If the GOP passed a reasonable immigration plan (that would be a no on the mass deportation and fence building) they could get the Hispanic vote to be at least 50-50. That seems like the most likely group they could win over.
Yeah, that's why GHW Bush won the Hispanic vote after Reagan's amnesty, right?
No. Hispanics are still rising through the ranks of the poor and working class. They will not vote for the party that marginalizes them economically through gutting government programs that help them up until the majority of them achieves economic security.
I remember someone posted the results of a poll of Hispanics by income, and obviously poor and working class Hispanics gave whopping 75%+ of their vote to the Democrats. Once they broke $50,000, there was a massive drop off as they voted only 51% Dem. However, the majority of Hispanic voters made less than $50K per year, and so you got Obama's 71% of the vote result in 2012.
Voting tends to be less about race and more about economics (though that's merely a rule of thumb to start at, and cultural issues and race can cancel that out, like how blacks of all economic classes vote heavily Democratic, while Asians, who "should" vote Republican based on economics, flipped Democratic from 2000 - 2012).
If the Republican Party wants to win over Hispanic voters, amnesty/immigration reform alone won't be enough. Figuring out a convincing economic message will be the biggest part of any future GOP improvement with Hispanics. GW Bush understood this (it was more than just "tax cuts and deregulation for everyone!), and combined with his foreign policy pitch and targeting more conservative Hispanics, he won 37% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, helping him to lock up Florida, Colorado, and Nevada, while flipping New Mexico.
I voted Asians, based primarily on economic issues alone. They would be the easiest group to flip, however Hispanics would be more rewarding (in terms of the popular vote, as IIRC Asians are slightly more prevalent in swing states than Hispanics are, who are concentrated in safe states). However, to actually win over the group, this would require some serious tone
and policy changes, which I think if combined with a favorable environment, could also see vast GOP improvements with Hispanics, whites (breaking 60%?), and "others" as well.
That would probably indicate a big Republican win, but even small gains across the board could prove life or death in Senate, Gubernatorial, and Presidential elections.
Poll
