Mr. Illini's Chicagoland Township Map Thread

[jimrtex]

Is the high turnout Quinn township to the upper left of Riverside representing River Forest?

Yes. I used the Rauner percentage of the total vote, rather than the two-way vote, so it was not a tie, and the pink color covered 40% to 49.99...%. Rauner also had a plurality in Leyden.

Countywide, the Libertarian Chad Grim had 1.9% of the vote.

[RINO Tom]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

What is the ward that voted for Rauner?

[jimrtex]

This chart illustrates the effect of differential turnout.



Countywide turnout was 48.5%. The calculation assumes that if turnout in a township had been average, but the margin the same, what would have been the result.

For example, in Cicero it was Quinn 6540:Rauner 2154, a 4386 margin for Quinn. Rauner had 24.8% of the 2-way vote. There were 8664 Rauner+Quinn voters. Turnout was 30.8%.

If Cicero had had 48.5% turnout, then there would have been 13,608 Rauner+Quinn voters. Had the margin been the same (4386), then Rauner would have received 33.9% of the two-way vote.

That is, the effect of the low turnout in Cicero was the same as if Rauner had +9.1% more support than he actually did. Democrats not voting, is just as good for Republican outcomes, as Republicans voting.

A contrary example, in Oak Park it was Quinn 15062:Rauner 4905, a 10,157 margin for Quinn. Rauner had 24.6% of the 2-way vote, almost identical to Cicero. There were 19,967 Rauner+Quinn voters. Turnout was 58.3%, almost 10% higher than the countywide average.

Had Oak Park had 48.5% turnout, then there would 16,500 Rauner+Quinn voters. Had the margin been the same (10,157), then Rauner would have received 19.2% of the 2-way vote.

That is, the effect of the high turnout in Oak Park was the same as if Rauner had -5.3% less support than he actually did. Democrats voting, is just as bad for Republican outcomes, as Republicans not voting.

The largest effect is for areas that had relatively one-sided outcomes AND had relatively high or low turnouts. It didn't matter that River Forest had high turnout, since the result was tied.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

What is the ward that voted for Rauner?

42nd Ward, which covers Streeterville, River North, the Loop, and parts of the Near West Side.

And he just barely lost the 43rd Ward (which includes Lincoln Park), by a mere 0.7 percent. The 41st Ward, on the far northwest side, was the only other close one, with Quinn prevailing, 50% to 47%. Rauner's next-best ward was the 2nd, on the near west side, where he got 44%.


It drops off quickly from there

[RINO Tom]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

What is the ward that voted for Rauner?

42nd Ward, which covers Streeterville, River North, the Loop, and parts of the Near West Side.

And he just barely lost the 43rd Ward (which includes Lincoln Park), by a mere 0.7 percent. The 41st Ward, on the far northwest side, was the only other close one, with Quinn prevailing, 50% to 47%. Rauner's next-best ward was the 2nd, on the near west side, where he got 44%.


It drops off quickly from there

Ah, okay thanks; that's what I figured, because if I were to guess anywhere in Chicago voting for any Republican, it'd be that area.

[Mr. Illini]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

What is the ward that voted for Rauner?

42nd Ward, which covers Streeterville, River North, the Loop, and parts of the Near West Side.

And he just barely lost the 43rd Ward (which includes Lincoln Park), by a mere 0.7 percent. The 41st Ward, on the far northwest side, was the only other close one, with Quinn prevailing, 50% to 47%. Rauner's next-best ward was the 2nd, on the near west side, where he got 44%.


It drops off quickly from there

Ah, okay thanks; that's what I figured, because if I were to guess anywhere in Chicago voting for any Republican, it'd be that area.

The far northwest side wards are typically much more Republican than the River North ward, but this election also illustrated that they are much more inelastic than River North as well.

Obama's margins in the Rauner ward were considerably higher than the wards on the far northwest side, yet Quinn maintained Obama's margins on the far NW side (at least to more degree) while the River North/Gold Coast saw a massive swing from Obama to Rauner - so much that he was able to win it.

[muon2]

2014 Gubernatorial as well

Notice all of those north suburban townships that went for Obama twice went for Rauner. Also notice a ward in the city going for Rauner.

In the city, Quinn was largely able to hold Obama's numbers among African Americans. The Hispanic and white areas are where we saw sharp R swings.

What is the ward that voted for Rauner?

42nd Ward, which covers Streeterville, River North, the Loop, and parts of the Near West Side.

And he just barely lost the 43rd Ward (which includes Lincoln Park), by a mere 0.7 percent. The 41st Ward, on the far northwest side, was the only other close one, with Quinn prevailing, 50% to 47%. Rauner's next-best ward was the 2nd, on the near west side, where he got 44%.


It drops off quickly from there

Ah, okay thanks; that's what I figured, because if I were to guess anywhere in Chicago voting for any Republican, it'd be that area.

The far northwest side wards are typically much more Republican than the River North ward, but this election also illustrated that they are much more inelastic than River North as well.

Obama's margins in the Rauner ward were considerably higher than the wards on the far northwest side, yet Quinn maintained Obama's margins on the far NW side (at least to more degree) while the River North/Gold Coast saw a massive swing from Obama to Rauner - so much that he was able to win it.

The union vote is big in the NW wards. Some of the inelasticity was probably Rauner's unpopularity with union voters.

[Green Line]

Can you make the same maps with Kirk numbers from 2010?  It would be interesting to compare the Kirk and Rauner vote.  The margins in Cook County were almost the same but I wonder how different their coalitions were.

Edit: I glanced at the numbers real quick and it looks like Kirk won Worth Township in 2010 despite getting 2% lower than Rauner

[Mr. Illini]

More free time as we march into the holiday week this week.

Dick Durbin's re-election in Cook County.

Kirk's 2010 race will be next.

Something I thought of today: can't wait to make this for Clinton vs. Sanders in March, assuming Bernie is still in it. Will be fascinating.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Do you know where I could get a statewide map?

[Mr. Illini]

Do you know where I could get a statewide map?

Of what exactly - townships, precincts, counties, localities, etc?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Do you know where I could get a statewide map?

Of what exactly - townships, precincts, counties, localities, etc?

Townships and/or precincts.

[Mr. Illini]

Do you know where I could get a statewide map?

Of what exactly - townships, precincts, counties, localities, etc?

Townships and/or precincts.

Unfortunately not a statewide version. Additionally, that data is very difficult to put together because it is not handled centrally and many counties do not publish it. It's just by the grace of God that last year I was able to compile a map of Chicagoland by township in the 2014 election, and it took a lot of spreadsheet work.

[Mr. Illini]

Found this this afternoon. No credit to me, all to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Really cool though.

Extended Chicagoland (Cook, collars+, NWI, Kenosha) in the 2008 Presidential election. All by precinct.

[ElectionsGuy]

For the Democratic primary in Cook, I'm expecting Clinton to win by a lot (possibly up to 20 points). Still, the well off liberal white areas will vote for Bernie, like Evanston. The only places I see Bernie having a chance in area University hubs like Champaign-Urbana and (maybe) northwest Illinois (I'm guessing Bernie will do well in Eastern Iowa)

[Mr. Illini]

For the Democratic primary in Cook, I'm expecting Clinton to win by a lot (possibly up to 20 points). Still, the well off liberal white areas will vote for Bernie, like Evanston. The only places I see Bernie having a chance in area University hubs like Champaign-Urbana and (maybe) northwest Illinois (I'm guessing Bernie will do well in Eastern Iowa)

I anticipate moderate Clinton margins in NW and SW Cook (Palatine, Barrington, Schaumburg, etc; Orland, Lemont, etc), Sanders victories in super white liberal areas (Evanston, Skokie, Park Ridge, Oak Park, LaGrange, Chicago Northside, etc), large Clinton margins in Hispanic and black areas (Cicero, Berwyn, Chicago Southside, Chicago Westside, Rich, Bloom, etc).

Probably something like 60-30 Clinton.

[muon2]

Do you know where I could get a statewide map?

Of what exactly - townships, precincts, counties, localities, etc?

Townships and/or precincts.

The IL State Board of Elections collects pdfs of precinct maps from each county. Usually it's by township. Some cities have independent election commissions so they are separate from the county. The collection can be found at

http://precinctmaps.elections.il.gov/

[jimrtex]

Do you know where I could get a statewide map?

Of what exactly - townships, precincts, counties, localities, etc?

Townships and/or precincts.

The IL State Board of Elections collects pdfs of precinct maps from each county. Usually it's by township. Some cities have independent election commissions so they are separate from the county. The collection can be found at

http://precinctmaps.elections.il.gov/

How close would the 2010 census VTD's be?

[muon2]

Do you know where I could get a statewide map?

Of what exactly - townships, precincts, counties, localities, etc?

Townships and/or precincts.

The IL State Board of Elections collects pdfs of precinct maps from each county. Usually it's by township. Some cities have independent election commissions so they are separate from the county. The collection can be found at

http://precinctmaps.elections.il.gov/

How close would the 2010 census VTD's be?

The law requiring election authorities to report their precinct boundaries went into effect early this year. The goal is to have the precinct maps in advance of each election, but there is no requirement to report historical boundaries. Most counties will have submitted boundaries used for the 2014 election, and most of those would have last been adjusted in 2011 after the 2010 remap.  Some made no changes at all and they will match precincts from the 2000's including those on DRA. A few, including DuPage, made major changes this year in advance of the 2016 elections, so they will be no help for 2012 or 2014.

[jimrtex]

Do you know where I could get a statewide map?

Of what exactly - townships, precincts, counties, localities, etc?

Townships and/or precincts.

The IL State Board of Elections collects pdfs of precinct maps from each county. Usually it's by township. Some cities have independent election commissions so they are separate from the county. The collection can be found at

http://precinctmaps.elections.il.gov/

How close would the 2010 census VTD's be?

The law requiring election authorities to report their precinct boundaries went into effect early this year. The goal is to have the precinct maps in advance of each election, but there is no requirement to report historical boundaries. Most counties will have submitted boundaries used for the 2014 election, and most of those would have last been adjusted in 2011 after the 2010 remap.  Some made no changes at all and they will match precincts from the 2000's including those on DRA. A few, including DuPage, made major changes this year in advance of the 2016 elections, so they will be no help for 2012 or 2014.

Are those DuPage changes in selected townships?

In Massachusetts, the towns and cities are required to submit shapefiles to the SOS. Of the towns that I found precinct maps for, they were produced by the SOS. I suspect that in Massachusetts the precinct maps including shapefiles could be obtained from the SOS.

Looking at a sample of maps in Illinois shows that they were produced by the respective BOE. Adams looks like they were produced on top of census maps. Clark County used their GIS system. Woodford might not have just used a state highway map - unless precincts are coincident with townships.

[freepcrusher]

And of course, I couldn't not do an annotated version.

When you say "Heavily Christian", do you mean Evangelicals or conservative mainline Protestants or just churchy people in general?

There's a sizeable Evangelical population (one of the largest megachurches in the USA is in South Barrington). It reminds me a bit of the rich populations of Orange County, whereas the North Shore is more like the rich populations of suburban New York or Boston.

I really want to do the same map but for the 2012 Presidential because that map would really show how different wealthy people in the Barrington area are from wealthy people along the North Shore.

yep, Barrington was part of Phil Crane's district years ago, who was sort of a Ted Cruz type.

[freepcrusher]

btw, how did Rauner win Aurora?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

btw, how did Rauner win Aurora?

He made serious inroads with Hispanics.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Do you know where I could get a statewide map?

Of what exactly - townships, precincts, counties, localities, etc?

Townships and/or precincts.

The IL State Board of Elections collects pdfs of precinct maps from each county. Usually it's by township. Some cities have independent election commissions so they are separate from the county. The collection can be found at

http://precinctmaps.elections.il.gov/

Do you know where I could find statewide maps?

[Green Line]

btw, how did Rauner win Aurora?

He made serious inroads with Hispanics.

Rauner did pretty well with Hispanics for a Republican, but it was mostly due to the white areas of Aurora having way higher turnout.