New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labor will win, to the surprise of everyone. You heard it here first.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this your prediction?

Intellectually no, I guess, but I do genuinely half expect it to happen all the same...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As to the... issue... here... well it isn't unique to Australia. The Bennite faction in the PLP here (the Socialist Campaign Group)* has always had some members with not terribly liberal stances on certain matters, even if they weren't (aren't) typical overall.

_{*Which, yes, is still around, even if it is a shadow of its former self.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding posts upthread, there's a fundamental misunderstanding of Labor Unity here; excepting the usual careerist drones (found in all political factions of any significance world over, alas) they are genuine social democrats deeply rooted in Australian political tradition (Australia is one of only a handful of countries where trade unionism played a foundational role in its establishment), and not an amorphous centrist blob flying under a red(ish) flag of convenience.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most people don't join a trade union for any politics other than trade unionism...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I find that quite a shame though, using what should be an organisation that reflects its members interests to advance your own isolated views.

Its no worse than the (far more common) tendency of some other unions to be controlled by far-left organisations, tbh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is that still prevalent though?

I'm not sure on the specifics of that kind of thing in Australia, but there are still a few unions here run by hard-left sects (i.e. the PCS). The SDA is the same kind of thing but from the other side...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will post more later, but note for now that Australia has a unique urban geography that does not follow the usual rules.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some interesting patterns even if the overall result is exceedingly vanilla and exactly what would normally be expected from this sort of election.

Upper Hunter's big swing is hilarious as that was the part of the federal division of Hunter that swung massively against the ALP in 2013. What's going on up there?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The North Coast is full of retired hippies, basically. It's not really a country area in the usual Australian sense of the term anymore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The little added extra that presumably led to a win this time; yes that makes sense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But regarding NSW Labor, regaining voters (and seats) they should never have lost, but not convincing other parts of the electorate. Contrast (say) Campbelltown or the Hunter seats with the results in more natural marginals. This pattern did not show itself in constituency polling, I must note. Anyway, will this mean that certain irritating media narratives will finally die a death or is that a forlorn hope?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-01/nsw-2015-election-results-booth-map/6353688