Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Bacon King]

Whatever happened to Social Agreement? Do they still exist?

They still have a semi-active website including a post from yesterday where I think they say they're going to participate in the upcoming elections (can someone better at Greek plz verify?)

http://www.koinonikisymfonia.gr

[Zanas]

For the Greek-alphabetically-challenged around here, here are the transcriptions from that poll from left to right :

Syriza
ND
To Potami (The River)
Chryssé Augé (Golden Dawn)
KKE
Pasok (ahahahahahah)
Anexartitoi Ellines (Independent Greeks - Anel)
Oikologoi Prasinoi (Ecologist Greens - OP)
Allo (Others - as in "allophone")
Den echo apophasisei (Undecided)
Leuko / Akyro (White (as in "leukemia") / Invalid)
Den tha psephiso (I won't vote)
DXDA - Den xero / Den apanto (I don't know / No answer)

Also, this poll shows us, in its crosstabs, that 9% of last time ND voters are now choosing Syriza. Among last time Pasok voters, 23% have switched towards Syriza, 18% to ND and 11% to Potami, with 20%+ undecided.

Finally, in terms of valid decided votes, this poll translates into this :
Syriza 35% (144)
ND 29% (78)
Potami 9.5% (25)
Golden Dawn 7% (19)
KKE 5% (13)
Pasok 4.5% (12)
Anel 3.5% (9)
Other 6.5%

Absolute majority is at 151 seats. If you lower Anel level to 2.99%, below the 3% threshold, Syriza gets to 147 seats. Looking good for now, but I agree with Comrade Tito supra, the terror campaign by the Goodthink European media and austeritarian governments has not begun to kick in...

[Zinneke]

Papandreou is starting his own movement. I think he just realises that he'll be low on the PASOK list so he's saving face while he still can. Perhaps his name alone will carry him across the line, but I really don't see how PASOK, DIMAR, The Reformists, To Potami and the Papandreou Party can all co-exist.  I imagine they are all vying for some imaginary centre-left vote that has all but disappeared with the rise of Syriza.

[politicus]

Papandreou is starting his own movement. I think he just realises that he'll be low on the PASOK list so he's saving face while he still can. Perhaps his name alone will carry him across the line, but I really don't see how PASOK, DIMAR, The Reformists, To Potami and the Papandreou Party can all co-exist.

Potami and the Reformists are merging.

Papandreou de facto declared his intent to go solo almost a month ago before the election seemed inevitable. I think his party will do significantly better than (rump-)Pasok.

DIMAR is a non-entity by now. They try to "merge" with Syriza, but are still setting unrealistic demands (keeping separate structure and policy concessions) as if they had any bargaining position.

[Zinneke]

Papandreou is starting his own movement. I think he just realises that he'll be low on the PASOK list so he's saving face while he still can. Perhaps his name alone will carry him across the line, but I really don't see how PASOK, DIMAR, The Reformists, To Potami and the Papandreou Party can all co-exist.

As mentioned earlier Potami and the Reformists are merging.

Papandreou de facto declared his intent to go solo almost a month ago before the election seemed inevitable. I think his party will do significantly better than (rump-)Pasok.

That's just insane. How does Papaendreou's name continue to carry such support? It's like voting for the blind over the one-eyed.

Also, what happened to the Olive Tree alliance to help boost Pasok's chances?

[politicus]

Papandreou is starting his own movement. I think he just realises that he'll be low on the PASOK list so he's saving face while he still can. Perhaps his name alone will carry him across the line, but I really don't see how PASOK, DIMAR, The Reformists, To Potami and the Papandreou Party can all co-exist.

As mentioned earlier Potami and the Reformists are merging.

Papandreou de facto declared his intent to go solo almost a month ago before the election seemed inevitable. I think his party will do significantly better than (rump-)Pasok.

That's just insane. How does Papaendreou's name continue to carry such support? It's like voting for the blind over the one-eyed.

It will be more a question of rump-Pasok doing really badly. Papandreou has at least been critical of the government and austerity.

[Zanas]

Quite a number of Greeks seem to just vote for Papandreou's name by generations of induced Pavlovian reflexes.

[Vosem]

If not for the 50-seat bonus, were I Greek I might've supported some minor party as a protest (or even KKE, to counter Golden Dawn), but when you consider the 50-seat bonus and the possibility of Syriza getting it, I think no sane person would vote for anything other than ND.

[Bacon King]

Considering that Papandreou's new outfit will doubtlessly take a good chunk of PASOK's remaining supporters, anyone else think it's a realistic possibility that PASOK fails to meet the threshold?

[politicus]

Considering that Papandreou's new outfit will doubtlessly take a good chunk of PASOK's remaining supporters, anyone else think it's a realistic possibility that PASOK fails to meet the threshold?

Yes. More likely than not actually. Papandreou only needs to take a third of their voters for it to happen and I think he will get at least half.

[Zinneke]

Papandreou is starting his own movement. I think he just realises that he'll be low on the PASOK list so he's saving face while he still can. Perhaps his name alone will carry him across the line, but I really don't see how PASOK, DIMAR, The Reformists, To Potami and the Papandreou Party can all co-exist.

Potami and the Reformists are merging.

Papandreou de facto declared his intent to go solo almost a month ago before the election seemed inevitable. I think his party will do significantly better than (rump-)Pasok.

DIMAR is a non-entity by now. They try to "merge" with Syriza, but are still setting unrealistic demands (keeping separate structure and policy concessions) as if they had any bargaining position.

I wonder where DIMAR got their support from in the first place? They had a pretty similar programme to Syriza save the bailout concession demands and have Syriza-DNA in them. The collapse of PASOK no doubt played a part but I wonder how they managed to profit ahead of other moderate-cum-radical left parties in Greece. Do they have traditional strongholds or family allegiances that date back to the Civil War and the ELAS factions?

[justfollowingtheelections]

Papandreou is starting his own movement. I think he just realises that he'll be low on the PASOK list so he's saving face while he still can. Perhaps his name alone will carry him across the line, but I really don't see how PASOK, DIMAR, The Reformists, To Potami and the Papandreou Party can all co-exist.

Potami and the Reformists are merging.

Papandreou de facto declared his intent to go solo almost a month ago before the election seemed inevitable. I think his party will do significantly better than (rump-)Pasok.

DIMAR is a non-entity by now. They try to "merge" with Syriza, but are still setting unrealistic demands (keeping separate structure and policy concessions) as if they had any bargaining position.

I wonder where DIMAR got their support from in the first place? They had a pretty similar programme to Syriza save the bailout concession demands and have Syriza-DNA in them. The collapse of PASOK no doubt played a part but I wonder how they managed to profit ahead of other moderate-cum-radical left parties in Greece. Do they have traditional strongholds or family allegiances that date back to the Civil War and the ELAS factions?

Well initially when DIMAR split off from SYRIZA in some polls they appeared to be challenging PASOK for second place, at a time when no one could imagine a third party beating PASOK or ND.  They appeared to be the "responsible" leftist party that knew how to get things done and would do what it takes at a time when SYRIZA was being accused by the right and the center of being the party responsible for a lot of the "bad" incidents that occurred during the anti-austerity demonstrations and for supporting left-wing terrorism.  

Eventually the reason SYRIZA was able to rise to 2nd place in the May '09 elections (IMO at least, and my opinion is based on the significant amount of research I have done on the issue) was because it had a better ground game and was able to draw voters (and most importantly organizers) from the "aganaktismenoi" movement.  SYRIZA was able to elect quite a few MPs in their 20s and 30s that weren't tv personalities or came from rich or political families which was usually the case with all fresh faces elected by ND or PASOK.  Tsipras also tried to convey a positive, left-wing alternative message which I guess resonated with a lot of voters tired of hardliners and cynicism.
DIMAR on the other hand appeared to be more of an establishment party (which some voters liked) without the stench of corruption that PASOK had, but I guess their leaders didn't have the personality to convince enough voters that they would actually change something for the better.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, Sweden off and Greece on ?

OK.

Hopefully SYRIZA (even if they come out on top) will be sidelined after the election.

The last thing Greece needs now is a leftist "experiment".

The last thing Greece needs now, and ever, is a continued presence of an openly fascist party as a major political force. Anyone who believes otherwise is either blind or worse.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Would a Syriza-Potami-Papandreou (should Papandreou get over 3%) be a realistic coalition, or would Papandreou refuse to join  such a constellation.

Also around what percentage would the 50 seat bonus give Syriza a majority? 

[Boston Bread]

I think 37-39% would get SYRIZA a majority, depending on how many minor parties meet the 3% threshold. They are closing up on that range in current polling. It's funny that one of the biggest critiques of FPTP in Canada is that a party can get a majority with under 40% of the vote (hence 60+% "voted against them") yet Greece's proportional system can give the same result because of the 50 seat bonus.

[Zanas]

I think 37-39% would get SYRIZA a majority, depending on how many minor parties meet the 3% threshold. They are closing up on that range in current polling. It's funny that one of the biggest critiques of FPTP in Canada is that a party can get a majority with under 40% of the vote (hence 60+% "voted against them") yet Greece's proportional system can give the same result because of the 50 seat bonus.

For the moment, Syriza is not getting it before reaching 37-38%, yes. But if you imagine Anel under 3%, which they got in a few recent polls, and every other force in their lower bracket, i.e. ND at 27%, Potami and XA at 7%, Pasok and KKE at 6%, then Syriza will get to 151 seats as soon as 35.5%.

So the dynamics are really important now, Syriza desperately needs to steal away a few votes from each of the surrounding forces. I think Potami is the most vulnerable one.

[EPG]

I think 37-39% would get SYRIZA a majority, depending on how many minor parties meet the 3% threshold. They are closing up on that range in current polling. It's funny that one of the biggest critiques of FPTP in Canada is that a party can get a majority with under 40% of the vote (hence 60+% "voted against them") yet Greece's proportional system can give the same result because of the 50 seat bonus.

I'm sure the list-system partisan would say "the 50-seat bonus means Greece does not have a proportional system".

[politicus]

I think 37-39% would get SYRIZA a majority, depending on how many minor parties meet the 3% threshold. They are closing up on that range in current polling. It's funny that one of the biggest critiques of FPTP in Canada is that a party can get a majority with under 40% of the vote (hence 60+% "voted against them") yet Greece's proportional system can give the same result because of the 50 seat bonus.

I'm sure the list-system partisan would say "the 50-seat bonus means Greece does not have a proportional system".

It is obvious that the bonus means Greece does not have a fully proportional system. It is by definition moderated PR.

Personally I think a higher threshold woud have been fairer and it would have forced the moderate centre-left to unite. Still, while Golden Dawn was polling at ther best no realistic threshold could have kept them out.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

GD makes a good argument for some form of preferential vote - they'll be at the last pretty much everybody's transfer list so they can effectively be restricted.

[morgieb]

Surely SYRIZA will get a pluarity? Will be very surprised if they don't.

Whether that means they'll govern is another question.

[politicus]

Surely SYRIZA will get a pluarity? Will be very surprised if they don't.

Whether that means they'll govern is another question.

Not really. There will be no realistic alternative to them if Syriza gets the bonus (in which case Syriza and the two antisystem parties (KKE and Golden Dawn) would have a majority of the seats).

[politicus]

Papandreou is not starting a new party.. no, no, nothing that trivial. He is starting a "progressive movement" named either Change Movement or New Change and with a platform that will be decided at a congress after the election... so "vote for change" delivered by a guy that has been around forever in charge of a movement without a program.

"A Movement which will work in the next parliament to secure all of the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the crisis.

A Movement which will give all of its powers to make a reality of the transition to a Post-clientelist Greece, with a vision of building a Greece of Justice and Creativity."


http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreou-announces-new-progressive-movement

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreous-new-party-taking-form

Still:

"A large percentage of the party’s candidates expected to be under 40 and relative newcomers to politics."
  

[politicus]

Also:

"However the risk very much remains of the PASOK vote (which is currently polling at around 5%) simply being split down the middle between the remains of PASOK and Papandreou’s new party. That would leave both parties out of parliament (at least 3% of the vote is required for parties to elect MPs to parliament)."

Would be hilarious if that happened.

[MaxQue]

Also:

"However the risk very much remains of the PASOK vote (which is currently polling at around 5%) simply being split down the middle between the remains of PASOK and Papandreou’s new party. That would leave both parties out of parliament (at least 3% of the vote is required for parties to elect MPs to parliament)."

Would be hilarious if that happened.

Well, perhaps Papandreou will really bring change. Him and his family being irrelevent and outside Parliament. That would be huge change.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Well that turned out to be anticlimactic... I had expected Papandreou to give us something with a bit of substance at least. 

"A Movement which will work in the next parliament to secure all of the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the crisis."

I love a political party that tells us they will solve a problem with-out telling us how they plan solve it.
The above statement could in practice mean almost anything, and since the party won't get a platform until after the elections it would seem they will fight the campaign on equally empty and meaningless rhetoric and talking points. If they actually manage to beat the 3% threshold I expect their parliamentary group to break down at the first tough vote.     

I give Papandreou an F for a jokingly bad attemt to create a new party. Someone should ask him why, since he claims to know the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the greek crisis, he didn't just solved the problem when he was Prime Minister.