Greek election - January 25th 2015

[politicus]

DIMAR will officially run as "Greens-Democratic Left".

Did they merge with a green party or is it just a name change?

[justfollowingtheelections]

DIMAR will officially run as "Greens-Democratic Left".

Did they merge with a green party or is it just a name change?

Yes with a Green party founded by a former Ecologist-Green (OP) MEP who left the Ecologist-Greens (OP) before the 2014 EU elections.  They had a little more than 28 thousand votes in the EU elections last year.

[politicus]

Pretty good myth busting piece about Syriza by a German economist:

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/opinion/article/myth-and-reality-in-syrizas-platform

[Velasco]

Election coverage in Der Spiegel.

"Germany Open to Possible Greek Euro Zone Exit" (already mentioned)

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/merkel-and-germany-open-to-possible-greek-euro-zone-exit-a-1011277.html

"What Would Syriza's Victory Mean for Europe?"


http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/aims-of-greek-politician-alexis-tsipras-remain-a-mystery-in-europe-a-1011288.html

Jakob Augstein wonders if there's a reason for  Greece's suffering (German):

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/augstein-kolumne-griechenland-und-seine-schulden-a-1010909.html

[Tender Branson]

The pollster "Marc" seems to be the most accurate (I looked at the final polls ahead of the last few elections).

"Marc" currently shows SYRIZA ahead by ca. 3%

[politicus]

The first poll I have seen with MDS in it:    

Syriza 35.0
ND 25.0
Pasok 2.2    
ANEL 2.5    
Golden Dawn 8.6       
KKE 5.0    
Potami 4.0    
MDS 4.8    
Others (incl. DIMAR) 12.9    

So Pasok and ANEL are out and Papandreou & Co are in.

The pollster "Marc" seems to be the most accurate (I looked at the final polls ahead of the last few elections).

"Marc" currently shows SYRIZA ahead by ca. 3%

Got a link?

[Tender Branson]

Got a link?

The Wikipedia polling pages from the last few elections.

[politicus]

Got a link?

The Wikipedia polling pages from the last few elections.

The last poll listed there is all the way back from December 26-28. Hardly relevant now. Too much has happened in between.

[Zanas]

An internal for ND has been posted on electograph, here's how it goes :


Now don't try the US way of automatically assuming that ND real score is necessarily lower than how much they get in their internal. It's not really how things work in Europe. Pollsters just... poll, I don't know. Plus I haven't found the crosstabs or anything so maybe it's not a legit poll. 15% Others seem a bit much, maybe there are undecideds in there, which would explain a relatively poor XA showing. But still, this is what it would translate into in terms of seats.

Syriza   144
ND   76
XA   13
KKE   16
Potami   19
Anel   9
Pasok   10
KDS   12

Syriza's figure would climb up to 148 with Anel at 2.99% instead. The second poll where KDS is included is also the second one where they overtake Pasok. Let's see how it goes.

[Tender Branson]

Does Greece still have that 2-week ban on poll-publishing before an election ?

If yes, the last polls should be out by Sunday.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Does Greece still have that 2-week ban on poll-publishing before an election ?

If yes, the last polls should be out by Sunday.

Yes.

[politicus]

Pasok does not rule out a coalition with Syriza:

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/would-pasok-cooperate-with-syriza

“could happen on the basis that we remain in Europe and on the basis that specific actions would be taken to keep the country on a European trajectory.”

(Europe=EU from a Pasok POV)

[politicus]

Samaras links the Charlie Hebdo massacre to immigration.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/samars-seeks-to-use-charlie-hebdo-massacre-for-electoral-gain

“SYRIZA is somewhere else, it wants to give mass citizenship insurance and social security to illegal immigrants. You see what is happening today in Europe, everything is changing in a dramatic way. In France the socialist Hollande brought the military out in the streets. Today in Paris there was a slaughter and here some people are inviting more illegal immigrants and giving out citizenship"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Samaras links the Charlie Hebdo massacre to immigration.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/samars-seeks-to-use-charlie-hebdo-massacre-for-electoral-gain

“SYRIZA is somewhere else, it wants to give mass citizenship insurance and social security to illegal immigrants. You see what is happening today in Europe, everything is changing in a dramatic way. In France the socialist Hollande brought the military out in the streets. Today in Paris there was a slaughter and here some people are inviting more illegal immigrants and giving out citizenship"

Disgusting. Hopefully this clown will get his deserved thrashing.

[Zanas]

Four polls out today ! And the "Pro Olympic Circles" poll mentioned earlier showing KDS above Pasok has disappeared from the wiki page... So has the second poll with KDS above. I don't know who modifies the page, but it's a bit weird. Still, I've just averaged the four polls into this :

Syriza   34.4 (147)
ND   31 (87)
Potami   6.5 (18)
XA   6.2 (17)
KKE   5.7 (16)
Pasok   5.3 (15)
KDS   2.9 (0)
Anel   2.8 (0)
Others   5.2

So Pasok seems to be keeping their last voters after all, and it looks like Papandreou could well not make it. Also the gap between Syriza and ND has closed a bit.

[Famous Mortimer]

Four polls out today ! And the "Pro Olympic Circles" poll mentioned earlier showing KDS above Pasok has disappeared from the wiki page... So has the second poll with KDS above. I don't know who modifies the page, but it's a bit weird. Still, I've just averaged the four polls into this :

Syriza   34.4 (147)
ND   31 (87)
Potami   6.5 (18)
XA   6.2 (17)
KKE   5.7 (16)
Pasok   5.3 (15)
KDS   2.9 (0)
Anel   2.8 (0)
Others   5.2

So Pasok seems to be keeping their last voters after all, and it looks like Papandreou could well not make it. Also the gap between Syriza and ND has closed a bit.

Honestly I'm not surprised. The only people still voting for PASOK are people who vote out of habit.

[justfollowingtheelections]

PASOK Minister of Culture Angela Gerekou has joined ND.  PASOK leader Venizelos wrote a letter to Samaras describing the act as "immoral".  Independent MP (former PASOK and DIMAR) Vasilis Economou, who voted for Dimas has also joined ND.

http://en.protothema.gr/venizelos-slams-pm-samaras-for-partaking-in-the-immoral-act-of-deputys-transfer-to-nd/

In the meantime, the Ecologists-Greens (they had won a seat in the EU Parliament in 2009) have officially joined SYRIZA as they announced on their website (link in Greek: http://www.ecogreens-gr.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5667:2015-01-07-17-16-07&catid=155:ekloges-2015&Itemid=115).  They will have 23 candidates on the ballots.  

Also, something that will probably have a significant effect on the results: Those born in 1997 will not be able to vote since there isn't enough time for them to register.  SYRIZA and KKE have challenged the decision, but there isn't much they can do.
According to newspaper Kathimerini:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thepressproject.net/article/71001/100-thousand-18-year-olds-will-not-be-able-to-vote-in-the-elections

ETA: Another news item that I thought might interest you: 300 academics from around the world have signed a petition where they express their support for SYRIZA and request that Greek people are allowed to vote freely without any outside pressure or influences.  The list of signees includes people such as Noam Chomsky, Slavoj Zizek and Antonio Negri.
http://en.protothema.gr/worlds-greatest-intellectuals-declare-support-to-greeks/

[EPG]

300 academics from around the world have signed a petition where they express their support for SYRIZA and request that Greek people are allowed to vote freely without any outside pressure or influences.

Logically, if they want no outside influences, they must be conceding that they themselves are totally uninfluential. In which case, why bother writing a letter?

[warandwar]

300 academics from around the world have signed a petition where they express their support for SYRIZA and request that Greek people are allowed to vote freely without any outside pressure or influences.

Logically, if they want no outside influences, they must be conceding that they themselves are totally uninfluential. In which case, why bother writing a letter?

I read the letter as being more about what happens after the election, with the "right of the Greek people to make their decisions freely" referring to letting SYRIZA achieve the restructuring it wants. It says "At the same time, if Syriza is voted into power, its government will need massive support from the people of Europe in the face of the pressures from the financial markets and political forces which fear any departure from the obsolete framework of capitalist globalisation."

[justfollowingtheelections]

300 academics from around the world have signed a petition where they express their support for SYRIZA and request that Greek people are allowed to vote freely without any outside pressure or influences.

Logically, if they want no outside influences, they must be conceding that they themselves are totally uninfluential. In which case, why bother writing a letter?

They are obviously referring to the veiled (or in some cases very direct) threats by EU and German officials of Greece exiting the Eurozone if SYRIZA is elected.  And I couldn't agree more with them.  If Greece is still an independent country they should be allowed to vote for whoever is best for them, not for Merkel or Germany.

[EPG]

300 academics from around the world have signed a petition where they express their support for SYRIZA and request that Greek people are allowed to vote freely without any outside pressure or influences.

Logically, if they want no outside influences, they must be conceding that they themselves are totally uninfluential. In which case, why bother writing a letter?

They are obviously referring to the veiled (or in some cases very direct) threats by EU and German officials of Greece exiting the Eurozone if SYRIZA is elected.  And I couldn't agree more with them.  If Greece is still an independent country they should be allowed to vote for whoever is best for them, not for Merkel or Germany.

Of course they are "allowed" - as if Germany can "allow" or "not allow" foreigners to have elections! - but these people are engaged in a huge misprision of sovereignty, which seems to break down logically as:
1. Greeks can elect whomever they like and are sovereign, therefore
2. It would be a violation of Greek sovereignty to disagree in any way with its elected government in negotiations.
But you could easily apply the same logic to Angela Merkel. Odd that Chomsky doesn't see it that way!

[justfollowingtheelections]

2. It would be a violation of Greek sovereignty to disagree in any way with its elected government in negotiations.

Don't make sh**t up please.  Nowhere in the appeal does it say that.

[Beezer]

They are obviously referring to the veiled (or in some cases very direct) threats by EU and German officials of Greece exiting the Eurozone if SYRIZA is elected.  And I couldn't agree more with them.  If Greece is still an independent country they should be allowed to vote for whoever is best for them, not for Merkel or Germany.

Well, Germany and the rest of the eurozone share a currency with Greece and a number of countries have invested a lot of money in ensuring the prevention of a complete Greek default (i.e. a complete restructuring of the debt would have serious consequences for Germany's balance sheet as well). So it's perfectly natural and normal for these leaders to have a position on what is transpiring in Greece. Moreover, it's sensible to remind the Greek electorate that Syriza's plans (debt write offs + ECB QE to fund Syriza's budgetary vision) won't come to fruition.

[EPG]

2. It would be a violation of Greek sovereignty to disagree in any way with its elected government in negotiations.

Don't make sh**t up please.  Nowhere in the appeal does it say that.

Good thing I didn't say they said that, right? But it's patently obvious that this is the petty logical fallacy leading them to jump to the defence of Greece's democratic right to whatever it wants in negotiations, but not Germany's

[morgieb]

Samaras links the Charlie Hebdo massacre to immigration.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/samars-seeks-to-use-charlie-hebdo-massacre-for-electoral-gain

“SYRIZA is somewhere else, it wants to give mass citizenship insurance and social security to illegal immigrants. You see what is happening today in Europe, everything is changing in a dramatic way. In France the socialist Hollande brought the military out in the streets. Today in Paris there was a slaughter and here some people are inviting more illegal immigrants and giving out citizenship"

Sounds like something Golden Dawn would say.