New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Talleyrand]

Admittedly, I am a tad sceptical to make a prediction for NSW just yet, after what happened in QLD. This being said, each state is different, and I can't see Premier Baird and the NSW Coalition losing.

Baird is well-respected and popular, and he may not have the specter of a very unpopular Abbott behind him. In addition to NSW Labor's continuing woes (despite having many more seats than QLD Labor did going into last night's election), it's perfectly reasonable to anticipate a comfortable win for the Coalition. That said, it'll probably not be another 2011-style landslide, but possibly a more solid victory somewhat larger than Carr's in 2001.

tbh there's no way Labor wins NSW.

This. And they don't deserve to do so either right now.

[Talleyrand]

Admittedly, I am a tad sceptical to make a prediction for NSW just yet, after what happened in QLD. This being said, each state is different, and I can't see Premier Baird and the NSW Coalition losing.

Baird is well-respected and popular, and he may not have the specter of a very unpopular Abbott behind him. In addition to NSW Labor's continuing woes (despite having many more seats than QLD Labor did going into last night's election), it's perfectly reasonable to anticipate a comfortable win for the Coalition. That said, it'll probably not be another 2011-style landslide, but possibly a more solid victory somewhat larger than Carr's in 2001.

Carr didn't win in 2001, his wins were in 1999 and 2003.

I think it'll be tighter than that (at least on the 2PP vote)....I think it'll be a Coalition win eqivalent to Wran's 84 victory.

2003, I meant, my bad. Yeah, in terms of seats, something like 1984 for the Coalition government makes sense, but I do expect that they'll end up doing fairly decently on the TPP. Maybe 54-56%, which would still be a 8-10% swing to the ALP from 2011.

[Talleyrand]

First poll after Queensland is out. It's from Fairfax/Ipsos (I don't know their track record).

TPP
LNP- 56% (+2)
Labor- 44% (-2)

Primary
Liberal/National- 46% (+2)
Labor- 34% (-2)
Greens- 12% (+1)
Others- 9% (no change)

Mike Baird Favorability
Approval- 60% (no change)
Disapproval- 18% (no change)

Luke Foley Favorability
Approval- 30%
Disapproval- 21%

Preferred Premier
Baird- 54%
Foley- 24%

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/02/08/fairfaxipsos-56-44-to-coalition-in-nsw/

On respondent-allocated preferences the TPP is actually 53-47; Make of that what you will.

[Talleyrand]

Yes, it's been fixed. My apologies.

[Talleyrand]

Galaxy has it as 53-47 to the Coalition, down from 54-46 last time around.

[Talleyrand]

ReachTel has it 53-47 to the Coalition with primary votes of 45%, 35%, and 10%. Baird approvals are 42-21 while Foley is underwater at 17-27.

Newspoll has it at 54-46, and 43%, 36%, and 11%. Baird is at 59-26 and Foley at 36-31. Preferred Premier is 55-25.

Morgan has virtually the same primary votes as Newspoll, but it's at 52.5-47.5 on the TPP. Baird's at 49-26 and Foley at 28-28. Preferred Premier is 69-31.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/02/27/newspoll-54-46-to-coalition-in-nsw-2/
https://twitter.com/ghostwhovotes

[Talleyrand]

I tend to agree with your analysis overall, Ebowed.

He does have some interesting points in there though, such as the tidbit about the North Coast seats.

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I don't think the ALP is in a position to take any of this trio, but I wonder how much they'll improve. There was also a substantial Greens presence in them, especially in Ballina (I read somewhere the Nationals are slightly worried about a Green upset there).

[Talleyrand]

Using Smid's map in the gallery, here are those federal results on the state boundaries.

[Talleyrand]

Why do you think the Liberals will win seats like Sydney and Balmain down the road? Is it similar to the gentrification situation in Queensland with seats like Brisbane Central and Bulimba?

[Talleyrand]

Is that more of a conservative prediction morgieb? With those numbers being so tight on electorates, it wouldn't take much for Labor to swing into government as they did in Queensland no? if they do even marginally better then expected, in particular in one region or another. As you mention say Rural NSW if they pick up on the anti-CSG vote or in the Mortgage belt if there is an unexpected swing.

It might actually take more- due to the electoral geography of NSW, Labor would need a uniform 20% swing to enter office with a bare majority of 47 seats. However, considering how varied things will be across the board, they'll probably need less than that.

[Talleyrand]

The new Galaxy is out.



http://www.news.com.au/national/latest-poll-premier-mike-baird-building-a-winning-lead/story-e6frfkp9-1227263969877

Also, an interesting internal tidbit from Poll Bludger-

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/16/galaxy-54-46-to-coalition-in-nsw-2/

[Talleyrand]

Apparently an internal by an independent candidate has the National incumbent in Barwon's primary vote cut in half and trailing on preferences. Not buying it, but this might be an interesting seat to watch on election night.

[Talleyrand]

Guardian/Lonergan has it as 55-45 to the Coalition, while Galaxy has it at 54-46.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/21/new-south-wales-election-minus-one-week/

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/reachtel-labor-leads-in-ballina-newtown-and-strathfield/

There are also three electorate polls, showing some fairly surprising results.

In Ballina, Labor is ahead of the Nationals 52.2-47.8.

In Strathfield, Labor is ahead of the Liberals only 50.8-49.2.

In Newtown, Labor is ahead of the Greens 56.5-43.5.

[Talleyrand]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/22/fairfax-ipsos-54-46-to-coalition-in-nsw/

Fairfax/Ipsos has it at 54-46.


Three more electorate polls are out, and all have the Liberals with narrow leads in key seats.

Campbelltown- 51-49 Liberal v. Labor
Coogee- 52-48 Liberal v. Labor
The Entrance- 51-49 Liberal v. Labor

The last two are Sydney seats held on margins of around 6-9% (the sort which fell to Labor in Queensland in January, resulting in the party's victory), but the Coalition seems to be doing a decent job limiting the swings here. The last one is a Central Coast seat with a margin exceeding 10%, so that's a better result for the ALP.

www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-state-election-2015/state-election-liberals-set-to-seize-decisive-victory-this-saturday/story-fnrskx7r-1227273864386

[Talleyrand]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/03/25/new-south-wales-election-minus-three-days/

In short-

The ALP thinks it'll win Ballina from the Nats, and that it has a chance in Lismore, although internals suggest the Greens may be better placed there. The lack of mention of Tweed implies the Coalition will hold it.

There is speculation the Libs can hold Oatley and Granville, despite these being on tiny margins of 3.8% each.

Jackie Kelly is directing preferences to Labor in Penrith.

[Talleyrand]

Final Prediction

56.3-43.7% to the Coalition

Coalition- 61
Labor- 31
Independent-1

-Greg Piper will be the only independent
-Labor will win both Green seats
-Monaro will stay National
-Strathfield will stay Liberal
-The Labor hype in Nat seats like Ballina and Lismore will be proven silly

[Talleyrand]

So the Coalition is on track to win in Strathfield, East Hills, and Monaro.

[Talleyrand]

Looks like Morgieb is right and Labor has edged slightly ahead in Strathfield. However, Oatley has been called for the Liberals.

[Talleyrand]

On early figures.....Liberals have a majority in the Upper House.

Though given the lower house vote, this seems surprising.

On the bright side the Greens might win 4 seats in the LA!

[Talleyrand]

The swings in seats like Upper Hunter and Tweed are massive. They'll probably be decent targets for the Labor party if it does well next time.

[Talleyrand]

Dear God. Luke Foley has a swing AGAINST him in Auburn!

[Talleyrand]

Hmm - looks like Queanbeyan is not turning out as strong...

Antony says these results confirm Monaro as a National hold.

[Talleyrand]

Apparently Noreen Hay might be in trouble.

[Talleyrand]

Labor is "ahead" in Upper Hunter according to ABC.

Now it's back to safe National hold.

[Talleyrand]

Looks like the highlight of this election is the Greens' victory in 4 seats, including two country seats. Pretty incredible.

Here are all the National seats which have become marginal or fairly safe (under 10% at this point).

1. Tweed (1.8% v. ALP) (-19.9%)
2. Monaro (1.9% v. ALP) (-0.1%)
3. Upper Hunter (3.5% v. ALP) (-19.5%)
4. Myall Lakes (7.8% v. ALP) (-20.8%)
5. Clarence (9.7% v. ALP) (-22.1%)

Some Liberal seats in the country have also become marginal or fairly safe, such as Bega and Goulburn, but I don't know where you cross the line between city and country for a lot of their seats, especially those on the coasts.

The current 2PP stands at 54.8-45.2 across the state, a 9.3% swing to the ALP.