Don't Get Cocky: An Observation

[Free Bird]

Democrats, I can understand when you say that socially conservative Republicans are a dying breed. They are. But you like to construe it as the death of the party as a whole to the benefit of the Democrats. I pose a question. If the GOP DID die, do you really think that the map would stay the same, and that it would just become a one party country? That is simply nonsense. Another party would rise up and take the place of the Republican Party. One party rule would never work, and the prospect that the GOP is "dying" is also proposterous.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

It would slowly evolve into something different but that would take a while to happen. I agree that the GOP dying, really either party dying is kind of an absurd premise but I don't think that its entirely outside the realm of possibility that for the short term at least at the Presidential level the GOP may be facing an uphill battle.

[Frodo]

I can only speak for myself here, but I would be more than happy if the GOP were to moderate to something akin to its ideological counterparts in the UK, Canada, Australia, or New Zealand -although the last is probably asking a bit much....

[Free Bird]

It would slowly evolve into something different but that would take a while to happen. I agree that the GOP dying, really either party dying is kind of an absurd premise but I don't think that its entirely outside the realm of possibility that for the short term at least at the Presidential level the GOP may be facing an uphill battle.

I definitely agree that it is evolving. That is why I think Paul has a distinct edge. Like Clinton before him, he is offering an evolution to revive a dying brand.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

I'm more concerned with having a better Democratic Party. I think that the level of discourse has been dumbed down so much in this country. Most Dems cant even see they're own parties problems because the GOP is so extreme and yesterday's "moderate" Republicans have all migrated to the Democrats dragging them further to the right.

[IceSpear]

Well, social conservatives will never entirely die off. They'll just become marginalized and less powerful. As long as the political coalitions stay similar to what they are today, there's always going to be a socially conservative bloc within the GOP. Eventually, they'll probably be shoved off to the back of the bus and ignored (but still thrown a bone every once in a while to keep them on board, since their votes are essential). Basically, they'll find themselves in the same position the hardcore leftists in the Democratic Party have been in since the 90s.

[DrScholl]

The GOP self-destructing into a party that couldn't obstruct would be best for everyone and even Republicans should recognize that. It's not productive to have a major political party who shuts down the government over political reasons.

[Xing]

When/if it becomes clear that a socially conservative Republican cannot win nationally, the party will likely move to the center. It's just not clear when exactly that will happen.

[The Mikado]

The GOP isn't dying. It has a built in massive advantage in Congress, and as polarization grows deeper, that includes the Senate. It might face a serious uphill climb to grabbing the White House, but it has one third of the government firmly in its pocket and a very friendly Supreme Court in another third.

[coloradocowboi]

The GOP self-destructing into a party that couldn't obstruct would be best for everyone and even Republicans should recognize that. It's not productive to have a major political party who shuts down the government over political reasons.

I think that it goes beyond this though.

Since Nixon's Southern Strategy in 1968, the GOP has used racism, homophobia, sexism, xenophobia, and a host of other issues which prey on people's social fears to win election. However, few Republican members of Congress were true believers. The GOP after Taft was the party of choice of the nation's wealthy elite and after the New Deal had subjected them to higher taxes and greater labor regulations, they began to fear that the US would slip into socialism, so they fought back, first with the bailout of NYC in the early 70s and onwards, creating a very discordant ideological blend of pure liberal capitalism and social conservatism and inventing a fantasy of America as a "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" country. This fantasy appealed to people so they voted for Reagan, giving him massive landslide wins.

However, this image of American exceptionalism was offensive to many, especially African Americans, gays and lesbians, feminists, etc. The Reagan-Ayn Rand ideological paradigm demonized these people, playing off of old fears, but using new rhetoric to turn the majority of the country against them. My grandparents voted for Reagan thinking he would make America "great" again, conveniently forgetting that it wasn't this "independent spirit" that made us great, but our ability to work together and overcome the ugly inheritances of our colonial past. The 90s were when the culture wars began to heat up. Bill Clinton tried to take a middle path to circumvent them, but ended up bowing to the "silent majority" to cut welfare and deny gays civil rights. Wealth inequality increased manifold as important services in the safety net were squashed and all the progress made from 1932-1968 in healing our nation's post Gilded Age divisions were squashed. George W. Bush used homophobia and xenophobia to eke out small wins, but the burgeoning urban class--composed mostly of those very people alienated by the rhetoric of the Reagan years, gave Democrats a high floor.

In 2008, the floor rose above 50% and the Republicans panicked. The rank and file supporters of the Republican Party, the true believers in a version of American history that never even existed took to the streets, angry and fearful of the coming changes in America, and basically took over the party from the elite who had always ran the show. Now, they manage to scare up enough of their base to win the midterms handily, but this too won't last. Eventually their supporters will get old and pass away, change their minds about gays and blacks and immigrants, become disillusioned, or just realize that the Republican Party establishment sold them a lie for 40+ years because some billionaires in Manhattan wanted lower taxes.

The period of progressivism in America is just beginning. It may not be an abrupt change like Roosevelt's 1932 romp, but that's because the issue is more complicated. However, if we do not create a country where the income of your parents, the color of your skin, the gender of your lover (or yourself for that matter) does not control your outcome in life, we will slide into irrelevancy and violence and most of us know that. The GOP obstructionism has less to do with not passing bills and more to do with perpetuating harmful cultural ideas and a culture war that is literally trying to stand against the tides of time.

I'm not a socialist like I was in my youth, but I'm not a big fan of capitalism either. We don't have either in this country, however. WE have a system that benefits the elite, almost like neo-feudalism, and the inevitable demise of the GOP is the beginning of that system's end. I think in the near future we will see the Dems go extinct too, or change, and the debate will re-center on a Rand Paul-like ideology that emphasize personal responsibility and open marketplaces and a Leftist ideology that is inspired by, but not really socialism. This will be a good and healthy debate for America, but to get there we have to cut the hateful elements out of our politics. That starts with the end of the current GOP.

[CountryClassSF]

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[DS0816]

Democrats, I can understand when you say that socially conservative Republicans are a dying breed. They are. But you like to construe it as the death of the party as a whole to the benefit of the Democrats. I pose a question. If the GOP DID die, do you really think that the map would stay the same, and that it would just become a one party country? That is simply nonsense. Another party would rise up and take the place of the Republican Party. One party rule would never work, and the prospect that the GOP is "dying" is also proposterous.

We're in a realigning period for the Democrats winning the presidency while the Republicans win majority control of the U.S. House.

How is that getting cocky?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Democrats, I can understand when you say that socially conservative Republicans are a dying breed. They are. But you like to construe it as the death of the party as a whole to the benefit of the Democrats. I pose a question. If the GOP DID die, do you really think that the map would stay the same, and that it would just become a one party country? That is simply nonsense. Another party would rise up and take the place of the Republican Party. One party rule would never work, and the prospect that the GOP is "dying" is also proposterous.

The GOP needs their Bill Clinton who can revive their party. While they arent as dead at the presidential level as the Democrats were in the 1980s they are still at a disadvantage and need their version of Bill Clinton who can remove that disadvantage

[pbrower2a]

Americans have known two times in which one of the two main Parties die: the Federalists and the Whigs both in the early half of the 19th century. In both cases the Democratic Party became the 'only game in town', and elections were decided during the primaries instead of during the general election. In both cases the Democratic Party split because it was unwieldy. The Whigs formed the first time, and the Republican Party formed the second time.  

It is possible to have a single party as a broad coalition, a party whose meaningful election is in the preliminary election because that election is itself democratic. The African National Congress of South Africa has operated that way. Would that work in America with the Republican Party? Hardly -- because the Republican party has a big semi-fascist wing. With the Democrats? Not likely for long, because some of the nominees would eventually show themselves incompetent, corrupt, or inattentive. A second Party would form or the Democratic Party would itself split, and we would be back to a two-Party system.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'd like if both parties just made peace on gay marriage and abortion, and we started focusing on issues of privacy and guns as a focal point.

the US focuses too much on social issues, but not enough on social issues you find interesting?

[smoltchanov]

I'm more concerned with having a better Democratic Party. I think that the level of discourse has been dumbed down so much in this country. Most Dems cant even see they're own parties problems because the GOP is so extreme and yesterday's "moderate" Republicans have all migrated to the Democrats dragging them further to the right.

You honestly believe that majority of Americans craves for left-wing policy? With only 22-23% of people calling itself "liberals" (and that's not a very left-wing term)??

[ElectionsGuy]

Agree completely. A party that survived 160 years, through the 1930's, and a party that consistently gets at least 45% in nationwide elections is not going to go die.

[muon2]

Americans have known two times in which one of the two main Parties die: the Federalists and the Whigs both in the early half of the 19th century. In both cases the Democratic Party became the 'only game in town', and elections were decided during the primaries instead of during the general election. In both cases the Democratic Party split because it was unwieldy. The Whigs formed the first time, and the Republican Party formed the second time.  

Yes, the Federalists were last on the presidential ballot in 1816 and for the next two cycles only Democratic-Republicans were on the ballot. However there were no primaries for the D-Rs and nominees came from Congress. In 1824 that system failed and the electoral college acted as a primary with the runoff occurring in the House. In 1828 the D-Rs split with each separately nominating a candidate. The Whigs were not the immediate product since in 1828 and 1832 the Democrats and National Republicans were the parties. The Whigs emerged from a merger after the 1832 elections. And the most significant change was the use of nominating conventions to select presidential nominees.

The Republicans of the 1850's did not form from a split within the Democratic Party, but from a split within the Whigs over the issue of slavery. The three candidates in 1856 represented the Democrats and two former Whig factions one of which was the Republican and the other was headed by former president Fillmore, and the two former factions again had candidates in 1860 (Lincoln and Bell). So it is quite incorrect to say that the Democrats ever became the 'only game in town' at a national level after the initial split by 1828. Also it is incorrect to think modern primaries decided anything in the 1800's since they weren't in use until the 20th century.

[bobloblaw]

It would slowly evolve into something different but that would take a while to happen. I agree that the GOP dying, really either party dying is kind of an absurd premise but I don't think that its entirely outside the realm of possibility that for the short term at least at the Presidential level the GOP may be facing an uphill battle.

You realize in Canada the Conservative Party in less than 13 years went from fringe protest party called the Reform Party to having enough seats to form a minority government.

If the GOP disappeared, there would be a compettive party to the Dems in less than 2 cycles.

[bobloblaw]

The degree to which the left endulges in their own propaganda is amazing.

There are more elected members of the GOP right now than at anytime since 1928.

The left engages in this fantasy of a one party state. The left believes very much is "perfecting humanity" and creating a utopia on earth. To do so you need to elimiate all opposition. This is why we see leftists embracing regimes like Cuba, Venzuela and China. Why they admired Alan Greenspan, even though he was a GOper. He wasnt accountable to anyone.

[bobloblaw]

The degree to which the left endulges in their own propaganda is amazing.

There are more elected members of the GOP right now than at anytime since 1928.

The left engages in this fantasy of a one party state. The left believes very much is "perfecting humanity" and creating a utopia on earth. To do so you need to elimiate all opposition. This is why we see leftists embracing regimes like Cuba, Venzuela and China. Why they admired Alan Greenspan, even though he was a GOper. He wasnt accountable to anyone.

How dare those damn libs actually care about other human beings.

Perfecting humanity isnt the same as caring about human beings. Perfecting humanity is educated elites running the lives of the citizenry

[bobloblaw]

The degree to which the left endulges in their own propaganda is amazing.

There are more elected members of the GOP right now than at anytime since 1928.

The left engages in this fantasy of a one party state. The left believes very much is "perfecting humanity" and creating a utopia on earth. To do so you need to elimiate all opposition. This is why we see leftists embracing regimes like Cuba, Venzuela and China. Why they admired Alan Greenspan, even though he was a GOper. He wasnt accountable to anyone.

How dare those damn libs actually care about other human beings.

Perfecting humanity isnt the same as caring about human beings. Perfecting humanity is educated elites running the lives of the citizenry

Yes because universal healthcare is going to "run the lives of the citizenry".

Oh wait no, healthcare is still run by private businesses. Hmm... I though Obama was a left wing socialist nutjob? What happened?

Read Cass Sunsteins "Nudge" to understand progressives

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The degree to which the left endulges in their own propaganda is amazing.

There are more elected members of the GOP right now than at anytime since 1928.

The left engages in this fantasy of a one party state. The left believes very much is "perfecting humanity" and creating a utopia on earth. To do so you need to elimiate all opposition. This is why we see leftists embracing regimes like Cuba, Venezuela and China. Why they admired Alan Greenspan, even though he was a GOper. He wasnt accountable to anyone.

??

[KingSweden]

I think a lot of our Republican posters misunderstand some of our Dems and think that a few of us are indicating that Repubs will never again be able to win an election once there are enough minorities and young liberals to outvote the GOP base consistently. This is nonsense, of course. The two parties have been around since the 1850s and aren't going anywhere.

However, it's not that the party will never be able to win "because demographics," it's that the Overton Window of policy and the political center will inevitably move left as the country's population moves left. This includes old Boomers and Gen Xers who will become ever more skeptical of ideas like the Ryan plan once they are actually on Medicare and Social Security. The GOP will, at some point, move left as the Democratic party continues to move even further left.

The party is too entrenched and established to go away. They will win Presidential elections, maybe even some by landslides, and they will continue to succeed in Congress in both Houses, likely often controlling both Houses - but as the generational shift continues and the demographics change, they WILL have to change which voters they are appealing to and how. The salient issues of the day will be different. Voter ID and all those things etc. to stop that from happening will only work for so long. The GOP of the 2030s and 2040s will likely look very different from that of today. The coalition they assemble to win national and Congressional elections will look different from the one they do now, as will the one Democrats stitch together to win.

[Frodo]

It would slowly evolve into something different but that would take a while to happen. I agree that the GOP dying, really either party dying is kind of an absurd premise but I don't think that its entirely outside the realm of possibility that for the short term at least at the Presidential level the GOP may be facing an uphill battle.

You realize in Canada the Conservative Party in less than 13 years went from fringe protest party called the Reform Party to having enough seats to form a minority government.

In large part because they marginalized the social conservatives within their party.