Greek election - January 25th 2015
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  Greek election - January 25th 2015
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Author Topic: Greek election - January 25th 2015  (Read 93411 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #425 on: January 25, 2015, 02:53:19 PM »

A minority government only works if at least one of the parties agrees to vote with SYRIZA on confidence motions though, right?
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #426 on: January 25, 2015, 02:56:26 PM »


Please do elaborate on how past Greek governments created a sound footing for the country's economy.

Beezer this is a very complicated issue, but I do agree with SYRIZA that without a stimulus plan that will aim at developing new industries, Greece will never be able to increase its productivity and the debt will always be an issue.  Also the fact that austerity measures have affected the lower and middle income class who are not responsible for the situation the country is in, while the oligarchs who are the true tax evaders are doing just fine, tells us that something was wrong with the current system.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #427 on: January 25, 2015, 02:56:48 PM »

The Independent Greeks seem to be the least terrible potential coalition partner for SYRIZA.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #428 on: January 25, 2015, 02:57:25 PM »

A minority government only works if at least one of the parties agrees to vote with SYRIZA on confidence motions though, right?

I can't imagine KKE, for example, would be overly eager to bring down a Syriza government. If Syriza is at 148ish seats, they'd just have to limit defections to a minimum and they'd be fine for the first few weeks to months, I'd say.
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politicus
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« Reply #429 on: January 25, 2015, 02:58:10 PM »

A minority government only works if at least one of the parties agrees to vote with SYRIZA on confidence motions though, right?

Or abstain. I doubt KKE would vote against them in a vote of confidence.
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Barnes
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« Reply #430 on: January 25, 2015, 02:59:12 PM »

A minority government only works if at least one of the parties agrees to vote with SYRIZA on confidence motions though, right?

Or abstain.

Abstentions would be the most likely option, at least a the beginning, I feel.
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politicus
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« Reply #431 on: January 25, 2015, 02:59:57 PM »

148 now.
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Meeker
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« Reply #432 on: January 25, 2015, 03:01:51 PM »

A minority government only works if at least one of the parties agrees to vote with SYRIZA on confidence motions though, right?

Or abstain.

Hmm, interesting. I guess it's not really in any party's interest to have another election soon. Voters might rally to SYRIZA.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #433 on: January 25, 2015, 03:03:19 PM »

The Independent Greeks seem to be the least terrible potential coalition partner for SYRIZA.

There's also Potami and maybe even PASOK.  By the way, the Centrists are beating PASOK in Thessaloniki A.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #434 on: January 25, 2015, 03:03:33 PM »


Phil, I seriously doubt that.

The chances right now that SYRIZA wins in a landslide (8%+ or 10%+) tomorrow are higher than ND winning.

Phil is trolling of course. Even the most die-hard fans of ND accepted their fate a week ago.
The real question is whether SYRIZA will obtain an absolute majority of seats or not.

Well he did predict that Santorum would win in 2006 so this could just be the Greek version.

LOL YA REMEMBER THAT?! LOL IT WAS WRONG! HA
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #435 on: January 25, 2015, 03:04:45 PM »

The Independent Greeks seem to be the least terrible potential coalition partner for SYRIZA.

There's also Potami and maybe even PASOK.  By the way, the Centrists are beating PASOK in Thessaloniki A.

Tsirpas has declared that he wouldn't be in coalition with either of them (although that obviously can change) and Independent Greeks have better anti-austerity credentials
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #436 on: January 25, 2015, 03:07:58 PM »

I generally believe that KKE are more genuine in their very old stance to never work with the bourgeois traitors in SYRIZA, than SYRIZA is genuine in their very recent stance to not work with To Potami. The idea that KKE would abstain to help SYRIZA survive requires that you think KKE actually wants to take responsibility in making the country operate... which is not how KKE works.

SYRIZA has an interest in getting a stable majority however, so that they are not throttled at their first unpopular decision, and a coalition is the only way to accomplish that if they don't crawl above 150 when everything is said and counted. 
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politicus
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« Reply #437 on: January 25, 2015, 03:11:11 PM »

Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.
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Zanas
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« Reply #438 on: January 25, 2015, 03:13:50 PM »

I think that at 149 or 150, which seems growingly likely, they'll take their chance alone. KKE might not abstain, they also might, but Potami could abstain in order to seem serious and responsible.
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Meeker
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« Reply #439 on: January 25, 2015, 03:21:12 PM »

I would think KKE would have quite a bit at risk if they were perceived to be the ones who brought down the most leftist government in modern Greek history. I know their remaining membership is extremely ideological/brainwashed, but they don't need that many defectors to risk falling below the threshold.
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politicus
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« Reply #440 on: January 25, 2015, 03:23:20 PM »

There is also the possibility of luring a couple of defectors to Syriza and who says Pasok would risk another election. It would be a huge gamble.
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Meeker
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« Reply #441 on: January 25, 2015, 03:25:45 PM »

There is also the possibility of luring a couple of defectors to Syriza and who says Pasok would risk another election. It would be a huge gamble.

Good point. Though it's hard for me to judge who is more partisan - KKE supporters, or those still voting for PASOK at this point...
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Barnes
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« Reply #442 on: January 25, 2015, 03:28:18 PM »

There is also the possibility of luring a couple of defectors to Syriza and who says Pasok would risk another election. It would be a huge gamble.

Good point. Though it's hard for me to judge who is more partisan - KKE supporters, or those still voting for PASOK at this point...

Yeah, I don't quite know why most of those PASOK voters are hanging on. 

I think that if SYRIZA is this close to an outright majority, they'll be very favorably placed to holding on to power for at least the short term.
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jeron
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« Reply #443 on: January 25, 2015, 03:29:40 PM »

There is also the possibility of luring a couple of defectors to Syriza and who says Pasok would risk another election. It would be a huge gamble.

I don't think Pasok would do that immediately. But why would they support a party which didn't want to govern with them? After a while I think they'll be tempted to reject most proposals by a minority Syriza government.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #444 on: January 25, 2015, 03:32:45 PM »

There is also the possibility of luring a couple of defectors to Syriza and who says Pasok would risk another election. It would be a huge gamble.

I don't think Pasok would do that immediately. But why would they support a party which didn't want to govern with them? After a while I think they'll be tempted to reject most proposals by a minority Syriza government.

I would bet on defections for PASOK MPs, rather than support from PASOK. Some people who were there for the perks of power won't be interested by staying in the rumbles of the party.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #445 on: January 25, 2015, 03:36:08 PM »

Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise. I'm sure a SYRIZA minority government would be fine for a few months, but what happens once they have to push their first controversial vote through parliament, or if a few MPs desert? If Tsipras wants to survive as PM, and actually accomplish something of value, he needs a coalition partner, and KKE isn't it. It is just a simple reality, and an election promise can't change that.  
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VPH
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« Reply #446 on: January 25, 2015, 03:39:17 PM »


Please do elaborate on how past Greek governments created a sound footing for the country's economy.

Beezer this is a very complicated issue, but I do agree with SYRIZA that without a stimulus plan that will aim at developing new industries, Greece will never be able to increase its productivity and the debt will always be an issue.  Also the fact that austerity measures have affected the lower and middle income class who are not responsible for the situation the country is in, while the oligarchs who are the true tax evaders are doing just fine, tells us that something was wrong with the current system.
This is the truth right here. Although I support Syriza, I am quite split on EU membership.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #447 on: January 25, 2015, 03:41:48 PM »

Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise. I'm sure a SYRIZA minority government would be fine for a few months, but what happens once they have to push their first controversial vote through parliament, or if a few MPs desert? If Tsipras wants to survive as PM, and actually accomplish something of value, he needs a coalition partner, and KKE isn't it. It is just a simple reality, and an election promise can't change that.  
I believe that many of KKE voters are ones of who want KKE not to be irrational opponent of Tsipras, but a left-wing check on his policies.
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« Reply #448 on: January 25, 2015, 03:46:54 PM »

I always feel bad when I see politicians on their way out:



European politicians across the spectrum are poking their opinion in the election results.
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ingemann
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« Reply #449 on: January 25, 2015, 03:48:45 PM »


Please do elaborate on how past Greek governments created a sound footing for the country's economy.

Beezer this is a very complicated issue, but I do agree with SYRIZA that without a stimulus plan that will aim at developing new industries, Greece will never be able to increase its productivity and the debt will always be an issue.  Also the fact that austerity measures have affected the lower and middle income class who are not responsible for the situation the country is in, while the oligarchs who are the true tax evaders are doing just fine, tells us that something was wrong with the current system.

While there's some truth to that, the problem here is that while the process Greece have been through have been and still is painful, they have really gotten a good deal from the rest of EU nad IMF (ask Argentina whether they wanted what Greece got instead of what they got), also you can not increase productivity without hurting people, and when it was as low as the Greek one, it hurts a lot of people. You usual increase productivity by lowering wages, increase the labour supply and lower taxes (impossible in the Greek case). The first two is more or less what Greece have done, while they had to raise taxes because... well people know the story, and I don't really feel like finding the numbers for the real tax percent once more.
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