CNN (National): Hillary Clinton up by 13-25 over various Republicans

[pbrower2a]

Many of the RV adults of 2016 are not registered voters in 2014.

Turnout in open-seat Presidential years is usually high, and it could be even higher in a year in which one of the Parties is extremely unpopular.   

[pbrower2a]

A 13% margin translates as 56%-43%.  A 25% margin translates to 62%-37%. 

The greatest percentage margins in the last century in binary races between winners and losers in the Presidential election have  been roughly 24% (FDR vs. Landon), 23% (Nixon vs. McGovern) and 22% (LBJ vs. Goldwater). All involved an incumbent against a sacrificial lamb.

In case you wonder about 1984 -- the margin was 'only' about 18%... and Ronald Reagan won 49 states because partisan polarization between the states was practically nil.   

Assuming that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, she will imply some unique qualities in the campaign. Least important will be that she will be the first female nominee of one of the two major political parties for President. She will be the spouse of a former President, and as such she will know her way around the political process as few Americans  have ever had. She has experience both in elected office and in the Cabinet.

We shall soon see whether the Republican Party will be an asset or a liability in 2016. Its politicians get to dominate the political discourse for two years, and by November 2016 we will see whether the political scene is more like 2010 -- or 2006.

[pbrower2a]

With the arguable exceptions of the two Presidential elections involving Eisenhower and the two involving Obama, every Presidential election is different. The least significant aspects of the 2016 Presidential elections will be, should Hillary Clinton be the Democratic nominee, will be her gender and that she is the spouse of a President. Barack Obama smashed so many assumptions about the Presidency as a preserve almost exclusively for white male Protestants (John F. Kennedy barely got elected) that... well, anyone can be President if he has the usual traits of personality, character, and ability.  

On the other side, quality still matters. Voters nationwide prefer that the President not be an extremist or a fool, and Barack Obama did nothing to cause anyone to question that assumption.  Some Republican candidates are going to show why political experience in high office matters, and why taking stands that alienate nearly a half of the public before the election is bad politics. Some are going to make gaffes that show themselves as mediocrities or worse.  

Some of the 25-point gaps involve Hillary Clinton against people who have no real chance of winning the Republican nomination.