Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

and Social Agreement is officially running with SYRIZA.

[Tender Branson]

Does Greece still have that 2-week ban on poll-publishing before an election ?

If yes, the last polls should be out by Sunday.

Yes.

But we are now within that 2-week period and the Univ. of Macedonia just released a poll that was done until yesterday ...

(I'm not sure what "Macedonia" means here: The Greek region of Macedonia or a university that is based in the country Macedonia).

[politicus]

Does Greece still have that 2-week ban on poll-publishing before an election ?

If yes, the last polls should be out by Sunday.

Yes.

But we are now within that 2-week period and the Univ. of Macedonia just released a poll that was done until yesterday ...

(I'm not sure what "Macedonia" means here: The Greek region of Macedonia or a university that is based in the country Macedonia).

It is in Thessaloniki

[Tender Branson]

Does Greece still have that 2-week ban on poll-publishing before an election ?

If yes, the last polls should be out by Sunday.

Yes.

But we are now within that 2-week period and the Univ. of Macedonia just released a poll that was done until yesterday ...

(I'm not sure what "Macedonia" means here: The Greek region of Macedonia or a university that is based in the country Macedonia).

It is in Thessaloniki

Ah, thx. So what happens to them, now that they published a poll during the "ban time" ?

Fine ?

Or is that another Greek thing that ends up non-enforced (like mandatory voting) ?

[politicus]

Polls are now allowed until the last Friday before the election:

http://greeceoutsidein.blogspot.dk/2014/02/election-polls-ban-lifted-because-of.html

Minister of the Interior in radio interview:

"The publication of opinion polls will be allowed until the last Friday before the elections. The same will apply to the elections’ second round. When it was decided to ban the publication of opinion polls, the Internet did not have the momentum it does now"

Also mentioned in:

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_22/05/2014_539936

[politicus]

One interesting fact from the Univ. of Macedonia poll is that Tsirapas leads Samaras on ‘Who is most capable of handling the economic crisis’

Antonis Samaras 35% 
Alexis Tsirapas 38.5%


Preferred government:

Grand coalition 31%

SYRIZA led coalition government 18.5%
SYRIZA to win an outright majority 18%

New Democracy led coalition 14.0%
New Democracy to win an outright majority 10.5%

[Famous Mortimer]

Grand coalition people are the worse than people who want a Golden Dawn government.

[politicus]

The UoMac poll (rounded to half percentage points)

SYRIZA 31.5% 
ND 27%

Both parties gaining 2% from last poll, so the polarization continues.

Potami 6.5%
Golden Dawn 6%
KKE 6%

PASOK 3%
ANEL 3%
MDS 2%

[Insula Dei]

How's SYRIZA supposed to form a coalition if both Papandreou and PASOK fail to get in? Potami?

Though I guess that in most scenarios where that happens, SYRIZA will be hovering on the edge of a majority anyway.

[politicus]

How's SYRIZA supposed to form a coalition if both Papandreou and PASOK fail to get in? Potami?

Though I guess that in most scenarios where that happens, SYRIZA will be hovering on the edge of a majority anyway.

SYRIZA-Potami seems like the most obvius solution even if Pasok gets in. Less bad blood between them. Pasok has just backtracked on their pro-coalition statements.

Former Minister of Health Andreas Loverdos:

“With all that SYRIZA says today and with the positions it supports, I don’t see any room for cooperation”

“If after the elections there is whatever result or whatever agreement for cooperation, it will be achieved on the basis of specific conditions which will have been fully publicized. We do not come to secret and sly agreements”

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't see how SYRIZA and The River can form a government after The River took on all those neo-liberals.

I think we need to start thinking about what happens if there's a hung parliament.

SYRIZA landslide in new election? ND squeaker in new election? No winner in new election either? 3rd election? Grand coalition? Coup? Revolution?

It's entirely possible this comment will look ridiculous in two weeks but I really think all possibilities are on the table at this point.

If there's no workable majority after this election, it will basically be the objective failure of electoral democracy. There's no precedent for what happens next.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A Syriza-ND grand coalition would be hilarious.

[politicus]

A Syriza-ND grand coalition would be hilarious.

It is safe to say Greece is one of the countries where this will not happen.

[warandwar]

If there's no workable majority after this election, it will basically be the objective failure of electoral democracy. There's no precedent for what happens next.

You mean besides the May 2012 Greek election?

[Bacon King]

I don't see how SYRIZA and The River can form a government after The River took on all those neo-liberals.

I think we need to start thinking about what happens if there's a hung parliament.

SYRIZA landslide in new election? ND squeaker in new election? No winner in new election either? 3rd election? Grand coalition? Coup? Revolution?

It's entirely possible this comment will look ridiculous in two weeks but I really think all possibilities are on the table at this point.

If there's no workable majority after this election, it will basically be the objective failure of electoral democracy. There's no precedent for what happens next.

Do you have any idea what you are talking about

I'm sorry to be rudw but the question needed to be askes

[Famous Mortimer]

Go ahead and set me straight by answering the question.

[politicus]

Tsipras now rules out cooperating with both Pasok, Potami and MDS and says he prefer to rely on support from KKE if Syriza doesn't get a majority. He doesn't rule out DIMAR if they get in.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/tsipras-rules-out-alliances-with-pasok-the-river

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Tsirapas now rules out cooperating with both Pasok, Potami and MDS and says he prefer to rely on support from KKE if Syriza doesn't get a majority.

LOL, has he checked that with KKE?

[politicus]

Tsirapas now rules out cooperating with both Pasok, Potami and MDS and says he prefer to rely on support from KKE if Syriza doesn't get a majority.

LOL, has he checked that with KKE?

I see it as an attempt to blackmail centre-left voters into voting for Syriza. Vote for us or else... Might be a risky strategy.

Both the big parties are trying to put maximum pressure on moderate voters to give them a majority or risk all sorts of terrible things (chaos, collapse, socialism, Golden Dawn influence etc.).

The logic in this case is, that if you are a moderate centre-left voter a Syriza majority government (that will likely moderate considerably when they get into office) is preferable to getting a KKE backed Syriza government pursuing a radical agenda while your centrist party sits powerless on the sideline.

[jaichind]

Tsirapas now rules out cooperating with both Pasok, Potami and MDS and says he prefer to rely on support from KKE if Syriza doesn't get a majority.

LOL, has he checked that with KKE?

I had the same reaction.  It always struck me that KKE is being to sectarian by not willing to back Syriza given their similar ideological outlook on policy.  Perhaps KKE is afraid that its vote base will be swallowed by Syriza if they ally with it ?

[politicus]

Tsipras now rules out cooperating with both Pasok, Potami and MDS and says he prefer to rely on support from KKE if Syriza doesn't get a majority.

LOL, has he checked that with KKE?

I had the same reaction.  It always struck me that KKE is being to sectarian by not willing to back Syriza given their similar ideological outlook on policy.  Perhaps KKE is afraid that its vote base will be swallowed by Syriza if they ally with it ?

Being sectarian is the entire purpose of KKE and they see Syriza as traitors to the working class and a bourgeois party.

The KKE/Syriza relationship has been thouroughly discussed in the Greece General thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166069.0

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

KKE do loathe Syriza, but I wonder if they will offer supply and confidence votes.

The other worry, of course, is that a President still needs to be picked with a supermajority. Will the left have enough votes to support a Syriza nominee?

[politicus]

KKE do loathe Syriza, but I wonder if they will offer supply and confidence votes.

The other worry, of course, is that a President still needs to be picked with a supermajority. Will the left have enough votes to support a Syriza nominee?

The President has very little power. Nominating a centrist or a non-political figure should be unproblematic if Syriza wins.

DIMAR leader Fotis Kouvelis was mentioned as a possible compromise candidate before the recent election and might be a good compromise candidate again. Even if Syriza and DIMAR could not agree on a joint list they seem to be on good terms now.

Polls indicate ND + XA + ANEL (if they get in) would get around 100. Leaving 200 centre-left + left. Syriza gets around 142-145, Potami 22-25, Pasok 12+, KKE 16-18.

Syriza, Pasok and Potami would likely be able to elect a president and there is no reason to think KKE would block a Syriza nominated candidate.

A Syriza win with min. 120 seats to ND/XA, or even ND/XA/ANEL, is a very unlikely scenario.

[EPG]

KKE and SYRIZA do have a reasonably significant policy difference over continued membership of the euro. I am normally delighted to revel in pointless sectarianism among the far left. But in this case it seems like euro membership is a really important question for Greece to answer.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The official list of parties that will participate in the election:

New Democracy (ND)
            
SYRIZA – KOISY – Ecologist Greens (OP) – Society First (HKP): KOISY is Social Agreement.  Society First is a small party created by former PASOK and DIMAR members.

Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) – Olive Tree (DPP)
         
Independent Greeks (ANEL)- National Patriotic Alliance - Agricultural Farming Party of Greece - Lefko - Fireburnt Greece - Christian democratic Party of Greece: Lefko, which means blank is a semi-joke party, Fireburnt Greece is a one-man party led by a leftist writer while the Christian Democratic party is also a one-man party led by a former ND MP.
               
Golden Dawn (XA)
   
Greens (Prasinoi) – Democratic Left (DIMAR)

Communist Party of Greece (KKE)

Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS)

To Potami – Drasi: Drasi is a liberal party.
 
ANTARSYA – Left Front Coalition (MARS): A party to the left of SYRIZA that will try to appeal to left-wing voters who feel SYRIZA is becoming too centrist.

Union of Centrists (EK): A one-man party led by a tv persona who is known for attacking both PASOK and ND during the '90s.

Marxist–Leninist Communist Parties of Greece (KKE (m-l) – M-L KKE): Maiost parties
               
Organisation of Internationalist Communists of Greece (OKDE): Trotskyist party
            
Workers' Revolutionary Party (EEK): Another Trotskyist party.

Teleia (Apostolos Gkletsos)   : Another one man party led by a former actor, currently mayor of Stylida, a small town in Central Greece.  He was endorsed by KKE when he first ran for mayor but he's more centrist now.

Movement of Democratic Socialists (KIDISO): Papandreou.

Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece (PAEKE): Joke party

National Resistance Movement (KEAN)               
Democratic National Reform Union               
Groundbreaking Orthodox Solidarity Front (ROMA)               
Greek Popular Democratic Liberation (ELLADA)