New South Wales State Election, 2015

[morgieb]

I've read a number of posts predicting an ALP win, what makes people believe this?... is it common place in NSW to elect only a one-term government? the ALP was in power from 1995-2011, is the Liberal government that bad?
Is NSW traditionally an ALP state? correct me if i'm wrong here, I believe that Victoria and SA are considered stronger for the ALP, given their election into government in Victoria after only being in opposition for 1 term (with what I've read a weak leader but also helped by a bad Liberal government) earlier this month (or was it November) and STILL being the government in SA.

Yes. AFAIK it's the only state that didn't have a really long time for the ALP in opposition. In fact the truth is quite the opposite. This has changed recently though.

[morgieb]

I like Mike Baird he seems to have been a good Premier so far and I hope the Coalition get reelected.

Since it's being discussed here, I'll ask why is the SDA union so socially conservative? I know they affiliated with the DLP for many years but I'm unsure as to why a union would be more interested in social conservatism than economic matters. Are the shop workers all traditional Catholics or something?

Most shop workers are women, so AFAIK the SDA being socons has nothing to do with their membership base. Perhaps they're happy with the economic status quo and their DLP links see them fight for socially conservative matters?

As to why they have DLP links? That I can't answer.

[morgieb]

I find that quite a shame though, using what should be an organisation that reflects its members interests to advance your own isolated views.

Its no worse than the (far more common) tendency of unions to be controlled by far-left organisations, tbh.

Is that still prevalent though?

[morgieb]

Heh, Baird won't go close to losing. He isn't an idiot like say Newman or Abbott, and Labor's still a bit on the nose here.

[morgieb]

Admittedly, I am a tad sceptical to make a prediction for NSW just yet, after what happened in QLD. This being said, each state is different, and I can't see Premier Baird and the NSW Coalition losing.

Baird is well-respected and popular, and he may not have the specter of a very unpopular Abbott behind him. In addition to NSW Labor's continuing woes (despite having many more seats than QLD Labor did going into last night's election), it's perfectly reasonable to anticipate a comfortable win for the Coalition. That said, it'll probably not be another 2011-style landslide, but possibly a more solid victory somewhat larger than Carr's in 2001.

Carr didn't win in 2001, his wins were in 1999 and 2003.

I think it'll be tighter than that (at least on the 2PP vote)....I think it'll be a Coalition win eqivalent to Wran's 84 victory.

[morgieb]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

And if preferences go like they did in Queensland, it might be more like 51-49.

[morgieb]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

And if preferences go like they did in Queensland, it might be more like 51-49.

That's one of the biggest lessons to learn from Queensland: you simply can't assume preferences will remain basically unchanged from the last election.

Yeah, while in CPV I tend to favour results which use preferences from the last election, for OPV I prefer polls which use respondent allocated preferences.

[morgieb]

53/47 Coalition according to ReachTEL, both respondent allocated and on 2011 preferences.

And also, from William Bowe, here is the federal election in 2013 on state boundaries:



Some interesting margins.

[morgieb]

No way 2011 preference flows and respondent allocated line up... makes no sense.

Plus that's a weird bloody graph.

In fairness the preference flows are from a 9 point Coalition lead....makes me think that ReachTEL misjudged that years preference flows.

Weird graph? Looks pretty understandable to me - first column the current margin of the district, second column the margin of the district under 2013 results. Unless you're surprised about the margins?

[morgieb]

OK predictions again. Except this time I should know what I'm talking about, given I live here, and always have:

Albury - Liberal hold.
Auburn - Labor hold.
Ballina - traditionally a safe Nationals seat at the seat level, but federally this seat is pretty solidly Labor and the sitting MP is retiring. Given the Greens vote is really strong here due, it will prohbaly be a three horse race. If preferences run like they did in Queensland, I forsee a Labor gain here. Otherwise, a narrow National hold.
Balmain - with Firth recontesting, I think the ALP regain this seat. I think the seat will vote Liberal eventually, but if they didn't win it in 2011.....
Bankstown - Labor hold.
Barwon - probably a Nationals hold. That said, it is one of the seats where the anti-CSG campaign is running, and given the seat now has Broken Hill......it could be very fertile territory for an independent.
Bathurst - my bolter. Not prepared to give it to Labor due to the sitting MP's popularity, but it should swing big due to the privatisation thing and also rural discontent towards the Coalition. If Labor wins, this is my "OMG wow" seat that they win, like Bundaberg/Maryborough was in Queensland.
Baulkham Hills - Liberal hold.
Bega - interesting. It would be very marginal on federal figures and there wasn't that big of a swing here in 2011. Certainly it could be a bolter, though I'll play it safe and say it stays in Coalition hands for now.
Blacktown - Labor hold.
Blue Mountains - traditionally a bellwether, the district feels like it is trending in Labor's favour (they may well have held the electorate under CPV in 2011, and it is pretty safe for them federally), so I'm calling this a Labor gain.
Cabramatta - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Camden - with the district being more obviously exurban since the redistribution, this should be a Liberal seat until Labor are well entrenched in government.
Campbelltown - despite the redistribution making the district 1. better for the Liberals and 2. Liberal held on federal figures, this should probably flip back to Labor.
Canterbury - Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Liberal hold.
Cessnock - Labor hold.
Charlestown - Labor hold. Will be interested to see the margin though - the Liberals didn't contest the by-election, but they did very well here in 2011.
Clarence - National hold, albeit with a big swing against them.
Coffs Harbour - ditto.
Coogee - tough. If preferences work like they did in Queensland, Labor gain. Otherwise a Liberal hold. Might not swing particularly big either.
Cootamundra - National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Liberal hold.
Drummoyne - there will probably be some correction in Labor's favour, but the seat should remain Liberal in this election.
Dubbo - National hold.
East Hills - too marginal for the Liberals to hold, but the swing might not be that great.
Epping - Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Gosford - tough to call. Gut feel that Holstein will barely hang on due to the fact that he wasn't ICAC'd possibly helping his centrist credentials.
Goulburn - probably a Liberal hold, but the area has been receptive to Labor in the (admittedly distant) past and Labor have a strong candidate here....
Granville - one of the first seats to flip back to Labor.
Hawkesbury - Liberal hold.
Heathcote - with the redistribution this looks safer for the Liberals. Shouldn't flip this election, anyway.
Heffron - Labor hold.
Holsworthy - could go either way. I think the fact that the sitting MP is from the Sutherland side of the district (which got carved out of the district in the redistribution) rather than the Liverpool side suggests that Labor narrowly pinch it.
Hornsby - Liberal hold.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama - interesting one. Think Labor pick it up.
Kogarah - Labor hold, perhaps with a below-average swing.
Ku-ring-gai - Liberal hold.
Lake Macquarie - Independent hold presumably.
Lakemba - Labor hold.
Lane Cove - Liberal hold.
Lismore - traditionally a conservative seat at the state level, nowhere in the state is the anti-CSG campaign biting harder. Will come down to how tight the Labor and Greens preference flows are.
Liverpool - Labor hold.
Londonderry - should be a fairly straight forward Labor gain.
Macquarie Fields - despite the retirement of the sitting MP and the redistribution, the seat should flip back to Labor.
Maitland - probable Labor gain.
Manly - Liberal hold.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda - with Collier not recontesting, the seat should go back to the Liberals.
Monaro - had Whan decided against a rematch the seat might have been salvagable. As it is.....
Mount Druitt - Labor hold.
Mulgoa - will probably go to the winner. For now, narrow Liberal hold.
Murray - National hold.
Myall Lakes - National hold.
Newcastle - Labor hold, probably with a slightly reduced margin to the by-election.
Newtown - tough. Both Labor and the Greens have their chances here. Forced to call, I'd say the Greens narrowly hold, though Labor IMO have the stronger candidate.
North Shore - Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands - National hold.
Oatley - despite the small margin, I actually think the Liberals hang on here, given that the area voted Liberal fairly comfortably in 2013, and the fact that the highly popular Kevin Greene is no longer there.
Orange - National hold.
Oxley - National hold.
Parramatta - key contest, could be crucial towards deciding who wins. Narrow Liberal hold perhaps.
Penrith - with Jackie Kelly (ex-MP for the local federal seat of Lindsay) contesting as an independent this is very interesting. Hard to call, but for now I'll give the edge towards Ayers (the Liberal candidate and sitting MP) holding on.
Pittwater - Liberal hold.
Port Macquarie - National hold.
Port Stephens - with the sitting MP ICAC'd, and a below average swing here in 2011, I think Labor narrowly pick it up.
Prospect - if Labor can't win this back, they may as well give up.
Riverstone - probably a Liberal hold, but it would be Labor held on federal results (mostly due to Jaymes Diaz, but still....), so if the night is really good for Labor, there is upset potential here.
Rockdale - fairly routine Labor gain.
Ryde - Liberal hold, though with a big correction in Labor's favour.
Seven Hills - with Rees retiring, and an unfavourable redistribution to drag this into more Liberal-friendly territory in the Hills, I think the Liberals narrowly hold on unless it's a bad night for them.
Shellharbour - Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberals probably hold on here.
Strathfield - if Labor had pre-selected a low profile candidate I'd give the Liberals a good chance of hanging on here against the swing. But Labor did elect a high profile candidate here, one that will join Labor's cabinet and give them some experience, and also should get some sympathy for standing up to property developers/the Terrigals in her first term in parliament. Therefore, probably a Labor gain.
Summer Hill - Labor hold, it will be interesting to see who finished 2nd though.
Swansea - straight forward Labor gain.
Sydney - not sure here. The district is more Liberal now than what it was during Clover's time, and also it's likely that Greenwich doesn't have the same profile Clover did. On the other hand, it's hard to see Liberals gaining districts they don't already have......also their candidate seems a bit weak. Forced to call, Greenwich hangs on.
Tamworth - this will come down to how well the anti-CSG campaign bites. Foley's lack of success in his old district makes me skeptical of Draper's hopes of regaining Tamworth, but if the Nationals start to stink, it'll be very interesting. Forced to call, Nationals hold for now.
Terrigal - although the fact that the long term sitting MP was forced to retire from corruption allegations will hurt the Liberals here, the seat looks a bit too safe for it to fall unless the wind was well in Labor's backs.
The Entrance - another sitting Liberal MP from the Central Coast/Hunter ICAC'd. Will be close, I think Labor pinch this one.
Tweed - the North Coast trends against the Nationals will concern them here, but I'll say it'll be a National hold unless the election is a bad one for them.
Upper Hunter - should be safe for the Nationals, but the anti-CSG campaign is biting here...and it has been more marginal at the federal level in the past. Nationals should hold with a big swing against them, most likely.
Vaucluse - Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Liberal hold.
Wakehurst - Liberal hold.
Wallsend - Labor hold.
Willoughby - Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - with the new boundaries, this seat should be Liberal held for the forseeable future.
Woolongong - like in 2011, a left-leaning Independent is Labor's main challenge in this seat. However given that Bradbury's challenge to Hay didn't pay off in 2011, I'm not seeing a reason why Rorris's will in 2015.
Wyong - with the sitting MP forced to resign and the guy who lost (with a below average swing against him, it must be said) recontesting, this should go back to Labor. Particularly given that Labor held it on federal figures in 2013 despite....you know.

[morgieb]

Why do you think the Liberals will win seats like Sydney and Balmain down the road? Is it similar to the gentrification situation in Queensland with seats like Brisbane Central and Bulimba?

Basically, yes. In fact, Sydney if you discount Clover would actually be quite solidly Liberal on 2011 results, and even federally Labor probably would've lost it without CPV.

[morgieb]

I have a question:

In other anglo countries such as the Canada, the US and Great Britain, inner city areas that "gentrify" still tend to vote solidly for non-conservative parties - such as electing Democrats to the House of Representatives  in the US, electing Labour or occasionally LibDem MPs in the UK anbd electing Liberals and New Democrats in Canada. The Canadian equivalent of the Liberal Party of Australia would be the Conservative Party... and it will be a cold day in hell before an inner city seat in Toronto will elect a Conservative at any level - no matter gentrified or high income it gets. Similarly no congressional district in Manhattan will elect a Republican - no matter how rich and gentrified it gets.

So how is it that in Australia - people in an inner city socially liberal, gentrified area of Sydney would even think of voting for a rabidly rightwing party led by a Catholic social conservative like the Liberal party of Australia?? Its not as if the ALP is some revolutionary party that wants to confiscate everyone's wealth.

Ehh....they wouldn't vote for an Abbott-led Liberal party, but they may be somewhat receptive to Turnbull. Look at the swing he's got in his own electorate!

UK and Canada are a bit different to Australia as they have three parties not two. I don't think the areas you describe vote Labour/NDP, instead they vote Liberal. And the US is basically redundant, the voting patterns are rather different to what they are here.

There has been some evidence of a softening of the ALP vote in these areas. In addition, these areas are really rich. To get a house around Balmain for example (once a solidly working-class area, look at the amount of pubs there!) is really expensive, like most of the old working-class is being priced out of there. In the long term you're not gonna see the latte liberals that live there now be around, instead it'll be like the mini-North Shore. Look at Drummoyne, a seat John Howard couldn't pick up. It's now pretty solidly Liberal, due to a lot of wealthy waterside developments. The same factors that affected that seat will affect Balmain before too long IMO.

If you add the OPV effect (the latte liberal/champagne socialist vote being split between the ALP and the Greens), then you get a big shot for the LNP to sneak to victory.

Still, this likely won't happen for another 10+ years at least.

[morgieb]

OK predictions again. Except this time I should know what I'm talking about, given I live here, and always have:

Albury - Liberal hold.
Auburn - Labor hold.
Ballina - traditionally a safe Nationals seat at the seat level, but federally this seat is pretty solidly Labor and the sitting MP is retiring. Given the Greens vote is really strong here due, it will prohbaly be a three horse race. If preferences run like they did in Queensland, I forsee a Labor gain here. Otherwise, a narrow National hold.
Balmain - with Firth recontesting, I think the ALP regain this seat. I think the seat will vote Liberal eventually, but if they didn't win it in 2011.....
Bankstown - Labor hold.
Barwon - probably a Nationals hold. That said, it is one of the seats where the anti-CSG campaign is running, and given the seat now has Broken Hill......it could be very fertile territory for an independent.
Bathurst - my bolter. Not prepared to give it to Labor due to the sitting MP's popularity, but it should swing big due to the privatisation thing and also rural discontent towards the Coalition. If Labor wins, this is my "OMG wow" seat that they win, like Bundaberg/Maryborough was in Queensland.
Baulkham Hills - Liberal hold.
Bega - interesting. It would be very marginal on federal figures and there wasn't that big of a swing here in 2011. Certainly it could be a bolter, though I'll play it safe and say it stays in Coalition hands for now.
Blacktown - Labor hold.
Blue Mountains - traditionally a bellwether, the district feels like it is trending in Labor's favour (they may well have held the electorate under CPV in 2011, and it is pretty safe for them federally), so I'm calling this a Labor gain.
Cabramatta - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Camden - with the district being more obviously exurban since the redistribution, this should be a Liberal seat until Labor are well entrenched in government.
Campbelltown - despite the redistribution making the district 1. better for the Liberals and 2. Liberal held on federal figures, this should probably flip back to Labor.
Canterbury - Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Liberal hold.
Cessnock - Labor hold.
Charlestown - Labor hold. Will be interested to see the margin though - the Liberals didn't contest the by-election, but they did very well here in 2011.
Clarence - National hold, albeit with a big swing against them.
Coffs Harbour - ditto.
Coogee - tough. If preferences work like they did in Queensland, Labor gain. Otherwise a Liberal hold. Might not swing particularly big either.
Cootamundra - National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Liberal hold.
Drummoyne - there will probably be some correction in Labor's favour, but the seat should remain Liberal in this election.
Dubbo - National hold.
East Hills - too marginal for the Liberals to hold, but the swing might not be that great.
Epping - Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Gosford - tough to call. Gut feel that Holstein will barely hang on due to the fact that he wasn't ICAC'd possibly helping his centrist credentials.
Goulburn - probably a Liberal hold, but the area has been receptive to Labor in the (admittedly distant) past and Labor have a strong candidate here....
Granville - one of the first seats to flip back to Labor.
Hawkesbury - Liberal hold.
Heathcote - with the redistribution this looks safer for the Liberals. Shouldn't flip this election, anyway.
Heffron - Labor hold.
Holsworthy - could go either way. I think the fact that the sitting MP is from the Sutherland side of the district (which got carved out of the district in the redistribution) rather than the Liverpool side suggests that Labor narrowly pinch it.
Hornsby - Liberal hold.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama - interesting one. Think Labor pick it up.
Kogarah - Labor hold, perhaps with a below-average swing.
Ku-ring-gai - Liberal hold.
Lake Macquarie - Independent hold presumably.
Lakemba - Labor hold.
Lane Cove - Liberal hold.
Lismore - traditionally a conservative seat at the state level, nowhere in the state is the anti-CSG campaign biting harder. Will come down to how tight the Labor and Greens preference flows are.
Liverpool - Labor hold.
Londonderry - should be a fairly straight forward Labor gain.
Macquarie Fields - despite the retirement of the sitting MP and the redistribution, the seat should flip back to Labor.
Maitland - probable Labor gain.
Manly - Liberal hold.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda - with Collier not recontesting, the seat should go back to the Liberals.
Monaro - had Whan decided against a rematch the seat might have been salvagable. As it is.....
Mount Druitt - Labor hold.
Mulgoa - will probably go to the winner. For now, narrow Liberal hold.
Murray - National hold.
Myall Lakes - National hold.
Newcastle - Labor hold, probably with a slightly reduced margin to the by-election.
Newtown - tough. Both Labor and the Greens have their chances here. Forced to call, I'd say the Greens narrowly hold, though Labor IMO have the stronger candidate.
North Shore - Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands - National hold.
Oatley - despite the small margin, I actually think the Liberals hang on here, given that the area voted Liberal fairly comfortably in 2013, and the fact that the highly popular Kevin Greene is no longer there.
Orange - National hold.
Oxley - National hold.
Parramatta - key contest, could be crucial towards deciding who wins. Narrow Liberal hold perhaps.
Penrith - with Jackie Kelly (ex-MP for the local federal seat of Lindsay) contesting as an independent this is very interesting. Hard to call, but for now I'll give the edge towards Ayers (the Liberal candidate and sitting MP) holding on.
Pittwater - Liberal hold.
Port Macquarie - National hold.
Port Stephens - with the sitting MP ICAC'd, and a below average swing here in 2011, I think Labor narrowly pick it up.
Prospect - if Labor can't win this back, they may as well give up.
Riverstone - probably a Liberal hold, but it would be Labor held on federal results (mostly due to Jaymes Diaz, but still....), so if the night is really good for Labor, there is upset potential here.
Rockdale - fairly routine Labor gain.
Ryde - Liberal hold, though with a big correction in Labor's favour.
Seven Hills - with Rees retiring, and an unfavourable redistribution to drag this into more Liberal-friendly territory in the Hills, I think the Liberals narrowly hold on unless it's a bad night for them.
Shellharbour - Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberals probably hold on here.
Strathfield - if Labor had pre-selected a low profile candidate I'd give the Liberals a good chance of hanging on here against the swing. But Labor did elect a high profile candidate here, one that will join Labor's cabinet and give them some experience, and also should get some sympathy for standing up to property developers/the Terrigals in her first term in parliament. Therefore, probably a Labor gain.
Summer Hill - Labor hold, it will be interesting to see who finished 2nd though.
Swansea - straight forward Labor gain.
Sydney - not sure here. The district is more Liberal now than what it was during Clover's time, and also it's likely that Greenwich doesn't have the same profile Clover did. On the other hand, it's hard to see Liberals gaining districts they don't already have......also their candidate seems a bit weak. Forced to call, Greenwich hangs on.
Tamworth - this will come down to how well the anti-CSG campaign bites. Foley's lack of success in his old district makes me skeptical of Draper's hopes of regaining Tamworth, but if the Nationals start to stink, it'll be very interesting. Forced to call, Nationals hold for now.
Terrigal - although the fact that the long term sitting MP was forced to retire from corruption allegations will hurt the Liberals here, the seat looks a bit too safe for it to fall unless the wind was well in Labor's backs.
The Entrance - another sitting Liberal MP from the Central Coast/Hunter ICAC'd. Will be close, I think Labor pinch this one.
Tweed - the North Coast trends against the Nationals will concern them here, but I'll say it'll be a National hold unless the election is a bad one for them.
Upper Hunter - should be safe for the Nationals, but the anti-CSG campaign is biting here...and it has been more marginal at the federal level in the past. Nationals should hold with a big swing against them, most likely.
Vaucluse - Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Liberal hold.
Wakehurst - Liberal hold.
Wallsend - Labor hold.
Willoughby - Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - with the new boundaries, this seat should be Liberal held for the forseeable future.
Woolongong - like in 2011, a left-leaning Independent is Labor's main challenge in this seat. However given that Bradbury's challenge to Hay didn't pay off in 2011, I'm not seeing a reason why Rorris's will in 2015.
Wyong - with the sitting MP forced to resign and the guy who lost (with a below average swing against him, it must be said) recontesting, this should go back to Labor. Particularly given that Labor held it on federal figures in 2013 despite....you know.

So by my calculations:

Coalition: 49
Labor: 41
Other: 3

Coalition 3 seats away from losing their majority....guess this kinda shows how ALP-leaning the boundaries are in NSW.

In general, this is how I think the regions will swing:

Labor "heartland" - aka the Western Suburbs, the Hunter and Illawarra. This area will probably be where the anti-privatisation message will kick the hardest, accordingly I expect these seats to rush back to Labor. Expect the Fairfields, Liverpools, Lakembas, etc. of the world to have 20%+ margins again.

Liberal "heartland" - North Shore/Northern Beaches basically. The North Shore will probably stick with the Liberals for the most part and remain quite safe, though Labor should at least finish 2nd here in the majority of the districts.

The marginal suburbs - think Parramatta, Penrith, Oatley, etc. In contrast to the more underprivileged suburbs, I think this area will (relatively) stick with Baird, due to his more grandoise promises regarding infrastructure, and them being wealthier making Foley's more populist message resonate less with these people. In addition, the so-called "mortgage belt" has traditionally been fairly pro-incumbent, and are willing to back them to the hilt unless they look gone.

Rural NSW - the wildcard. There definitely seems to be some souring towards the Nationals, and it is seen with Labor campaigning in Upper Hunter, an strong anti-CSG campaign in Ballina and Lismore, etc. I think this area will swing big towards Labor, and could tip the Coalition out of government.

[morgieb]

Penny Sharpe seems like a terrible candidate for Newtown, what with the whole WestConnex fiasco, even if Labor has come up with an alternate 'solution' that avoids King street.  The Greens vote share will probably go up this year from 2011, so what makes you so sure that Balmain would also fall?

As for Summer Hill second place (it's where I live), it's tough to say.  I'd like to say the Greens as I've seen no campaign presence by the Liberals here, but that's almost always the case.  There are plenty of people who will come out and vote for the Liberals without anyone needing to tell them to.

Greens typically lose support as the election rolls on. More importantly, there'll be a drop of the Liberal vote.

[morgieb]

How accurate are Australian electorate polls?

Not especially.

If these are to be believed, the Labor party is doing better in regional communities than in some of the western suburbs.  Which might explain why the Coalition has such a good statewide result.  IIRC, Strathfield is normally a safe Labor area.  I don't know what to make of the Newtown poll, except that I hope it's inaccurate.

Only since Pauline Hanson, before that it was Liberal-leaning. Think it'll be a key marginal, though Labor will probably win it barring a poor night statewide.

[morgieb]

I'd be surprised if they hold Campbelltown unless they have a strong night, but the other two don't really shock.

Anyone who's paying attention would realise that the swings were gonna vary big time depending on the region. I pointed that out like ages ago.

Thinking the 2PP vote will be the same as the federal election. Seat wise, probably the Coalition will do a few seats better than I expected a few weeks ago.

[morgieb]

I'll say 54-46 TPP. Seat wise, 54/35/4. Labor don't really do well in Sydney but do manage to get a good swing in the regions.

The ones to watch:

Ballina & Lismore - aka the CSG seats. Labor held on federal figures, and the polling/internal thinking suggests that despite the huge margins Labor have a good shot here. I think Labor pinches Ballina, but not Lismore. It does however come down to preference flows.
Strathfield & Monaro - would probably stay in the Coalition's hand in a bubble....but Labor have strong candidates here and would be trying harder to hold them than the Coalition. Have them voting Labor, narrowly.
Blue Mountains - on paper should be won by Labor, but it is a traditional bellweather. Will be close, at least.
Campbelltown - not as Labor as it once was and is probably beyond the expected swing in Sydney - Galaxy said that the Liberals were ahead here. Giving it to Labor because of its history, but it ought to be tight.
Granville - some talk of Liberals defying the small margin and demographics and holding on. Will be surprised if that happens, but in a strong night for the Coalition, who knows. The sitting member is strong.....
Coogee - 52/48 according to Galaxy. Probably a Liberal hold, but might get interesting if Labor/Green preference flows are tight.
East Hills - only the barest of swings is required to pick this up, but apparently local sources are pessimistic here. Federally the district was stronger for the Liberals than in the state election....
Balmain - think Firth's profile will still see her win, but it's not an easy one to call. Doesn't matter anyway, I can't really see the Liberals winning here particularly given how the preferences are looking like flowing.
Holsworthy/Seven Hills/Mulgoa/Parramatta/Oatley - five suburban marginals. A variety of ethnicities here. It's weird to put them all in the same basket, but whatever. Anyway, given the polls the Liberals should hold all five, but they will be election deciders.
The Entrance/Gosford/Port Stephens - here are three safe-ish Coalition seats that have been bit by the ICAC bug (well, not Gosford). In the case of the former two they are a halfway house in between Sydney and the regions, so the swing will be interesting. The latter is safer but has been Labor held for significant portions of the past. The margins will make it tough for Labor to flip without significant momentum, but an upset is possible if corruption is a big issue at the voting booth.
Kiama - this will come down to what sort of night Labor have. Ought to be close - it's a regional seat, but also a double sophmore surge one. Think the Liberals hold but will be close.
Goulburn/Bathurst/Barwon/Upper Hunter/Tweed/Clarence - these should all be safe on paper, but there's talk that these seats could end up being tighter than expected. With strong Labor movement in the regions, these seats are worth watching, even though I suspect that talk Labor pick these up is merely talk.
Penrith - was probably going to stay Liberal, but if Kelly polls well........add that she's directing preferences to Labor and a boilover is possible.
Tamworth - won't be won by Labor, but the local talk is that Draper should be able to knock off the Nats and return to parliament. Despite my original gut suggesting that his attempts to return to parliament were gonna work as well as Foley's did, I've flip-flopped here.

[morgieb]

We've had three polls out tonight
- A Talleyesque 57.5-42.5 from Morgan (no one believes it)
- ReachTEL has it 54-46 with Green preferences helping Labor
- Newspoll has it as 55-45 but 52-48 on allocated preferences (collapse in the LNP vote outside of Sydney)

Long story short, the Libs will win, but no one has any idea by how much or how little.

Morgieb, the person I was speaking too was not optimistic about Granville, but fairly confident about Oatley FWIW.

Interesting. Media sources are saying the opposite seemingly, but we won't know who's correct for another 10 hours.

[morgieb]

OK predictions again. Except this time I should know what I'm talking about, given I live here, and always have:

Albury - Liberal hold.
Auburn - Labor hold.
Ballina - traditionally a safe Nationals seat at the seat level, but federally this seat is pretty solidly Labor and the sitting MP is retiring. Given the Greens vote is really strong here due, it will prohbaly be a three horse race. If preferences run like they did in Queensland, I forsee a Labor gain here. Otherwise, a narrow National hold.
Balmain - with Firth recontesting, I think the ALP regain this seat. I think the seat will vote Liberal eventually, but if they didn't win it in 2011.....
Bankstown - Labor hold.
Barwon - probably a Nationals hold. That said, it is one of the seats where the anti-CSG campaign is running, and given the seat now has Broken Hill......it could be very fertile territory for an independent.
Bathurst - my bolter. Not prepared to give it to Labor due to the sitting MP's popularity, but it should swing big due to the privatisation thing and also rural discontent towards the Coalition. If Labor wins, this is my "OMG wow" seat that they win, like Bundaberg/Maryborough was in Queensland.
Baulkham Hills - Liberal hold.
Bega - interesting. It would be very marginal on federal figures and there wasn't that big of a swing here in 2011. Certainly it could be a bolter, though I'll play it safe and say it stays in Coalition hands for now.
Blacktown - Labor hold.
Blue Mountains - traditionally a bellwether, the district feels like it is trending in Labor's favour (they may well have held the electorate under CPV in 2011, and it is pretty safe for them federally), so I'm calling this a Labor gain.
Cabramatta - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Camden - with the district being more obviously exurban since the redistribution, this should be a Liberal seat until Labor are well entrenched in government.
Campbelltown - despite the redistribution making the district 1. better for the Liberals and 2. Liberal held on federal figures, this should probably flip back to Labor.
Canterbury - Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Liberal hold.
Cessnock - Labor hold.
Charlestown - Labor hold. Will be interested to see the margin though - the Liberals didn't contest the by-election, but they did very well here in 2011.
Clarence - National hold, albeit with a big swing against them.
Coffs Harbour - ditto.
Coogee - tough. If preferences work like they did in Queensland, Labor gain. Otherwise a Liberal hold. Might not swing particularly big either.
Cootamundra - National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Liberal hold.
Drummoyne - there will probably be some correction in Labor's favour, but the seat should remain Liberal in this election.
Dubbo - National hold.
East Hills - too marginal for the Liberals to hold, but the swing might not be that great.
Epping - Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Gosford - tough to call. Gut feel that Holstein will barely hang on due to the fact that he wasn't ICAC'd possibly helping his centrist credentials.
Goulburn - probably a Liberal hold, but the area has been receptive to Labor in the (admittedly distant) past and Labor have a strong candidate here....
Granville - one of the first seats to flip back to Labor.
Hawkesbury - Liberal hold.
Heathcote - with the redistribution this looks safer for the Liberals. Shouldn't flip this election, anyway.
Heffron - Labor hold.
Holsworthy - could go either way. I think the fact that the sitting MP is from the Sutherland side of the district (which got carved out of the district in the redistribution) rather than the Liverpool side suggests that Labor narrowly pinch it.
Hornsby - Liberal hold.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama - interesting one. Think Labor pick it up.
Kogarah - Labor hold, perhaps with a below-average swing.
Ku-ring-gai - Liberal hold.
Lake Macquarie - Independent hold presumably.
Lakemba - Labor hold.
Lane Cove - Liberal hold.
Lismore - traditionally a conservative seat at the state level, nowhere in the state is the anti-CSG campaign biting harder. Will come down to how tight the Labor and Greens preference flows are.
Liverpool - Labor hold.
Londonderry - should be a fairly straight forward Labor gain.
Macquarie Fields - despite the retirement of the sitting MP and the redistribution, the seat should flip back to Labor.
Maitland - probable Labor gain.
Manly - Liberal hold.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda - with Collier not recontesting, the seat should go back to the Liberals.
Monaro - had Whan decided against a rematch the seat might have been salvagable. As it is.....
Mount Druitt - Labor hold.
Mulgoa - will probably go to the winner. For now, narrow Liberal hold.
Murray - National hold.
Myall Lakes - National hold.
Newcastle - Labor hold, probably with a slightly reduced margin to the by-election.
Newtown - tough. Both Labor and the Greens have their chances here. Forced to call, I'd say the Greens narrowly hold, though Labor IMO have the stronger candidate.
North Shore - Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands - National hold.
Oatley - despite the small margin, I actually think the Liberals hang on here, given that the area voted Liberal fairly comfortably in 2013, and the fact that the highly popular Kevin Greene is no longer there.
Orange - National hold.
Oxley - National hold.
Parramatta - key contest, could be crucial towards deciding who wins. Narrow Liberal hold perhaps.
Penrith - with Jackie Kelly (ex-MP for the local federal seat of Lindsay) contesting as an independent this is very interesting. Hard to call, but for now I'll give the edge towards Ayers (the Liberal candidate and sitting MP) holding on.
Pittwater - Liberal hold.
Port Macquarie - National hold.
Port Stephens - with the sitting MP ICAC'd, and a below average swing here in 2011, I think Labor narrowly pick it up.
Prospect - if Labor can't win this back, they may as well give up.
Riverstone - probably a Liberal hold, but it would be Labor held on federal results (mostly due to Jaymes Diaz, but still....), so if the night is really good for Labor, there is upset potential here.
Rockdale - fairly routine Labor gain.
Ryde - Liberal hold, though with a big correction in Labor's favour.
Seven Hills - with Rees retiring, and an unfavourable redistribution to drag this into more Liberal-friendly territory in the Hills, I think the Liberals narrowly hold on unless it's a bad night for them.
Shellharbour - Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberals probably hold on here.
Strathfield - if Labor had pre-selected a low profile candidate I'd give the Liberals a good chance of hanging on here against the swing. But Labor did elect a high profile candidate here, one that will join Labor's cabinet and give them some experience, and also should get some sympathy for standing up to property developers/the Terrigals in her first term in parliament. Therefore, probably a Labor gain.
Summer Hill - Labor hold, it will be interesting to see who finished 2nd though.
Swansea - straight forward Labor gain.
Sydney - not sure here. The district is more Liberal now than what it was during Clover's time, and also it's likely that Greenwich doesn't have the same profile Clover did. On the other hand, it's hard to see Liberals gaining districts they don't already have......also their candidate seems a bit weak. Forced to call, Greenwich hangs on.
Tamworth - this will come down to how well the anti-CSG campaign bites. Foley's lack of success in his old district makes me skeptical of Draper's hopes of regaining Tamworth, but if the Nationals start to stink, it'll be very interesting. Forced to call, Nationals hold for now.
Terrigal - although the fact that the long term sitting MP was forced to retire from corruption allegations will hurt the Liberals here, the seat looks a bit too safe for it to fall unless the wind was well in Labor's backs.
The Entrance - another sitting Liberal MP from the Central Coast/Hunter ICAC'd. Will be close, I think Labor pinch this one.
Tweed - the North Coast trends against the Nationals will concern them here, but I'll say it'll be a National hold unless the election is a bad one for them.
Upper Hunter - should be safe for the Nationals, but the anti-CSG campaign is biting here...and it has been more marginal at the federal level in the past. Nationals should hold with a big swing against them, most likely.
Vaucluse - Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Liberal hold.
Wakehurst - Liberal hold.
Wallsend - Labor hold.
Willoughby - Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - with the new boundaries, this seat should be Liberal held for the forseeable future.
Woolongong - like in 2011, a left-leaning Independent is Labor's main challenge in this seat. However given that Bradbury's challenge to Hay didn't pay off in 2011, I'm not seeing a reason why Rorris's will in 2015.
Wyong - with the sitting MP forced to resign and the guy who lost (with a below average swing against him, it must be said) recontesting, this should go back to Labor. Particularly given that Labor held it on federal figures in 2013 despite....you know.

Flip Coogee, Holsworthy, Lismore, The Entrance, Port Stephens, Kiama and Tamworth from my original predictions to the Coalition for the first six, and Draper for Tamworth.

[morgieb]

Galaxy also says a Liberal win. Not sure on the vote, but there's apparently a 11% swing in regional NSW, and a 8% swing in Sydney.

Hurry up ABC!

[morgieb]

Looks like Coogee's swing is very small.

HUGE swing in Campbelltown though off 8% of the vote.

[morgieb]

From what I can tell Labor are doing well in their heartland, but aren't gaining significant traction in the suburban marginals and the safe Coalition seats aren't seeing much correction at all.

[morgieb]

So the Coalition is on track to win in Strathfield, East Hills, and Monaro.

Labor is "ahead" in Strathfield seemingly.

[morgieb]

On early figures.....Liberals have a majority in the Upper House.

Though given the lower house vote, this seems surprising.

[morgieb]

Dear God. Luke Foley has a swing AGAINST him in Auburn!

He is such an unappealing person tbh. And plus they Labor totally ignored demographics by parachuting him in.

He's won the seat at least. Will be interesting to see if he stays on. Personally, I wouldn't, but who else is there?