HYPO: Pataki vs. Cuomo 2014

[Free Bird]

Say Pataki wanted back in and decided to challenge a Cuomo again. With the proper funding and campaigning a la MA or WI, would he be in the governor's mansion again considering the huge wave? I ask this because Cuomo won by quite the small margin, proportionally speaking of course when you think about it, and Pataki kept winning even as New York kept getting bluer.

[Lief 🗽]

He'd do worse than Astorino did.

[Vosem]

Yeah, like many Republican gubernatorial candidates in blue states in 2014 Astorino was totally underestimated and was able to creep up on Cuomo and do significantly better than expected. He still lost by 13 points (and has probably guaranteed himself a future nomination if he wants one). Cuomo wasn't going to lose in 2014.

[Kraxner]

He'd do worse than Astorino did.

He'd do better actually. Pataki had three term experience and was known to be more liberal on social issues than the national GOP.  Even in 2006 he said that he would consider the state government recongize gay marriage performed in Massachusetts.  And was known to be closer to the democrats on abortion way back in 1994.

gay marriage even in 2006 was not as accepted until the last half decade.


But given the demographics in New York that has made the state more loopsided in favor of the democrats he'd have to pray that he'd get close.  

Its likely that Cuomo compared to this year would go left just like Quinn did against rauner, and Hawkins drops out just like the greens in illinois did to help quinn.

Then edge out a narrow victory. but Pataki probably gets 70-85% support in Upstate, wins the suburbs by 55-70%. But still lose because of NYC.

[sg0508]

Pataki's time had come and gone in NY.  His last term was not very successful and suffered from the "around too long" syndrome.  In reality, many believe that 9/11 saved him going into the '02 midterms.  He wouldn't have broken 40% against Cuomo.

[Kraxner]

Pataki's time had come and gone in NY.  His last term was not very successful and suffered from the "around too long" syndrome.  In reality, many believe that 9/11 saved him going into the '02 midterms.  He wouldn't have broken 40% against Cuomo.

Oh come on thats what people said about astorino and he broke 40% just slightly.

The real problem for pataki would be his age. He's turning 70 next year. Also as i said he'll be disadvantaged by the loopsided demographics.



Also he was leading Cuomo and McCall even before 9/11.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_gubernatorial_election,_2002#General_election

[Vega]

Maybe he hits 45%? I don't know; he's a spent force.

[Maxwell]

Cuomo would've taken the challenge serious and bombarded him with ads. It would've taken a more competent candidate than Astorino, but one easily as ignorable, to beat Cuomo.

[Maxwell]

Was Astorino really.. deserving of a shot at Governor? Did he have any name recognition?

The New York Republican bench is pretty bad (The whole bench is Richard Hanna and Chris Gibson, and Hanna almost got primaried this year), so in comparison to that, Asotrino didn't look so bad.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cuomo would still beat him, and by a lot, but still closer than the actual race and could be single digits.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

As Maxwell noted, you'd pretty much need a Larry Hogan type to beat Cuomo.

[136or142]

Yeah, like many Republican gubernatorial candidates in blue states in 2014 Astorino was totally underestimated and was able to creep up on Cuomo and do significantly better than expected. He still lost by 13 points (and has probably guaranteed himself a future nomination if he wants one). Cuomo wasn't going to lose in 2014.

1.He actually lost by 14% 54.2-40.2%

2.The Republican Party has praised him and to be sure Astorino performed better than expected, probably mainly because of the corruption charges leveled at Cuomo (who I can't stand).

That said, consider this:
total votes for Astorino: 1,536,879
total votes for Republicans for the U.S House: 1,554,274

and the Republicans only ran candidates in 18 of the 27 New York congressional districts

Conversely Cuomo  over performed the Congressional Democrats
total votes for Cuomo:  2,069,480
total votes for Congressional Democrats: 2,009,444

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Then edge out a narrow victory. but Pataki probably gets 70-85% support in Upstate, wins the suburbs by 55-70%. But still lose because of NYC.

...WTF? Pataki didn't get 70-85% of the Upstate vote even in his victorious elections. And Upstate is definitely less than 85% white. Nor did he ever get anywhere near 70% in the suburbs.

[Smash255]

Pataki's time had come and gone in NY.  His last term was not very successful and suffered from the "around too long" syndrome.  In reality, many believe that 9/11 saved him going into the '02 midterms.  He wouldn't have broken 40% against Cuomo.

Oh come on thats what people said about astorino and he broke 40% just slightly.

The real problem for pataki would be his age. He's turning 70 next year. Also as i said he'll be disadvantaged by the loopsided demographics.



Also he was leading Cuomo and McCall even before 9/11.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_gubernatorial_election,_2002#General_election

Astronino took 40% because of how horrible turnout was.   Pataki might have done slightly better, but it wouldn't have been that close either.

[IceSpear]

It would be interesting. As others have stated, it's actually possible that Pataki would do worse/the same as Astorino, since Cuomo would've taken the challenge seriously and buried him in ads, and made more of an effort in GOTV operations. If Pataki had enough financial support I could see him keeping it within single digits, but I can't really see him winning.

[Suburbia]

Pataki would have made it closer but lose 56-42.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Yeah, like many Republican gubernatorial candidates in blue states in 2014 Astorino was totally underestimated and was able to creep up on Cuomo and do significantly better than expected. He still lost by 13 points (and has probably guaranteed himself a future nomination if he wants one). Cuomo wasn't going to lose in 2014.

You also have to take into account that some of Cuomo's support was chipped into by some on the left who really didn't like him and voted for Hawkins.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Pataki would have made it closer but lose 56-42.

Delightfully, that's not actually closer than the real margin.

[dmmidmi]

I tip my cap to the 11 people who are either trolling or delusional, and voted for Pataki.

[Simfan34]

Astorino definitely outperformed and would have done better had people not written him off as much as they did and thus gave greater support and resources to his campaign, and getting more people to the polls. Pataki might have gotten 42%-47% simply by drawing more people and attention, but I do admit that with this present environment it's doubtful he could defeat an incumbent Democrat.