Gibson v Eldridge: Columbia County Precinct Map

[Torie]

Just for kicks, early this morning I prepared this map. A few precincts have been combined since 2008, so for those I took the combined totals (e.g. Hudson Wards 1, 2 and 4 were combined). It's interesting just how seamless the geography is, with the culturally left wing Berkshire's influence spilling across the Massachusetts state line into Columbia County. Rather entertaining is that Hudson-2 (where I live and the most Dem place in the County), is right next to Greenport-3, the most pub precinct in the county. Germantown, the more Dem splotch on the Hudson River near the Dutchess County line, I think can be explained perhaps by the Bard College influence - an artsy college just across the county line in Dutchess. Probably a fair number of Bard College staff live there. (The town of Tivoli right next to Bard College, is a student hangout (neat place indeed), and it's just about as Dem as the Dem wards of Hudson.)

The Pub zone is interesting as well, in that it seems to follow US Highway 9 from Hudson to the Rensselaer County line, the road I typically use to drive to Albany.

Without crunching the numbers, it seems the swing (yes, it's massive, about 20 points) from Romney to Gibson is pretty uniform across the county.  The same partisan patterns, relatively speaking, repeat themselves. It often surprises me just how non idiosyncratic voters tend to be. They swing, but tend to do so in relative unison, sort of like a line dance.

I made red the Pub color, and blue the Dem color, as is the convention everywhere now except on the Leip's site.

Oh, one oddity that I don't fully understand is that the turnout in Hudson Ward 4 is incredibly low, particularly in as much as about a fourth or so of the small total seen below (the folks living in the Crosswinds apartment complex mostly, but also half of the Fireman's home, and a few other houses) really should have voted in Ward 5, but didn't due to mapping and other errors of a rather mysterious provenance which may never be fully understood. That will change come the next election, thanks to a dynamic that started right here on the Leips site, on this very Board.

[muon2]

I think it would be interesting to compare the gubernatorial results in the same precincts. The 2012 pres total reflect people who didn't vote in 2014, but the gov race has the same voter set. In particular it should show where the ticket splitters live and which areas are most prone to party-line votes.

[Torie]

I think it would be interesting to compare the gubernatorial results in the same precincts. The 2012 pres total reflect people who didn't vote in 2014, but the gov race has the same voter set. In particular it should show where the ticket splitters live and which areas are most prone to party-line votes.

Except that the Green Party candidate is in the mix, although perhaps one could just add his votes to the Dem number.

[muon2]

I think it would be interesting to compare the gubernatorial results in the same precincts. The 2012 pres total reflect people who didn't vote in 2014, but the gov race has the same voter set. In particular it should show where the ticket splitters live and which areas are most prone to party-line votes.

Except that the Green Party candidate is in the mix, although perhaps one could just add his votes to the Dem number.

I would keep the Green in a separate column. In IL the Greens are often a none-of-the-above choice rather than a reflection of a split on the far left. By keeping them separate one can concentrate on what voters kept the same party on both races and who were Cuomo-Gibson voters, and if they are consistent with pro-incumbent voters.

[Torie]

Here are the figures with the Cuomo-Hawkins vote combined. In Hudson, it seemed every Dem I knew voted for Hawkins, because of a dislike for Cuomo. So that may be the best way to go here, given that dynamic. In any event, as a crude generalization, the result is as expected. Cultural liberals (Hillsdale 2 being a possible exception) and persons of color split the least, the white lower middle class and working class split the most. I will put up just the Cuomo-Astorino numbers next.

[muon2]

One quick observation is that there are more votes cast in NY-19 than for Gov. Normally the Gov race would attract more votes, but perhaps there are enough federal motor voter ballots to put the federal race ahead.

[Torie]

Cuomo is very disliked among culturally liberal Democrats in Columbia County. They had no problem voting for Eldridge of course, or some even for Gibson because he's not a particularly threatening or offensive figure from their point of view. You can see how, in such precincts (the epicenter of which is Ward 1 in Hudson), otherwise loyal Dems, who consider voting for a Pub outright sinful (we shall perhaps see just how much I can induce them to sin anyway ), abandoned Cuomo in droves.  

[Torie]

One quick observation is that there are more votes cast in NY-19 than for Gov. Normally the Gov race would attract more votes, but perhaps there are enough federal motor voter ballots to put the federal race ahead.

Part of the drop off in the Columbia County figures above for governor is that I ignored these guys running for governor. There were no third party candidates running for NY-19.

[muon2]

I see three distinct patterns in Hudson.

Wards 2 and 4 are solidly for Eldridge and Hawkins had little impact on Cuomo's total receiving under 10% in both VTDs. Straight D makes up about 3/4 of the vote. Gibson got double the votes of Astorino and those appear to come equally from Cuomo and Hawkins supporters plus the other third party voters. The hard R vote is about 17%, about 8% vote independents willing to cast against the status quo, and 8% are incumbent supporters.

Wards 1 and 3 are also solid D, but here the left split for Hawkins shows up with 22% of the vote. Gibson got about the same percentage here as in wards 2 and 4, and the hard R vote only grows to about 20%. The difference is that the anti-status quo group makes up almost a quarter of the voters. It's hard to tell but there probably still 5% or so (maybe as high as 8%) who just like incumbents due to name id.

The two VTDs of ward 5 show a marked difference in partisan voting. The hard R vote is up to 36% and barely behind the hard D vote at 43%. Hawkins doesn't do much better here than in wards 2 and 4 getting just 12%. This is the area where Cuomo racks up votes compared to Eldridge with a notable lack of of the left protest votes seen in wards 1 and 3. The 12% for Hawkins votes look mostly like Gibson votes here, plus there's another 8% of the usual pro-incumbent crowd.

[Torie]

The political difference in the two VTD's in Ward 5 I suspect is the real reason, or at least a major reason, maybe perceived only intuitively (something is rotten in Denmark, but I'm not sure what, but I know it's there), for so much tension on the weighted voting issue, although no one really fesses up to that, until I ask if that is the reason, and then some nod their head. If the Ward were more politically homogeneous, at the end of the day, the weighted voting system would make little real practical politically difference. But in reality, it ends up being another, and most creative, if inadvertent, form of gerrymandering.