Best QB in NFL today (career and current factors considered)
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  Best QB in NFL today (career and current factors considered)
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Question: Taking into account career achievements AND current performance,  who is the best quarterback in the NFL today?
#1
Carson Palmer (AZ)
 
#2
Matt Ryan (ATL)
 
#3
Joe Flacco (BAL)
 
#4
Kyle Orton (BUF)
 
#5
Cam Newton (CAR)
 
#6
Jay Cutler (CHI)
 
#7
Andy Dalton (CIN)
 
#8
Johnny Manziel (CLE)
 
#9
Tony Romo (DAL)
 
#10
Peyton Manning (DEN)
 
#11
Matthew Stafford (DET)
 
#12
Aaron Rodgers (GRB)
 
#13
Case Keenum (HOU)
 
#14
Andrew Luck (IND)
 
#15
Blake Bortles (JAX)
 
#16
Alex Smith (KNC)
 
#17
Ryan Tannehill (MIA)
 
#18
Teddy Bridgewater (MIN)
 
#19
Tom Brady (NWE)
 
#20
Drew Brees (NOLA)
 
#21
Eli Manning (NYG)
 
#22
Geno Smith (NYJ)
 
#23
Derek Carr (OAK)
 
#24
Mark Sanchez (PHI)
 
#25
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
 
#26
Phillip Rivers (SND)
 
#27
Colin Kaepernick (SNF)
 
#28
Russell Wilson (SEA)
 
#29
Shaun Hill (STL)
 
#30
Josh McCown (TBY)
 
#31
Charlie Whitehurst (TEN)
 
#32
Colt McCoy (WASH)
 
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Total Voters: 27

Author Topic: Best QB in NFL today (career and current factors considered)  (Read 2002 times)
JRP1994
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« on: December 24, 2014, 11:04:11 AM »

Vote!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2014, 12:13:41 PM »

Rodgers edges out Brees though I might like Brees slightly more.

Chad Henne is better than like half these names. Why can't the NFL find any good QBs anymore.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2014, 12:14:47 PM »

It's still Peyton Manning, then Luck, Cam, and Russell Wilson battling for 2nd/Heir Ascendent.

Also Nick Foles, should be in Mark Sanchez's spot.
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2014, 01:34:25 PM »

Ben. No one could withstand the punishment he's taken and go to three Super Bowls, winning two.
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Paul Kemp
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« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2014, 01:48:12 PM »

It's still Peyton Manning, then Luck, Cam, and Russell Wilson battling for 2nd/Heir Ascendent.

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bedstuy
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« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2014, 02:22:38 PM »

Aaron Rodgers.  He has all the tools.  Great arm, accurate, good at moving in the pocket, smart, can scramble for a third down, doesn't turn the ball over, decent size, nobody else has that combination. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2014, 04:55:50 PM »

Rodgers, Cowboys have the better chance of winning Superbowl, with Murray as RB.
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« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2014, 08:45:34 PM »

I'm a Peyton loyalist.
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2014, 09:14:35 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2014, 09:17:14 PM by Sawx, King in the North »

Baedy.
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20RP12
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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2014, 11:20:01 PM »

Peyton Manning is the correct answer, but I voted for Johnny Manziel.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2014, 11:43:28 PM »

Aaron Rodgers by a mile.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #11 on: December 25, 2014, 12:54:57 PM »

1. Rodgers
1A. Wilson

2. Brady
 
3. Manning / Luck

4. Luck / Manning

5. Brees or Stafford
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rpryor03
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« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2014, 01:03:49 PM »

Ben. No one could withstand the punishment he's taken and go to three Super Bowls, winning two.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #13 on: December 25, 2014, 04:17:36 PM »

Manning is, by a wide margin the best regular-season QB of all time.  it remains to be seen if his decline over the past two months is the start of his demise or a mere blip.  remember, Brady was significantly worse last year than he had been for many years, leading many to posit that, given his age, it was more than likely a sign that he had entered terminal decline.  that thesis is now dead, as he has rebounded completely at age 37.

despite that, I do think Manning is very likely to be in decline.  Brady's lone severe injury was a blown ACL.  there's no reason to believe that continues to haunt him in the least.  Manning's neck injury, which required three surgeries, is much scarier.  he's stated that he has it evaluated every offseason, and would retire without hesitation should it force him to go under the knife again.

Manning's late surge as a Bronco is the most impressive an athletic feat I've witness.  looking back: 2010 was his worst season since his rookie season of 1998.  he then had multiple surgeries on his neck and missed all of 2011 - and as I said, those are not far more dangerous than the ligament replacement of surgeries that have been all but perfected by the top orthopedists.  when Manning made clear his desire to return in 2012 an hit the free agent market, I took the position that whoever signed him to a massive contract was committing a colossal error. as stated earlier, his 2010 season was not elite but only above average, and given his age, it more than likely indicated he was entering the decline phase of his career.  even ignoring the major injury risk and the missed 2011, his 2010 performance and advancing age meant there was every chance that a fully healthy Manning would be but a league-average QB.

I was dead wrong.  Manning's 2012-2014 is right up there with the great QB performances of all time.  his 2013 season was one of the top five QB-seasons of all time (along with Marino 1983, Manning 2004, Brady 2007, and Rodgers 2011).

what makes it all the more amazing is that Manning's physical skill has markedly diminished.  it's obvious to the naked eye that his arm strength is not only weaker than it was a decade ago, but it's actually strikingly poor.  if he were being scouted at the NFL combine scouts would write without hyperbole that he has less ability to put velocity on a throw than any QB they'd ever seen.  he can still, in a sense, throw the ball far, but for the most part he's doing it with accuracy and an unparalleled, encyclopedic football mind - the defense may as well tell him what they're doing before the snap.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #14 on: December 25, 2014, 04:31:40 PM »

Manning is, by a wide margin the best regular-season QB of all time.  it remains to be seen if his decline over the past two months is the start of his demise or a mere blip.  remember, Brady was significantly worse last year than he had been for many years, leading many to posit that, given his age, it was more than likely a sign that he had entered terminal decline.  that thesis is now dead, as he has rebounded completely at age 37.

despite that, I do think Manning is very likely to be in decline.  Brady's lone severe injury was a blown ACL.  there's no reason to believe that continues to haunt him in the least.  Manning's neck injury, which required three surgeries, is much scarier.  he's stated that he has it evaluated every offseason, and would retire without hesitation should it force him to go under the knife again.

Manning's late surge as a Bronco is the most impressive an athletic feat I've witness.  looking back: 2010 was his worst season since his rookie season of 1998.  he then had multiple surgeries on his neck and missed all of 2011 - and as I said, those are not far more dangerous than the ligament replacement of surgeries that have been all but perfected by the top orthopedists.  when Manning made clear his desire to return in 2012 an hit the free agent market, I took the position that whoever signed him to a massive contract was committing a colossal error. as stated earlier, his 2010 season was not elite but only above average, and given his age, it more than likely indicated he was entering the decline phase of his career.  even ignoring the major injury risk and the missed 2011, his 2010 performance and advancing age meant there was every chance that a fully healthy Manning would be but a league-average QB.

I was dead wrong.  Manning's 2012-2014 is right up there with the great QB performances of all time.  his 2013 season was one of the top five QB-seasons of all time (along with Marino 1983, Manning 2004, Brady 2007, and Rodgers 2011).

what makes it all the more amazing is that Manning's physical skill has markedly diminished.  it's obvious to the naked eye that his arm strength is not only weaker than it was a decade ago, but it's actually strikingly poor.  if he were being scouted at the NFL combine scouts would write without hyperbole that he has less ability to put velocity on a throw than any QB they'd ever seen.  he can still, in a sense, throw the ball far, but for the most part he's doing it with accuracy and an unparalleled, encyclopedic football mind - the defense may as well tell him what they're doing before the snap.

Which means that a League-average season for Peyton Manning in 2015 (if he doesn't retire would be much more relevant in terms of a "best today" setting, than one by Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, or Ryan Tannehill, becuase of how much he's been through, injury-wise.
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Paul Kemp
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« Reply #15 on: December 25, 2014, 04:47:51 PM »

Manning is, by a wide margin the best regular-season QB of all time.  it remains to be seen if his decline over the past two months is the start of his demise or a mere blip.  remember, Brady was significantly worse last year than he had been for many years, leading many to posit that, given his age, it was more than likely a sign that he had entered terminal decline.  that thesis is now dead, as he has rebounded completely at age 37.

despite that, I do think Manning is very likely to be in decline.  Brady's lone severe injury was a blown ACL.  there's no reason to believe that continues to haunt him in the least.  Manning's neck injury, which required three surgeries, is much scarier.  he's stated that he has it evaluated every offseason, and would retire without hesitation should it force him to go under the knife again.

Manning's late surge as a Bronco is the most impressive an athletic feat I've witness.  looking back: 2010 was his worst season since his rookie season of 1998.  he then had multiple surgeries on his neck and missed all of 2011 - and as I said, those are not far more dangerous than the ligament replacement of surgeries that have been all but perfected by the top orthopedists.  when Manning made clear his desire to return in 2012 an hit the free agent market, I took the position that whoever signed him to a massive contract was committing a colossal error. as stated earlier, his 2010 season was not elite but only above average, and given his age, it more than likely indicated he was entering the decline phase of his career.  even ignoring the major injury risk and the missed 2011, his 2010 performance and advancing age meant there was every chance that a fully healthy Manning would be but a league-average QB.

I was dead wrong.  Manning's 2012-2014 is right up there with the great QB performances of all time.  his 2013 season was one of the top five QB-seasons of all time (along with Marino 1983, Manning 2004, Brady 2007, and Rodgers 2011).

what makes it all the more amazing is that Manning's physical skill has markedly diminished.  it's obvious to the naked eye that his arm strength is not only weaker than it was a decade ago, but it's actually strikingly poor.  if he were being scouted at the NFL combine scouts would write without hyperbole that he has less ability to put velocity on a throw than any QB they'd ever seen.  he can still, in a sense, throw the ball far, but for the most part he's doing it with accuracy and an unparalleled, encyclopedic football mind - the defense may as well tell him what they're doing before the snap.

A rare good post about a sports related topic on the Atlas Forum. Good job, Tweed. I enjoyed that read.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #16 on: December 25, 2014, 05:11:35 PM »

thanks.  though I made a few typos that are pissing me off.  Marino's 1984, for one, and the garble of words over where I was explaining the severity and unpredictability of a neck injury as compared to ligament replacement surgeries.


it also should be noted that I'm on an upper right now, that's chemically similar to what they give out as adhd medication.  one effect seems to be, I'm writing volumes about trivial topics without realizing... you wouldn't believe the nonsense I churned out last night about Cameron Diaz, of all things.  I guess this is what normal people call an "attention span", minus the ability to freely choose what I'd like to pay attention to.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #17 on: December 25, 2014, 05:25:58 PM »

     I voted Manning based on the stipulation of career achievements, though Rodgers is the better player at the moment.

Chad Henne is better than like half these names. Why can't the NFL find any good QBs anymore.

     There are a surprising number of teams that are desperate for a QB this year. Texans, Titans, Bills, Cardinals, Browns, Vikings, Jaguars, Rams, Redskins, Jets, Eagles, and Buccaneers have all made midseason switches due to injury and poor play. That's literally a third of the league with turnover at the most important position on the field.
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Smash255
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« Reply #18 on: December 25, 2014, 05:27:25 PM »

My team's QB's big brother.  He might not be what he once was (though we have thought this a couple timespreviously only for him to bounce back), but he is still the best.  Rodgers is a close second followed by Brady.  Luck and Wilson round out the top 5.

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #19 on: December 25, 2014, 09:16:21 PM »

Why can't the NFL find any good QBs anymore.

this is a problem of perception.  there are a number of them.

part of the problem is how heavily people factor in Super Bowl victories when assessing a quarterback.  baseball fans have generally accepted Billy Beane's maxim of "the playoffs are a crapshoot", and that we are best off using regular season data to evaluate players.  the best, and devastatingly simple, reason to focus on regular season data is because there is so much more of it.  will we learn more about Tony Romo by studying his 122 regular season starts or his four postseason starts?

this concept is so simple that any literate teenager could understand it within minutes, and most baseball fans you'll find online accept it as a matter of course.  not so with football dialog, which is stuck in the Dark Ages.  a well argued, statement backed by real data, that argues Philip Rivers has been a better player than Eli Manning, will get you personally berated.  someone will grunt out "2 Super Bowls!" and the mob will consider the matter settled.

the sad fact is, that any productive, veteran QB who has not yet won a championship is not only un- or under-appreciated, but often viciously attacked. Rivers, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan fit the bill, Romo taking the worst of it due to the prominence of the Cowboys. 

capable players exist even at the level below the Romos and Ryans.  here you find your league-average quarterbacks.  they also take a ton of heat.  Andy Dalton's in that boat right now, and those 3 playoff losses in 3 years fan the flames of his torment. Cam Newton is another, he gets hit with terms like "not growing up" and "not a team leader".  Flacco would fit squarely in this group, but for his great play in 3 games in Jan/Feb '13.  perfect timing: crowned w/ a ring and a massive contract.  Cutler, too, is better than he's made out to be.  his body language is terrible, and doesn't give off that scrappy, love for the sport, addicted-to-competition vibe that the media eats up. though in his case, it's at least partially his fault - I don't doubt that he's difficult to work with on a daily basis. 

being a Jet fan has made me sensitive to the criticism of the average QB.  since Joe Namath - and though I adore him, he is perhaps the single most overrated QB in NFL history - the Jets have very rarely enjoyed anything approaching average quarterback play.  a fun thing to do is to go to a Jets message board and ask them to name the five best QBs in Jets history.  it's difficult for people to think of anyone other than Namath without racking their brain. you really begin to understand the futility when you realize that  it is more or less impossible for a reasonable man not to put Mark Sanchez into that fifth slot.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #20 on: December 25, 2014, 09:56:27 PM »

Cam Newton is the only one of those I'd consider good. Stafford is someone you didn't mention that I like a lot and would obviously class above Rivers, etc. even if he never wins. Part of the problem is that I watch very little NFL I guess (12 games this year maybe?) so a lot of my perception dates back to college days for Flacco and Dalton and even Ryan while I really don't consider Rivers very good. Romo has surprised me this year though.

Regardless, I was going more for the team names that IDS Judicial Overlord mentioned.

I mean we got guys like Logan Thomas in competitions to start this week. Quite insane after seeing him play in the ACC (I know he lost the job, but still, just the talk). It amazes me that Zac Mettenberger is more than a practice squad player. Certainly, he has a stronger arm than some of those SEC rivals from last year, but that's all the more reason he should be on a practice squad - higher ceiling, lower floor.

Hopefully guys like Marriota, Mannion, Prescott, Connor Cook, Bryce Petty, John Robertson, and Vernon Adams can break into the league in the next couple years. There's a lot of potential waiting in the wings. Winston in all likelihood too.

Then you got gus like Hundley, Hogan, Kenny Hill, Golson, Bryan Bennett who could make the next level too (though admittedly, I have less faith in those but Hundley wouldn't shock me).

Recent years have had guys like  gabbert and tannehill and bortles and ej manuel and ponder get selected as franchise QBs which is just nonsense. I have some faith in Bridgewater, but some of these picks seem downright desparate. (Not picking on florida haha)

Funny thing is there's some decent backups in the league especially Garoppolo who could impress given an opportunity  (and not just like Matt Cassell). I don't even mind Matt Flynn and certainly not Ryan Mallett. And then there's a pretty proven guy like Hoyer on the market. I'm actually in total shock that Jeff Mathews can't crack the Cardinals top 2 with palmer and Stanton out.
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« Reply #21 on: December 25, 2014, 10:18:41 PM »

Chad Henne is better than like half these names. Why can't the NFL find any good QBs anymore.

     There are a surprising number of teams that are desperate for a QB this year. Texans, Titans, Bills, Cardinals, Browns, Vikings, Jaguars, Rams, Redskins, Jets, Eagles, and Buccaneers have all made midseason switches due to injury and poor play. That's literally a third of the league with turnover at the most important position on the field.

all that is is a list of teams that have started more than one QB this season.  for it to mean anything at all you'd have to compare the # of multiple-QB teams to other years.

and even then, what's the point?  not all of those teams are bad, one even has 11 wins, another has 9, a few more with 8, another with 7.  nor have all of those teams received poor play from their QB position in the aggregate.  the Texans QBs have posted a total of 21 td/12 int, and an 85 rating; the Cardinals, 19/9 and an 83; the Bills, 22/13 and an 85; the Eagles, 25/20 and 84, with 7.3 y/a...  none of those teams have been ruined by the play of their QBs.

--

looking to recent history: 12 of the past 15 Super Bowls have featured at least one team that started multiple players at QB during the regular season, though only 9 featured a team that started multiple QBs due to "poor performance or injury".  the other three cases involve a team opting not to play its starter in a meaningless Week 17 game.

digging deeper, we find that 5 of the past 15 Super Bowl champs started multiple QBs during the regular season "due to poor performance or injury":

-the 2000 Ravens: Trent Dilfer replaced Tony Banks;
-the 2001 Patriots: Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe;
-the 2002 Buccaneers: Brad Johnson missed three games due to injury; Shaun King (one start) and Rob Johnson (two starts);
-the 2005 Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger missed four games due to injury; Tommy Maddox (2 starts) and Charlie Batch (2 starts)
-the 2010 Packers: Aaron Rodgers missed one game due to injury; Matt Flynn (1 start)
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« Reply #22 on: December 26, 2014, 01:36:23 AM »

I do think it has gotten harder to evaluate college QB prospects.  So many of the good college teams have moved away from the traditional pro-style offense or just have a running QB.  With a spread offense, the QB's job is just different and often you're not asked to make the same types of throws that are necessary in the NFL.  Someone like Robert Griffin was able to succeed without being forced to throw into tight windows or move through multiple progressions.  You see with these college spread offense QBs, even the talented guys, that they often can't adjust to making pinpoint throws outside the numbers.

And, there's a long tradition of these guys failing in the NFL, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Tim Tebow, Kevin Kolb, etc.  The guys that have succeeded from that style of offense, like Alex Smith, seem to have difficulty playing at the level of elite QBs who learned a pro-style offense.

The truth is that NFL teams go through a process of forgetting what QBs have succeeded in the NFL.  We have the brief blips where Michael Vick or RGIII supposedly "revolutionize" the QB position and then flame out.  Running is a great strategy in college because someone like Cam Newton was that much more exceptional playing in the diluted talent pool of college football.  However, in the NFL, those running QBs can't rip off big gains and they end up getting hurt to the point where they derail a few seasons.  But, the bigger issue is that running QBs and system guys never develop the elite throwing skills because they have a crutch.  They don't need to look at their third progression, they can just run the ball or throw to a wide open receiver in the spread offense. 

So, that's the issue I think, the elite colleges have moved away from the pro-style offense, thus making the QB position harder to scout.
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muon2
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« Reply #23 on: December 26, 2014, 01:07:06 PM »

I do think it has gotten harder to evaluate college QB prospects.  So many of the good college teams have moved away from the traditional pro-style offense or just have a running QB.  With a spread offense, the QB's job is just different and often you're not asked to make the same types of throws that are necessary in the NFL.  Someone like Robert Griffin was able to succeed without being forced to throw into tight windows or move through multiple progressions.  You see with these college spread offense QBs, even the talented guys, that they often can't adjust to making pinpoint throws outside the numbers.

And, there's a long tradition of these guys failing in the NFL, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Tim Tebow, Kevin Kolb, etc.  The guys that have succeeded from that style of offense, like Alex Smith, seem to have difficulty playing at the level of elite QBs who learned a pro-style offense.

The truth is that NFL teams go through a process of forgetting what QBs have succeeded in the NFL.  We have the brief blips where Michael Vick or RGIII supposedly "revolutionize" the QB position and then flame out.  Running is a great strategy in college because someone like Cam Newton was that much more exceptional playing in the diluted talent pool of college football.  However, in the NFL, those running QBs can't rip off big gains and they end up getting hurt to the point where they derail a few seasons.  But, the bigger issue is that running QBs and system guys never develop the elite throwing skills because they have a crutch.  They don't need to look at their third progression, they can just run the ball or throw to a wide open receiver in the spread offense. 

So, that's the issue I think, the elite colleges have moved away from the pro-style offense, thus making the QB position harder to scout.

This pretty much sums up a player like Jordan Lynch. In 2013 he throws for almost 3000 yards and runs for almost 2000 yards and on the way sets 4 NCAA quarterback records (all for rushing) and was 3rd in the Heisman voting after being 7th for the Heisman in 2012.

But his style doesn't fit the NFL and everyone knows it. He goes undrafted then tries out as a running back for the Bears. Even with a position switch, he can't make the team. Great athlete, but the NFL skill requirements are so narrow and high that there's no place for him at the pro level in his sport.
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« Reply #24 on: December 26, 2014, 02:38:27 PM »

Chad Henne is better than like half these names. Why can't the NFL find any good QBs anymore.

     There are a surprising number of teams that are desperate for a QB this year. Texans, Titans, Bills, Cardinals, Browns, Vikings, Jaguars, Rams, Redskins, Jets, Eagles, and Buccaneers have all made midseason switches due to injury and poor play. That's literally a third of the league with turnover at the most important position on the field.

all that is is a list of teams that have started more than one QB this season.  for it to mean anything at all you'd have to compare the # of multiple-QB teams to other years.

and even then, what's the point?  not all of those teams are bad, one even has 11 wins, another has 9, a few more with 8, another with 7.  nor have all of those teams received poor play from their QB position in the aggregate.  the Texans QBs have posted a total of 21 td/12 int, and an 85 rating; the Cardinals, 19/9 and an 83; the Bills, 22/13 and an 85; the Eagles, 25/20 and 84, with 7.3 y/a...  none of those teams have been ruined by the play of their QBs.

--

looking to recent history: 12 of the past 15 Super Bowls have featured at least one team that started multiple players at QB during the regular season, though only 9 featured a team that started multiple QBs due to "poor performance or injury".  the other three cases involve a team opting not to play its starter in a meaningless Week 17 game.

digging deeper, we find that 5 of the past 15 Super Bowl champs started multiple QBs during the regular season "due to poor performance or injury":

-the 2000 Ravens: Trent Dilfer replaced Tony Banks;
-the 2001 Patriots: Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe;
-the 2002 Buccaneers: Brad Johnson missed three games due to injury; Shaun King (one start) and Rob Johnson (two starts);
-the 2005 Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger missed four games due to injury; Tommy Maddox (2 starts) and Charlie Batch (2 starts)
-the 2010 Packers: Aaron Rodgers missed one game due to injury; Matt Flynn (1 start)

     I suppose the point I was getting at is that a lot of teams are struggling to make ends meet. The Cardinals would probably be getting more production out of Carson Palmer than they are out of Ryan Lindley. That Super Bowl stat is interesting, though.

     Going back to what you said in an earlier post, I have been thinking for a while that people overvalue the Super Bowl by a lot. The very idea that Russell Wilson is close to Rodgers is absurd, but people say it because Wilson just won the Super Bowl. The year before that, people were talking about how amazing Flacco was, when he had previously been described as a Trent Dilfer/Alex Smith-style game manager. I've seen people refer to Eli Manning as elite, which I can only surmise is due to him having won two Super Bowls. He is a perennial pick machine, though he has been improving in that regard. Sorry, Grumps, but the same applies to Ben Roethlisberger. In his two SB champion seasons, he threw for 17 TDs each. I guess Alex Smith is just two Super Bowls away from being a top QB, then.

      A big part of this problem is that it misses the roles of the rest of the team. A good running game is important, despite the erosion of rushing that the game has been experiencing. #1 defenses have a much better success rate in the big dance than #1 offenses do. The maxim is that "defense wins championships", and it is more or less true. You also really need a competent offense to make the playoffs, because having a bottom-tier offense tends to wear down the defense to the point that they start giving up big plays. It's not baseball where you just need to get three outs and you're good until the next inning.

     Overall, I'd say the idea about the playoffs being a crapshoot is easily most valid in football. One bad game, or drive or play, ends things very quickly. Harbaugh/Roman have been heavily criticized for repeatedly trying to throw the ball into the endzone at the end of the Super Bowl with the Ravens, when Frank Gore had just taken off on a long run down to their 7-yard line. Maybe we would have lost anyway, but Baseball averages that sort of stuff out with best-of-five and best-of-seven series.

     Also, if playoffs really were a crapshoot, I think the A's would succeed occasionally rather than fail consistently. Seven straight elimination game losses!
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