Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly Nov 25-Dec 20 2014

[Famous Mortimer]

Elections wraped up in Kashmir

Massive defeat for the incumbent coalition of the National Conference and Congress.

Final results:

People's Democratic Party 28 seats
BJP 24
National Conference 15
INC 12
CPI (Marxist) 1

The National Conference is a pro-autonomy party which has been the first or second largest party in Kashmir for most of its history.

The People's Democratic Party is an ideology-less blob that broke away from Congress and is currently supported by sepratist voters.

BJP, which came in 4th last time, more than doubled their seats.

Mehbooba Mufti, daughter of the PDP's founder, will become the state's first female Chief Minister.

PDP-BJP is the most obvious road to a majority. Although a grand coalition with PDP, the National Conference, plus Congress would also have a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That would certainly be a great way for the PDP to destroy itself, yes.

[Famous Mortimer]

Which configuration are you talking about?

Or was that your point?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mostly its Muslims who vote for the PDP, so...

[jaichind]

Results in 2014 relative to 2008 assembly elections.  Both were 4 way contests between PDP JKN INC and BJP.  JKN-INC had a post-2008 election alliance and had the burden of incumbency.  I think with INC and JKN running separately, while it ensured that they will not return to power most likely helped avoid a total wipe-out with each party appealing to its base separately.  

           2008    seats    vote share         2014   seats      vote share
PDP                  21           15.3%                       28           22.7%
JKN                  28           23.1%                       15           20.8%
INC                  17           17.8%                       12           18.0%
BJP                   11           12.4%                      25          23.0%
JPC                                                                    2            1.9%
JKNPP                 3             3.3%                        0            2.0%
BSP                    0             3.7%                        0            1.4%

BJP took a lot of non-INC votes in Jammu and mostly swept the Hindu part of that region.  INC managed to keep its vote share intact but was defeated in Jammu with pretty much the entire non-INC Hindu vote base consolidating behind BJP.  The only seats INC won in Jammu are in Muslim areas.  The BSP which is a Dalit party lost a lot of ground in Jammu to BJP.  INC actually did pretty well in Lakakh.  In Kashmir the BJP is nowhere as 2008 and PDP beat out JKN and INC in various 3 cornered races.  JPC is a hard separatist outfit (PDP is more of a soft separatist outfit) which gained some ground in Kashmir.  JKNPP is a center-left party who has some strength in Hindu part of Jammu.  JKNPP lost ground and all its seats as the Hindu vote consolidated behind BJP or INC.

In may ways BJP lost ground relative to the 2014 LS elections.  There INC-JKN had an alliance and the results where
                    
2014 LS       seats      vote share
INC-JKN         0             33.3%
BJP                3             32.6%
PDP               3              20.7%
BSP               0               1.5%
JPC                0               2.0%
JKNPP            0               1.2%

The INC actually regained some ground in Jammu since May 2014 mostly by running without JKN so some Hindu and anti-JKN votes did come back although not enough to prevent a BJP sweep of the Hindu seats of Jammu.  Likewise JKN also regained ground since May 2014 mainly not being associated with the failed UPA-II regime.

As for government formation, it seems all options are open with the exception that INC and BJP cannot be on the same side.  Even regional rivals of PDP and JKN are open to an alliance.  The party, PDP or JKN, that allies with BJP will most likely get hammered in the next election in Kashmir.  Of course BJP-JKN will be hard to get the numbers while PDP-BJP will create problems for the BJP base since PDP is a soft separatist party.  
  

[jaichind]

Jharkhand also had elections on the same day and the result was a NDA (BJP-AJSU-LJP) majority.  The results when compared to 2009 was

2009                            seats      vote share
UPA  (INC+JVM)            25             24.1%
NDA (BJP+JD(U))           20             22.9%
JMM                              18             15.1%
RJD+ (RJD+LJP)             5               5.3%
AJSU                              5               5.2%
BSP                                0               2.5%
CPI(ML)(L)                      1               2.4%
JKP                                 1               1.1%
MCO                               1               1.1%
JBSP                               1               0.9%
AITC                               0               0.9%

2014
UPA (INC+JD(U)+RJD)    6             14.8%
NDA (BJP+AJSU+LJP)    42            35.7%
JMM                              19            20.8%
JVM+ (JVM+AITC)           8             10.7%
BSP                                1              1.8%
CPI(ML)(L)                      1              1.5%
JKP                                 1              1.1%
MCO                               1              1.0%
JBSP                               1              0.8%
NSM                               1              0.5%

Given the split of the INC and JMM I would have expected the BJP which now has AJSU on its side to have done even better since the anti-NDA vote would be split between UPA, JMM and JVM.   Perhaps like J&K, by having INC and JMM run separately, INC and JMM can appeal to they own separate bases with INC strong in caste Hindu areas and JMM in tribal areas.  The problem with INC is that their area of strength overlap with BJP whose strength wiped out UPA.

Just like J&K, the BJP have lost ground since the 2014 LS elections when the results were

2014   LS                            seats     vote share
UPA (INC+JMM+RJD)             2             24.6%
NDA (BJP)                            12             40.7%
JVM                                       0             12.3%
AJSU                                     0              3.8%
BSP                                       0              1.1%
CPI(ML)(L)                             0              2.5%
JKP                                        0              1.6%
JD(U)                                     0              0.7%

JVM which had most of its MLAs defect to BJP before the election actually did better than expected just like JMM.   For the JMM this was a fight for survival and it came out as a viable alternative to NDA in Jharkhand.   One reason that BJP lost ground since May 2014, some say, is the result of the BJP alliance with AJSU where a section of the BJP was opposed to this and worked to undermine NDA this election with JMM and JVM gaining as a result.  

As for government formation, now that NDA did not win a sweeping majority and that JVM did well there is talk that BJP might need to hedge themselves against AJSU and take JVM, which is a BJP splinter anywa, as an ally.  Babulal Marandi who is the founder of the JVM used to be an BJP CM of Jharkhand.  Of course AJSU might not take this too well so we will see.  There are plenty of games to be played before a CM is seated in Jharkhand.

[jaichind]

What is interesting about this Jharkhand election is leaders, especially ex-CMs,  of all types bit the bullet.

Arjun Munda who was the leader of the BJP and an ex-CM lost.  Madhu Koda who was a UPA backed CM lost.  Babulal Marandi who was a BJP CM but now head of JVM lost both seats he was contesting.  Sudesh Mahto who is the leader of AJSU which was fairly successful this election lost his own seat.  Even current CM Hemant Soren lost one of the two seats he was contesting. 

[Insula Dei]

The JK formation does seem to just drag on without getting anywhere. I gather that the PDP and BJP are talking, but that they also are both talking with INC and JKNC. The INC has apparently pledged its support to the PDP, while Omar Abdullah last week was endorsing Vajpayee to get the Jewel of India and this week is calling the BJP hypocritical for negotiating the repeal of the AFSPA (which grants the army special powers in the Valley). Does this mean that Abdullah was trying to strike a deal with the devil and has been rejected? Anyone more familiar with India have an idea?

[jaichind]

The JK formation does seem to just drag on without getting anywhere. I gather that the PDP and BJP are talking, but that they also are both talking with INC and JKNC. The INC has apparently pledged its support to the PDP, while Omar Abdullah last week was endorsing Vajpayee to get the Jewel of India and this week is calling the BJP hypocritical for negotiating the repeal of the AFSPA (which grants the army special powers in the Valley). Does this mean that Abdullah was trying to strike a deal with the devil and has been rejected? Anyone more familiar with India have an idea?

Well, BJP and INC will not be on the same side so BJP is not talking to INC.  Both other then that everyone is talking to everyone including independents.  One thing getting in the way with PDP and BJP is the view of Hurriyat which is a coalition of hard separatists that has links to PDP.  Hurriyat in turn has links to Pakistan.  PDP most likely is worried about getting their buy in or else they will lose their base next election. 

All things equal the most likely scenario is a PDP-BJP government as that suits everyone.  INC and NC need time to rebuild their popular base after a bad run in government.  BJP and PDP both want their chance to be in government.  That both will stand to lose support to INC and NC respectively if they form a coalition is overridden by the lure of power. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol this will end well!

[jaichind]

Just to show the gap between PDP which is backed by Muslim based separatist in Kashmir and the BJP/RSS see

http://www.firstpost.com/living/talk-of-40-engine-planes-ancient-surgery-overshadows-indian-science-congress-sparks-outrage-2029661.html

Where Hindu nationalist presented a paper in the Indian Science Congress, the premier science conference in India, that talked about learning from Vedic versus how to build airplanes.   

As one of my friends put it: It is based on the Vedic texts which are like Greek Mythology. Imagine someone presenting a paper saying that in Greek mythology Perseus had feet of wings and was known to fly; so therefore the ancient Greeks knew how to fly. "Our young ones should study these texts and learn from our ancestors how to fly..."

But this that is the gap at the grassroots level between the two sides

[Famous Mortimer]

Not like any of the BJP's alliances make any sense ideologically (barring Shiv Sena).

[Insula Dei]

Probably also worth mentioning that Pakistan has been busy shelling the International Border for the past couple of days.

[jaichind]

Not like any of the BJP's alliances make any sense ideologically (barring Shiv Sena).

Yes, but this one would be the most outlandish of all of them.  It would be like the David Duke Party forming a coalition government with the Black Panthers.  The NC did join NDA back in the late 1990s but NC is more moderate and BJP was also under a moderate like Vajpayee.   Now we have the more extremist versions of both NC (PDP) and Vajpayee (Modi.)

[jaichind]

Still no government in J&K.  It will most likely be PDP-BJP.  The BJP is holding off any real discussions about this until after the Delhi assembly election (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=206554.0) for fear that concessions will cost it votes in the BJP base in Delhi. 

[jaichind]

Upper House elections are coming to J&K.  PDP and BJP are cooperating in this election by sharing their surplus MLA votes to each other.  This pretty much seals the deal.  Once Delhi elections are over PDP-BJP will form a government in J&K.  This will truly be a government of opposites.  I wonder how long this will last before some blowup due to resistance and tension from the voting base of both parties. 

[jaichind]

It seems that PDP is playing hardball now that the BJP got crushed in Delhi elections.  The conditions put forward by PDP for a PDP-BJP alliance government include such things as negotiation with the pro-separatist Hurriyat would destroy the BJP with its voting base if it ever signed up for that.  So we are at a deadlock now.  Not sure which side will back down, if ever.  Eventually we might have to end up with another round of elections.

[jaichind]

Looks like PDP-BJP deal is done with a PDP CM.  On the whole the view is that PDP did not get as much out of BJP as their grassroots wanted especially in like of the INC and JKN offering to support a PDP government to keep BJP out.  The BJP grassroots did not get what they wanted but they have nowhere to go.  PDP votes could end up voting JKN next election if PDP-BJP government does not produce results that they want.