Best QB in NFL today (career and current factors considered)

[© tweed]

Manning is, by a wide margin the best regular-season QB of all time.  it remains to be seen if his decline over the past two months is the start of his demise or a mere blip.  remember, Brady was significantly worse last year than he had been for many years, leading many to posit that, given his age, it was more than likely a sign that he had entered terminal decline.  that thesis is now dead, as he has rebounded completely at age 37.

despite that, I do think Manning is very likely to be in decline.  Brady's lone severe injury was a blown ACL.  there's no reason to believe that continues to haunt him in the least.  Manning's neck injury, which required three surgeries, is much scarier.  he's stated that he has it evaluated every offseason, and would retire without hesitation should it force him to go under the knife again.

Manning's late surge as a Bronco is the most impressive an athletic feat I've witness.  looking back: 2010 was his worst season since his rookie season of 1998.  he then had multiple surgeries on his neck and missed all of 2011 - and as I said, those are not far more dangerous than the ligament replacement of surgeries that have been all but perfected by the top orthopedists.  when Manning made clear his desire to return in 2012 an hit the free agent market, I took the position that whoever signed him to a massive contract was committing a colossal error. as stated earlier, his 2010 season was not elite but only above average, and given his age, it more than likely indicated he was entering the decline phase of his career.  even ignoring the major injury risk and the missed 2011, his 2010 performance and advancing age meant there was every chance that a fully healthy Manning would be but a league-average QB.

I was dead wrong.  Manning's 2012-2014 is right up there with the great QB performances of all time.  his 2013 season was one of the top five QB-seasons of all time (along with Marino 1983, Manning 2004, Brady 2007, and Rodgers 2011).

what makes it all the more amazing is that Manning's physical skill has markedly diminished.  it's obvious to the naked eye that his arm strength is not only weaker than it was a decade ago, but it's actually strikingly poor.  if he were being scouted at the NFL combine scouts would write without hyperbole that he has less ability to put velocity on a throw than any QB they'd ever seen.  he can still, in a sense, throw the ball far, but for the most part he's doing it with accuracy and an unparalleled, encyclopedic football mind - the defense may as well tell him what they're doing before the snap.

[© tweed]

thanks.  though I made a few typos that are pissing me off.  Marino's 1984, for one, and the garble of words over where I was explaining the severity and unpredictability of a neck injury as compared to ligament replacement surgeries.


it also should be noted that I'm on an upper right now, that's chemically similar to what they give out as adhd medication.  one effect seems to be, I'm writing volumes about trivial topics without realizing... you wouldn't believe the nonsense I churned out last night about Cameron Diaz, of all things.  I guess this is what normal people call an "attention span", minus the ability to freely choose what I'd like to pay attention to.

[© tweed]

Why can't the NFL find any good QBs anymore.

this is a problem of perception.  there are a number of them.

part of the problem is how heavily people factor in Super Bowl victories when assessing a quarterback.  baseball fans have generally accepted Billy Beane's maxim of "the playoffs are a crapshoot", and that we are best off using regular season data to evaluate players.  the best, and devastatingly simple, reason to focus on regular season data is because there is so much more of it.  will we learn more about Tony Romo by studying his 122 regular season starts or his four postseason starts?

this concept is so simple that any literate teenager could understand it within minutes, and most baseball fans you'll find online accept it as a matter of course.  not so with football dialog, which is stuck in the Dark Ages.  a well argued, statement backed by real data, that argues Philip Rivers has been a better player than Eli Manning, will get you personally berated.  someone will grunt out "2 Super Bowls!" and the mob will consider the matter settled.

the sad fact is, that any productive, veteran QB who has not yet won a championship is not only un- or under-appreciated, but often viciously attacked. Rivers, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan fit the bill, Romo taking the worst of it due to the prominence of the Cowboys. 

capable players exist even at the level below the Romos and Ryans.  here you find your league-average quarterbacks.  they also take a ton of heat.  Andy Dalton's in that boat right now, and those 3 playoff losses in 3 years fan the flames of his torment. Cam Newton is another, he gets hit with terms like "not growing up" and "not a team leader".  Flacco would fit squarely in this group, but for his great play in 3 games in Jan/Feb '13.  perfect timing: crowned w/ a ring and a massive contract.  Cutler, too, is better than he's made out to be.  his body language is terrible, and doesn't give off that scrappy, love for the sport, addicted-to-competition vibe that the media eats up. though in his case, it's at least partially his fault - I don't doubt that he's difficult to work with on a daily basis. 

being a Jet fan has made me sensitive to the criticism of the average QB.  since Joe Namath - and though I adore him, he is perhaps the single most overrated QB in NFL history - the Jets have very rarely enjoyed anything approaching average quarterback play.  a fun thing to do is to go to a Jets message board and ask them to name the five best QBs in Jets history.  it's difficult for people to think of anyone other than Namath without racking their brain. you really begin to understand the futility when you realize that  it is more or less impossible for a reasonable man not to put Mark Sanchez into that fifth slot.

[© tweed]

Chad Henne is better than like half these names. Why can't the NFL find any good QBs anymore.

     There are a surprising number of teams that are desperate for a QB this year. Texans, Titans, Bills, Cardinals, Browns, Vikings, Jaguars, Rams, Redskins, Jets, Eagles, and Buccaneers have all made midseason switches due to injury and poor play. That's literally a third of the league with turnover at the most important position on the field.

all that is is a list of teams that have started more than one QB this season.  for it to mean anything at all you'd have to compare the # of multiple-QB teams to other years.

and even then, what's the point?  not all of those teams are bad, one even has 11 wins, another has 9, a few more with 8, another with 7.  nor have all of those teams received poor play from their QB position in the aggregate.  the Texans QBs have posted a total of 21 td/12 int, and an 85 rating; the Cardinals, 19/9 and an 83; the Bills, 22/13 and an 85; the Eagles, 25/20 and 84, with 7.3 y/a...  none of those teams have been ruined by the play of their QBs.

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looking to recent history: 12 of the past 15 Super Bowls have featured at least one team that started multiple players at QB during the regular season, though only 9 featured a team that started multiple QBs due to "poor performance or injury".  the other three cases involve a team opting not to play its starter in a meaningless Week 17 game.

digging deeper, we find that 5 of the past 15 Super Bowl champs started multiple QBs during the regular season "due to poor performance or injury":

-the 2000 Ravens: Trent Dilfer replaced Tony Banks;
-the 2001 Patriots: Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe;
-the 2002 Buccaneers: Brad Johnson missed three games due to injury; Shaun King (one start) and Rob Johnson (two starts);
-the 2005 Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger missed four games due to injury; Tommy Maddox (2 starts) and Charlie Batch (2 starts)
-the 2010 Packers: Aaron Rodgers missed one game due to injury; Matt Flynn (1 start)