Mr. Illini's Chicagoland Township Map Thread

[Green Line]

Great work!  I really enjoy these maps

[Mr. Illini]

Thanks, Green Line!

I've merged my city-by-ward and suburb-by-township maps for a full map of Cook County.

Such a beautifully Democratic county. Outliers are Barrington in the NW - a rural wealthy suburb. Lemont and Orland in the SW - rural and white working class.

Other than that a whole lot of Democratic red. Biggest change since the 80s is in the northern portions. Skokie, Evanston, New Trier, Northfield, Wheeling, Schaumburg, etc would have been mostly to solid GOP 30 years ago - now solid Dem.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Thanks, Green Line!

I've merged my city-by-ward and suburb-by-township maps for a full map of Cook County.

Such a beautifully Democratic county. Outliers are Barrington in the NW - a rural wealthy suburb. Lemont and Orland in the SW - rural and white working class.

Other than that a whole lot of Democratic red. Biggest change since the 80s is in the northern portions. Skokie, Evanston, New Trier, Northfield, Wheeling, Schaumburg, etc would have been mostly to solid GOP 30 years ago - now solid Dem.

I think Wheeling, Schaumburg, and the surrounding suburbs still lean slightly R; the reason they're solid D here is mostly favorite son effect.

BTW, where do you get your templates?  I'd like to try to work on a statewide map for Illinois.

[muon2]

Thanks, Green Line!

I've merged my city-by-ward and suburb-by-township maps for a full map of Cook County.

Such a beautifully Democratic county. Outliers are Barrington in the NW - a rural wealthy suburb. Lemont and Orland in the SW - rural and white working class.

Other than that a whole lot of Democratic red. Biggest change since the 80s is in the northern portions. Skokie, Evanston, New Trier, Northfield, Wheeling, Schaumburg, etc would have been mostly to solid GOP 30 years ago - now solid Dem.

Lemont and Orland are not rural in any sense. Orland has very little farmland and is as suburban as any township in DuPage (There is actually more ag land in Cook than in DuPage). Lemont has a bunch of Forest Preserve and golf course open space, but it's not rural.

[Green Line]

Thanks, Green Line!

I've merged my city-by-ward and suburb-by-township maps for a full map of Cook County.

Such a beautifully Democratic county. Outliers are Barrington in the NW - a rural wealthy suburb. Lemont and Orland in the SW - rural and white working class.

Other than that a whole lot of Democratic red. Biggest change since the 80s is in the northern portions. Skokie, Evanston, New Trier, Northfield, Wheeling, Schaumburg, etc would have been mostly to solid GOP 30 years ago - now solid Dem.

Beauty is subjective!  Also rural may qualify for Lemont but Orland is definitely not rural or working class in any sense.  It's a pretty typical Cook County suburb, just slightly less dense than Schaumburg and middle to upper middle class

It really is amazing how well Obama ran in places like Palatine and Palos in 2008

[Mr. Illini]

Lemont is CERTAINLY the least dense of the townships presented @muon

See here, although the map is old, it has not seen rapid population: http://130.166.124.2/chiatlas/chi149.GIF

Orland perhaps less so. Barrington actually moreso, which differentiates it from New Trier - both have incredible wealth but NT (60% Obama) is dense, Barrington (50% McCain) is less so

[Mr. Illini]

I think Wheeling, Schaumburg, and the surrounding suburbs still lean slightly R; the reason they're solid D here is mostly favorite son effect.

BTW, where do you get your templates?  I'd like to try to work on a statewide map for Illinois.

We'll see come 2016. I suspect that those areas will remain 50s for the Dems - they swung to Rauner, but many Lean D areas did

The city template I got from this site. The Cook suburban template I forgot where I obtained, but you may be able to grab mine and make a map of your own.

For this map specifically, I inserted the city map into the cook suburban map using photo editing software to make a full Cook County.

[Green Line]

Lemont is CERTAINLY the least dense of the townships presented @muon

See here, although the map is old, it has not seen rapid population: http://130.166.124.2/chiatlas/chi149.GIF

Orland perhaps less so. Barrington actually moreso, which differentiates it from New Trier - both have incredible wealth but NT (60% Obama) is dense, Barrington (50% McCain) is less so

Lemont has actually seen pretty decent growth.  7,348 people in 1990 (the date of your map) to 16,661 in 2014.  Most of Lemont township is just uninhabited forest preserves, but the actual town of Lemont where everyone lives is much smaller and denser, just 8 sq miles.  Not that anyone cares, but there is my geography lesson on southwest cook county!

[Mr. Illini]

Its population is only 21k. The only townships smaller are Barrington + others that are significantly smaller in land area and closer to the city.

[Green Line]

Its population is only 21k. The only townships smaller are Barrington + others that are significantly smaller in land area and closer to the city.

Ok, you called it rural, that's what I was responding to.

[Mr. Illini]

Its population is only 21k. The only townships smaller are Barrington + others that are significantly smaller in land area and closer to the city.

Ok, you called it rural, that's what I was responding to.

You tell me. That's the town of Lemont in red.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Cook_County_Illinois_incorporated_and_unincorporated_areas_Lemont_highlighted.svg/800px-Cook_County_Illinois_incorporated_and_unincorporated_areas_Lemont_highlighted.svg.png

[Green Line]

Its population is only 21k. The only townships smaller are Barrington + others that are significantly smaller in land area and closer to the city.

Ok, you called it rural, that's what I was responding to.

You tell me. That's the town of Lemont in red.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Cook_County_Illinois_incorporated_and_unincorporated_areas_Lemont_highlighted.svg/800px-Cook_County_Illinois_incorporated_and_unincorporated_areas_Lemont_highlighted.svg.png

Yes, im aware... That map shows nothing which proves your point. What am I supposed to be seeing

[Mr. Illini]

Its population is only 21k. The only townships smaller are Barrington + others that are significantly smaller in land area and closer to the city.

Ok, you called it rural, that's what I was responding to.

You tell me. That's the town of Lemont in red.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Cook_County_Illinois_incorporated_and_unincorporated_areas_Lemont_highlighted.svg/800px-Cook_County_Illinois_incorporated_and_unincorporated_areas_Lemont_highlighted.svg.png

Yes, im aware... That map shows nothing which proves your point. What am I supposed to be seeing

That area of Cook County is disproportionately sparsely populated. Perhaps it depends on what you consider "rural."

[muon2]

Its population is only 21k. The only townships smaller are Barrington + others that are significantly smaller in land area and closer to the city.

Ok, you called it rural, that's what I was responding to.

You tell me. That's the town of Lemont in red.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/Cook_County_Illinois_incorporated_and_unincorporated_areas_Lemont_highlighted.svg/800px-Cook_County_Illinois_incorporated_and_unincorporated_areas_Lemont_highlighted.svg.png

Yes, im aware... That map shows nothing which proves your point. What am I supposed to be seeing

That area of Cook County is disproportionately sparsely populated. Perhaps it depends on what you consider "rural."

The population is sparse because the township has a lot of dedicated open space. The Forest Preserve of Cook has a lot of land in Lemont and there are major golf courses including Cog Hill. The situation is similar to Winfield township in DuPage where half of the land is held by Fermilab or the DuPage Forest Preserve. Having land held for preserved open space does not make an area rural, especially when the remaining area is as built up as other neighboring suburban areas.

Unincorprated areas do not define rural either. Chicagoland has quite a few fully developed unincorporated areas. They were built at a time when no municipality could reach the developer's area. Subsequently the residents didn't want to annex. Just because residents don't want to annex into a neighboring municipality doesn't make them rural.

I get that different people may choose to define rural different ways. But let's not be arbitrary with those definitions. The Census Bureau defines urban vs rural areas throughout the country.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Based on the detailed definition in the Census link, there are maps delineating urban and rural. In Lemont township only some parcels on the eastern edge that are part of Saganashkee and Tampier Sloughs (Forest Preserve) are not considered urban areas. Palos township has a higher percentage of land in that category, but that doesn't make it rural either.

[Mr. Illini]

Did the same thing for 2012

[Mr. Illini]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

[Skye]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

Is that purple spot a tie?

[Mr. Illini]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

Is that purple spot a tie?

That it is; River Forest tied.

[Green Line]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

Is that purple spot a tie?

Quinn held up well with whites on the southwest side too. Worth township should have fell before most of those northern suburbs going off Obama's numbers

Although that probably says more about Obama than it does Quinn

[Mr. Illini]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

Is that purple spot a tie?

Quinn held up well with whites on the southwest side too. Worth township should have fell before most of those northern suburbs going off Obama's numbers

Although that probably says more about Obama than it does Quinn

My initial inkling is that that is a very historically Irish area, which would obviously aid Quinn.

Also worth noting that Rauner was a better fit for the northern suburbs.

[Green Line]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

Is that purple spot a tie?

Quinn held up well with whites on the southwest side too. Worth township should have fell before most of those northern suburbs going off Obama's numbers

Although that probably says more about Obama than it does Quinn

My initial inkling is that that is a very historically Irish area, which would obviously aid Quinn.

Also worth noting that Rauner was a better fit for the northern suburbs.

Yeah its socially conservative and heavily union, the worst fit for Rauner

[Mr. Illini]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

Is that purple spot a tie?

Quinn held up well with whites on the southwest side too. Worth township should have fell before most of those northern suburbs going off Obama's numbers

Although that probably says more about Obama than it does Quinn

My initial inkling is that that is a very historically Irish area, which would obviously aid Quinn.

Also worth noting that Rauner was a better fit for the northern suburbs.

Yeah its socially conservative and heavily union, the worst fit for Rauner

Also, just to tack in on: "Pat Quinn." Just sayin'.

[jimrtex]

I had posted this earlier, but it is relevant to Chicagoland.



The concept of Cumulative Vote Share is that as you add in precincts, one-by-one, you can calculate the share of the vote at that point in the count. This is quite familiar from election night. The order the votes are accumulated can be significant. In Pennsylvania, the votes from Philadelphia are reported first, and the initial vote share is extremely Democratic, the rest of the night the Republican share will climb.

Imagine that all precincts used paper ballots, and the election clerks in each precinct were equally efficient, such that the could count one ballot in some period of time. Let's assume 6 seconds per ballot, or 10 ballots per minute, then if there were 405 ballots cast, it would take 40m30s to count the ballots, at which time they would call the results in. A precinct with 505 ballots cast would take 10 minutes later to count.

At the county board of elections, the precinct results would be added in and the cumulative vote share reported. This is the blue line in the chart. So it might be reported that with 20% of the vote counted, Rauner has 38.7%.

Conspiracy theorists believe the fact that Republican CVS climbs as larger precincts are added in proves vote fraud since it is "common knowledge" that larger precincts are in Democratic-leaning cities. This is not true. For example, the largest Cook County precinct is in Hanover, which is as far as you can get from Chicago and not be Kane County.

They also overlook that turnout in most elections, and particularly non-presidential elections are in lower economic status areas, which typically are more Democratic. With fewer votes cast, they could be counted sooner, and added into the cumulative vote share. Places like Evanston and Oak Park have relatively high turnout, and are strongly Democratic, so the turnout differential is not strictly speaking partisan. But turnout in Cicero was horrible, and it was very Democratic.

But imagine that the county board of elections called the precincts. They might assume uniform turnout, and call the precincts in order of registered voters. With fewer voters, there will be less votes to count, so they will likely be done by the time the call is made. If precincts are ordered by number of registered voters, the red curve results.

It is quite level, with just a minute Republican trend in larger precincts. There may be a delay in adjusting precincts. If an area is declining in population, there may be resistance to closing familiar polling places. If an area is increasing in population, or at least remaining steady, they may not want to create additional polling places. Areas that have lower turnout, are also likely to have lower registration.



This chart shows the relationship between Rauner%, and Turnout%. The bubbles are colored based on Rauner%, and bubble size is based on registration.

It may be easier to see this chart directly in the spreadsheet.

Cook County Rauner 2014

There is a bit of optical illusion. The countywide turnout was 48.5%, and Proviso and Worth are just below that, with Thornton, Bloom, Bremen, and Niles a couple of points lower. There is a lot of overlap in the blue cluster around 60% Rauner (Ormond is hidden behind Palatine, for example), such that some of the lower turnout areas such as Schaumberg may have more visual weight, with their turnout perceived as being at the lower end of the circle, rather than as its center.

Overall, the more Republican townships have a bit higher turnout than most of the more Democratic townships, and there are some very low performing Democratic areas. I would interpret the turnout in Rich, Thornton, and Proviso as indicating that black turnout is less tied to economic status than that for white and Hispanic voters.

[muon2]

This chart shows the relationship between Rauner%, and Turnout%. The bubbles are colored based on Rauner%, and bubble size is based on registration.

It may be easier to see this chart directly in the spreadsheet.

Cook County Rauner 2014

There is a bit of optical illusion. The countywide turnout was 48.5%, and Proviso and Worth are just below that, with Thornton, Bloom, Bremen, and Niles a couple of points lower. There is a lot of overlap in the blue cluster around 60% Rauner (Ormond is hidden behind Palatine, for example), such that some of the lower turnout areas such as Schaumberg may have more visual weight, with their turnout perceived as being at the lower end of the circle, rather than as its center.

Overall, the more Republican townships have a bit higher turnout than most of the more Democratic townships, and there are some very low performing Democratic areas. I would interpret the turnout in Rich, Thornton, and Proviso as indicating that black turnout is less tied to economic status than that for white and Hispanic voters.

The turnout measure highlights the drop off among Hispanic voters. Cicero is almost 90% Latino, Berwyn is over half, and Leyden, Stickney and Hanover are about one third Latino. Those are the only townships with significant Latino population.

[Mr. Illini]

Is the high turnout Quinn township to the upper left of Riverside representing River Forest?