition has enough of a stranglehold on this state as it is.

[Ebowed]

'In his first major policy announcement as NSW Labor Leader, Luke Foley has today pledged to grant the racing industry a $100 million a year tax break if he wins the March election.'

Two things we didn't have enough of, animal cruelty and gambling.

I won't be shedding any tears over his inevitable electoral failure...

[Ebowed]

Luke Foley needs to get his priorities in order.  I don't want to begin to understand a mindset where gambling is a good thing while there shouldn't be marriage equality for same-sex couples.  Maybe instead of running leaders who "borrow" their policy proposals from The Daily Telegraph, Labor should find a viable candidate or a likeable leftwinger (or, preferably, both).





I'm hoping for a Greens pickup in Newtown.  I think Summer Hill is a bit less likely (my old electorate, Marrickville, was an ALP stronghold but has been split), but it would be nice if people stopped supporting the defunct vehicle for progressive policies that is the NSW ALP.

[Ebowed]

In contrast to the despicable Luke Foley, Mike Baird is calling on Tony to be more humane in his approach to refugees.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-premier-mike-baird-tells-prime-minister-tony-abbott-do-more-to-help-refugees-20150123-12wwcj.html

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Of course, this doesn't change the fact that he wants to sell off state assets left and right, but the Labor party is hardly in a position to fight him.

It's truly stunning, comparing with the situation in QLD.  Maybe Labor thought they were going to lose anyway so they chose the worst possible person to lead their party just so that he would retire from this role in disgrace.  But that would be giving them too much credit.

[Ebowed]

The result in Queensland yesterday, an amazing one to be sure, does rub a little bit of salt in the wounds when we consider that the Liberals will be returned in NSW.  After two one-term Liberal governments being shot down in a row, third time's a charm for the Liberal Nationalists.

Victoria was not so much of a surprise, but if a state like QLD can get its act together, it really makes one wonder about the pathetic state of the NSW ALP.

[Ebowed]

AusGrid contractors are removing signs for Labor and Green candidates from electricity poles, threatening the parties with $50 per violation.  Both of these parties oppose the privatisation of AusGrid.



This brand new policy of disallowing campaign signs on electricity poles from AusGrid has also been forwarded to the NSW Liberals, which say they are more than happy to comply (I haven't seen any Liberal signs, but that's due to my area so I can't draw any conclusions from that).

[Ebowed]

On the plus side, unlike QLD and Vic, because of the election being upcoming rather than just occurred, our greyhound racing board in NSW was disbanded (slightly old news, but I still find it amusing).  Whether that will result in any meaningful reform (preferably, a total ban of the practice), I'm not too optimistic, especially as I can't see either the Liberal or Labor parties here making a serious effort to combat animal cruelty and gambling.  With Labor's seeming capitulation on WestConnex and similar congestion timebombs, it's very hard to see them making a real contest here.  They just haven't presented enough of an opposition to much of the Liberal agenda.

[Ebowed]

Antony Green's assessment.

I don't quite agree, I think he is overcompensating for a reluctance to embrace the result as it was in QLD.  With a result like 69-31 for preferred premier, it's difficult to see a government change without a polling shift.

[Ebowed]

Penny Sharpe seems like a terrible candidate for Newtown, what with the whole WestConnex fiasco, even if Labor has come up with an alternate 'solution' that avoids King street.  The Greens vote share will probably go up this year from 2011, so what makes you so sure that Balmain would also fall?

As for Summer Hill second place (it's where I live), it's tough to say.  I'd like to say the Greens as I've seen no campaign presence by the Liberals here, but that's almost always the case.  There are plenty of people who will come out and vote for the Liberals without anyone needing to tell them to.

[Ebowed]

Penny Sharpe seems like a terrible candidate for Newtown, what with the whole WestConnex fiasco, even if Labor has come up with an alternate 'solution' that avoids King street.  The Greens vote share will probably go up this year from 2011, so what makes you so sure that Balmain would also fall?

As for Summer Hill second place (it's where I live), it's tough to say.  I'd like to say the Greens as I've seen no campaign presence by the Liberals here, but that's almost always the case.  There are plenty of people who will come out and vote for the Liberals without anyone needing to tell them to.

Greens typically lose support as the election rolls on. More importantly, there'll be a drop of the Liberal vote.

Did you see the leaders' debate last night?  Mike Baird usually comes across as fairly likeable and charismatic, but somehow putting him next to the unlikeable and uncharismatic Luke Foley made him look sort of awful too.  I don't see how either of them really could have "won" that debate.

The Greens vote share plunging as the election nears is no guarantee.  Increases from the previous result were present in the recent Victorian and Queensland elections.  There are plenty of good reasons for voters to be reluctant to embrace either of the major parties in the current electoral climate.

[Ebowed]

Guardian/Lonergan has it as 55-45 to the Coalition, while Galaxy has it at 54-46.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/21/new-south-wales-election-minus-one-week/

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/reachtel-labor-leads-in-ballina-newtown-and-strathfield/

There are also three electorate polls, showing some fairly surprising results.

In Ballina, Labor is ahead of the Nationals 52.2-47.8.

In Strathfield, Labor is ahead of the Liberals only 50.8-49.2.

In Newtown, Labor is ahead of the Greens 56.5-43.5.

That is a surprise.  And a very mixed bag...

[Ebowed]

How accurate are Australian electorate polls?

Not especially.

If these are to be believed, the Labor party is doing better in regional communities than in some of the western suburbs.  Which might explain why the Coalition has such a good statewide result.  IIRC, Strathfield is normally a safe Labor area.  I don't know what to make of the Newtown poll, except that I hope it's inaccurate.

[Ebowed]

I haven't seen much evidence of a Labor campaign in Newtown at all, just a bit on ABC about Penny Sharpe targeting the gay community with dating apps.  (Likewise Alex Greenwich.)

The only reason I'm even worried about a Greens loss there is because of the polling and consensus here.

I think Balmain will hold, too.  The Greens should get 2nd in Summer Hill and potentially Lismore (against the Nats).  The Liberals campaign in Heffron also deserves well beyond third place, it's been very visibly phoned in, but the demographic there might be able to help them keep 2nd.

[Ebowed]

Labor was out and early this morning in my part of town, plastering their presence everywhere, including on the bus route maps, outside the church.  Summer Hill theoretically presents a 12.8% advantage to Labor, I believe.  Incidentally, the Liberals candidate stopped turning up to events, had dropped off of Facebook, and meanwhile had a number of complaints from Ashfield council just this year for obnoxious behaviour in her capacity as councilor.  I look forward to seeing the breakdown for this seat, should be interesting.

[Ebowed]

Greens in 2nd in Heffron (huzzah), Ballina, Lismore, Manly (lol).

1st in Newtown, Balmain.

3rd in Summer Hill.

[Ebowed]

ABC projecting 4 seats for the Greens.  Great result!

[Ebowed]

Some interesting patterns even if the overall result is exceedingly vanilla and exactly what would normally be expected from this sort of election.

I have to admit I find great pleasure in this result.  I foreshadowed as soon as Luke Foley took over and announced a $100 million tax cut for the horse and greyhound racing industries that he would crash and burn, and yesterday, he ceded another 3 legislative seats to the Greens and didn't even bother to mention them in his concession ("we are now a serious opposition!" no).  I guess Labor still has further to go before they learn their lesson.

[Ebowed]

Btw, why did the 'no land tax' party receive so many votes? Snazzy campaign? Sexy candidates?

They had as many campaign workers as Greens and Labor, except they were paid $30/hr, and didn't have anything to do with the No Land Tax Party other than the paid gig.  So with a strong presence handing out how-to-vote cards I guess it was enough to snag a consistent 2-3%.

One of the workers my friend spoke to at Marrickville Town Hall said he was more of a Greens guy, but a job is a job.  Further into town, another one had showed up at 7:30 asking what they were supposed to do and where they were supposed to go.  The election administrators didn't know who she was until she pulled out her uniform, 'NO LAND TAX' in black on yellow background.

[Ebowed]

The North Coast is full of retired hippies, basically. It's not really a country area in the usual Australian sense of the term anymore.

That plus a group of farmers who have good reason not to believe Labor or National promises regarding coal seam gas.

[Ebowed]

Unfortunately it seems like the Nationals might make it over the line in Lismore in the end, although it's still pretty close.

Greens back ahead

[Ebowed]

Excellent news coming in from late counting- the Greens haven't won Lismore! National retain.

What kind of red avatar salivates at a victory for the Nationals?  Please.

[Ebowed]

Nationals declared official winner in Lismore, FTR.

Nationals 52.9 - Greens 47.1.

Still a great result and a 21.5% swing to the Greens!

[Ebowed]

The AJP snagged the last seat, and (as far as I know) its very first state level seat in Australia.

That pleases me for some reason.

It's good news for a couple of reasons:
- The AJP is new, and this is only its second contested election.  For them to beat out the No Land Tax Party for the final seat with a campaign budget of $12,000 was both not predicted but also gives them a leg up in establishing themselves as a political fixture, which is important because
- Mark Pearson, leader of Animals Liberation Australia, will be the first ever Australian politician elected as a voice to represent animals, and he is a legitimate and credible voice who will be able to, hopefully, negotiate against the 'ag gag' laws increasing penalties for exposure of animal cruelty, and then we can maybe look at a ban on puppy farms, get rid of greyhound racing, and other nasties that are currently tolerated...