Last minute expand map megathread - Spending & visits in AZ, GA, WI, NM, MI, MN

[riceowl]

Are the trump election day events cancelled? All the news reports are saying yesterday was his last rally.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Trump should carry WI without much trouble. He led there after the tax return and first debate. MI is a pure toss up, but the large number of undecideds favor Trump. I have NM going to Trump because it's Johnson's home state, but if he collapses there as he has nationwide Hillary could still have a chance.

Where are you getting this from? Trump never led in a single Wisconsin poll...ever.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He led by 1 in a single day sample of the most recent Marquette poll.

Wow. A single day in a sample of multiple days. RIP Hillary.

The week after the first debate and the tax return scandal. If Trump was able to lead at that point than any recovery he gets is going to put him in the lead. Plus, outside of the PPP poll (which excluded third parties and was therefore useless), Hillary hasn't cracked 50% in the state in months. I was the one on this forum that said Trump would never win WI, but I assumed she'd be up by something like 51-44 at this point in the race, not 44-37. Those undecideds are basically lying or, as many others on this forum have stated, are looking for an excuse to vote GOP.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55

Trump never led Wisconsin. Ever. And I've said it before--nobody is winning a state that goes consistently to the opposite party in the GE if they were not able to win that state in a non-caucus primary vote.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.

Academically similar, but this is perfect positioning.  They are winning the big 3 (OH, NC, FL) and are looking for the last 10 to 11 Electoral votes in 9 states/districts.  If he wins NV he is looking for 4 or 5 electors in 8 states/districts.  How is Clinton going to defend everywhere when she is radioactive right now? 

In order:

He's not winning OH, NC, and FL right now.  OH at this point is probably Lean R, NC and FL Tossup to Lean D.

She's not radioactive right now.  Polls have shown very little movement due to Comey and she still has a clear lead in the polls, though narrower than it was a couple of weeks ago.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

From Trump's new fundraising email:


lol

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I think Michigan is a ploy from the Clinton campaign to get Trump to waste his time.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Smart move. If a freiwal state falls it's Wisconsin, no doubt.

[The Other Castro]

If they had given up earlier on VA, they might have been able to win MN or NH. NM was always dumb.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

If they had given up earlier on VA, they might have been able to win MN or NH. NM was always dumb.

-Yeah; Johnson killed Trump's chances in NM; Trump had no appeal in NoVa.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

I don't get what the Trump campaign saw in VA. The state was never going to vote for him or even be close.

-He remembered Mitt being close and W winning it? Dunno. W performed badly in NoVa in the primary, but won Fairfax County in 2000.