Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Bacon King]

WOW at PASOK in 5th in Crete

[politicus]

SYRIZA widens their lead in the last polls we are going to get, but the picture is otherwise a bit blurred. The numbers for undecideds, blanks and abstaining are also all over the place.

Newest polls:

GPO:

SYRIZA – 32.5%
New Democracy – 26.5%
Potami – 5.8%
KKE – 5.0%
Golden Dawn – 5.0%
PASOK – 4.4%
ANEL – 3.4%
Movement of Democrats Socialists – 3%
LAOS – 1.4%
Greens/Democratic Left – 1.0%
Others – 1.6%
Blank/abstain – 0.4%
Undecided – 10.0%

Metron Analysis:

SYRIZA – 29.6%
New Democracy – 25.2%
Potami – 5.9%
Golden Dawn – 4.4%
KKE – 4%
ANEL – 3.5%
PASOK – 3.3%
Movement of Democrats Socialists – 1.4%
LAOS – 1.0%
Others – 3.9%
Blank/Abstain – 9.3%
Undecided – 8.1%

Rass:

SYRIZA – 31.3%
New Democracy – 26.5%
Potami – 6.4%
KKE – 5.4%
Golden Dawn – 5.1%
PASOK – 4.3%
ANEL – 3.8%
Movement of Democrats Socialists – 2.5%
Others – 5.5%
Blank/abstain – 1%
Undecided – 8.2%

Palmos Analysis shows SYRIZA gaining a 9.9 point lead, while Golden Dawn is in third place over Potami!

SYRIZA – 30.2%
New Democracy – 20.3%
Golden Dawn – 6.8%
Potami – 5.1%
KKE – 4.3%
PASOK – 3.4%
ANEL – 2.2%
MDS – 1.7%
LAOS – 1.3%
Others – 4.5%
Blank/abstain – 5.1%
Undecided – 15.2%

[Velasco]

First we take Athens, then we'll take Madrid: Alexis Tsipras and Podemos' secretary general Pablo Iglesias at Syriza rally yesterday.

Tsipras asked for "a clear mandate to change Greece", whereas Iglesias stressed that "a wind of change is blowing in Europe; the name of change in Greece is SYRIZA and the name of change in Spain will be Podemos".

[jaichind]

My prediction

SYRIZA    36.3
ND           29.6
River          6.5
KKE           5.6
XA             5.6
PASOK       4.9
ANEL         3.8

[politicus]

Some Greek pollsters think Golden Dawn is underpolling again.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/from-prison-greeces-golden-dawn-runs-quiet-but-vitriolic-campaign

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please get their name right. It isn't 'Golden Dawn' it is 'Golden Shower'.

[politicus]

Please get their name right. It isn't 'Golden Dawn' it is 'Golden Shower'.

Thanks for enlightning us.

[Хahar 🤔]

Seat allocations for the four posted polls:

Συ.Ριζ.Α.	145	148	145	158
Ν.Δ.	77	83	80	73
Ποτάμι	17	19	19	18
K.K.E.	15	13	16	15
Χ.Α.	14	14	15	24
Πα.Σο.Κ.	13	11	13	12
Αν.Έλ.	10	12	12
Κί.Δη.Σο.	9

[Landslide Lyndon]

A fitting ending to the political career of an ulntra-conservative charlatan.

[Keystone Phil]

Samaras will be re-elected.

[politicus]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Buy Greek stocks if you really believe that.

I did at first, but nothing points that way and given that ND has gone right and Syriza has gone towards the center I just don't see it happening.

[jaichind]

When do polls close and any links to results as they come in ?

[justfollowingtheelections]

When do polls close and any links to results as they come in ?

Results will be posted here.

[Boston Bread]

Crete has always been the most left-wing area in Greece, so the results aren't really that surprising, but it's still interesting that 5 of the top 6 parties lean to the left (I'm not sure how true that is of Potami, but they're certainly the most left-wing party on social issues).  Even ANTARSYA is doing really well.

Not really surprising. The right has ND. But who's next in line? GD? ANEL? The already-dead LAOS? While the centre-left to far-left have a lot of options.

[Tender Branson]

When do polls close and any links to results as they come in ?

From what I remember, Greek polling stations open at 6am and close at 6pm.

[Niemeyerite]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Thanks for the ammunition.

[Keystone Phil]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Thanks for the ammunition.

LOL OMG I KNO RITE?!? REMEMBER! THOSE TIMES...!

[Bacon King]

When do polls close and any links to results as they come in ?

Polls close "at sunset" but municipalities typically round the time to the nearest hour

[politicus]

The polls published Friday, that did not include data from before the 21th:
    
                               ND    Syriza  Pasok ANEL XA    KKE Potami MDS  Others  Lead      
23 Jan    GPO            29.6   37.0     5.5   3.9    5.6    5.4     5.5       3.2  4.3      7.4
23 Jan    MRB            30.0   35.9     4.6   3.7    6.3     5.2     7.5       2.8  4.0      5.9
22–23  Interview     28.1   34.4     4.5   2.5    6.3     4.5     5.7       1.8  11.3    6.3
22–23  Kapa R.        32.3   35.5     5.3   2.9    6.1    5.0     5.5      2.8   4.6      3.2
21–23  PAMAK          28.5   36.0    5.5    4.0    6.5     6.0     7.5      1.5   4.0      7.5
21–23  Alco             30.0   37.6    5.1   4.1    6.2     4.2     6.2      2.6   2.9      7.6
21–23  Palmos          25.5   36.5    4.5   4.0    6.5     6.0     7.5    "-"    9.5     11.0

[rob in cal]

Has there been much discussion during the campaign about Syriza's political reform ideas?  I saw in their platform that they want proportional representation, by which I'm guessing that they want to abolish the bonus seat provision?  Also, the platform says they support direct democracy.  Do they want to allow something like in Switzerland or many US states where we have initiative and referendum?

[Bacon King]

Has there been much discussion during the campaign about Syriza's political reform ideas?  I saw in their platform that they want proportional representation, by which I'm guessing that they want to abolish the bonus seat provision?  Also, the platform says they support direct democracy.  Do they want to allow something like in Switzerland or many US states where we have initiative and referendum?

They also probably want to remove the local equivalent to the bonus seat provision (the list that wins the 2nd round is guaranteed at least 60% of the seats on the council no matter how the vote was split in the 1st round).

Regarding direct democracy, SYRIZA's 2014 policy specifically lists "people’s legislative initiative, people’s veto and people’s initiative to call a referendum"

[Bacon King]

per GPO, how support has moved between parties (I assume since Euro 2014; my Greek is terrible, I'm just assuming b/c Potami is included)

[Tender Branson]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Phil, I seriously doubt that.

The chances right now that SYRIZA wins in a landslide (8%+ or 10%+) tomorrow are higher than ND winning.

[Niemeyerite]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Phil, I seriously doubt that.

The chances right now that SYRIZA wins in a landslide (8%+ or 10%+) tomorrow are higher than ND winning.

But... Just 3 days ago you predicted a ND win!

[Zinneke]

It will be closer than a Syriza landslide because undecided voters are most likely going to vote ND.