New South Wales State Election, 2015

[Hifly]

With the NSW Parliament up for election in just over 3 months time, and with things starting to get lively, I think it deserves a thread of its own.

To start this thread off, ALP leader John Robertson, struggling to gain popularity among both his caucus and the public, has just resigned after he was found to have written a letter to recommend the Sydney gunman Man Haron Monis.

The two candidates expected to contest for his place as Opposition Leader are Michael Daley, who currently serves as Shadow Treasurer, and Luke Foley, Labor's leader in the Legislative Council.

On factional lines, Daley should have the advantage if he does run, since he's from the Right, but Foley is generally regarded to be one of the State ALP's greatest assets. The issues are that he's from the Left, so would need crossover support, and someone would have to step aside for him so that he can move down into the Assembly.

Needless to say I doubt this whole saga will help the ALP recover and the Coalition looks set for re-election (with room for error).

[Hifly]

ALP head office is backing Foley and the seat he would probably take is Auburn, where there's an ongoing preselection fiasco/branch stacking allegations involving Hicham Zraika and sitting MP Barbara Perry, who would probably stand aside if Foley ran.

If Foley does confirm that he's running, Daily Telegraph sources say that he's likely to win.

The leadership ballot will he held at the beginning of January.

[Hifly]

The latest Newspoll, conducted before John Robertson's resignation, has the Liberals up 56-44 2PP.

[Hifly]

So the race is on: Foley vs Daley. Foley has announced that he will contest the rank & file preselection for Auburn rather than a parachute if he wins.

It's going to be nice to see NSW Labor have a socially conservative leader from next week, taking a stand against the Greens' agenda.

[Hifly]

Labor will win, to the surprise of everyone. You heard it here first.

Is this your prediction?

[Hifly]

It would be nice to see the CDP and/or FFP gain seats.

Both the Labor and Liberal leaders into the election are extremely religious, holding Pro-Life and Pro-Marriage views, so there's no danger of some radical social agenda taking form.

[Hifly]

And it's over: Michel Daley has withdrawn, so Luke Foley will be Labor's new leader!

His election is quite a milestone in NSW Labor history; for the leader, let alone a member of the Hard Left faction to get such significant Sussex Street support is almost unheard of.

LGBT rights activists have already started throwing hissy fits.

http://m.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-labor-leadership-maroubra-mp-michael-daley-withdraws-luke-foley-has-clear-run-to-nsw-labor-leadership-20141230-12fmud.html

[Hifly]

How is it possible for someone to be both "hard left" and also an anti-gay bigoted religious freak??? In the rest of the civilized world you are never considered leftwing if you are no gay-positive. What is it with Australia?

In Canada if you opposed gay marriage you would be a pariah and face expulsion from the NDP (the sister party to the Australian Labor Party) and also from the liberal party. The only party in Canada that would not expel an MP for being anti-gay would be the Conservative party and even they are backpedal ling like crazy on the social conservative stuff.

Why does Australia stand alone in terms of being so retrograde on gay rights compared to the other Anglo countries like Canada, the UK, New Zealand and these days most parts of the U.S. as well?

Do you understand that one's views on social issues do not dictate whether one is left or right wing?

As far as I know, the NDP is the only 'mainstream' socialist party in the Anglosphere to hold such intolerance to social conservatism. All other Labour parties, not just the ALP but also NZ and UK Labour have social conservatives in their ranks and one is just as entitled to be pro-life and anti-gay marriage as one is entitled to be pro-choice and pro-gay rights.
It's not the ALP that's the problem, it's the NDP! You guys are the ones with a bizarre and inequitable stance on these issues. But what more can you expect from a joke party which has no chance of winning a federal election.
The union movement in Australia remains steadfast!

I'm also interested to know what you mean by "civilised". Are you racist as well?

[Hifly]

Social issues are still a major source of conflict within the heavily Catholic influenced Right Faction of the ALP.
Being Pro-Life and Anti-Gay Marriage is occasionally a prerequisite for some ALP candidates in certain seats. Labor MPs have been deselected, or been seriously challenged before because they were too socially liberal.

The NSW Right has the strongest socially conservative streak of all factions.
Luke Foley is one of the few exceptions in the Left.

[Hifly]

If you find it incomprehensible that one can be a trade unionist and hold left wing views on economic issues while at the same time being a social traditionalist then you ought to go out a bit more.

Regarding mining communities, some of the strongest opposition to gay rights came from Labour MPs in South Wales valleys...

The French Socialist Party and all Scandinavian SDs are certainly not unanimously pro-Gay Marriage; most recently MPs from both the PS and Finnish Social Democrats spoke and voted against gay marriage in their respective parliaments. They were neither reprimanded nor expelled.

I will emphasise again that your own position and your party's own position is most obscure and unconventional among the global left, except for maybe Irish Labour which is equally hapless and with which you share some common ground re electoral issues. But the difference between your party, Irish Labour and the rest of the Anglosphere's centre-left is that your party is a joke party that has never won, nor ever will win a federal election. Have fun!!

[Hifly]

Morgan has 55.5-44.5 to the Coalition (up 1.5).

[Hifly]

Guardian/Lonergan:

Coalition 57% (+2)
Labor 43% (-2)

[Hifly]

Well this is weird. Also note that the Liberal candidate in Auburn is the Mayor of Auburn...

[Hifly]

Hopefully Penny Sharpe resigns her seat in the Upper House; Helen Westwood has already been defeated tonight.

Also, are those Green vs National counts in Ballina/Lismore actual figures or just speculation by the ABC computer? ie do we only actually know the figures from the Labor vs National count?

[Hifly]

Coalition gaining 2 seats in the Upper House on current figures, putting them on the cusp of a majority with 21 seats.

[Hifly]

Excellent news coming in from late counting- the Greens haven't won Lismore! National retain.

[Hifly]

Ben Raue and Kevin Bonham are both predicting narrow Liberal wins in Gosford, while The Entrance could go either way.