Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Zanas]

When it comes to reducing unemployment, new spending is justified. With 26% unemployment a large chunk of what should be their tax base is missing. In the long-term spending to boost private sector employment now reduces the debt in the long-term. The previous government hasn't done nearly enough to address that. SYRIZA is generally more trusted when it comes to addressing tax evasion and corruption than the traditional parties. They promise higher taxes and military cuts too so they're not promising money for jobs out of thin air.
Now, I'm not going to defend SYRIZA's platform because it goes further than what I want, but I'm supporting them as an agent of change.

Okay how will you spend the money to increase productivity?

With the current state of the environment, why would anyone want to do that ?

[Meeker]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

The Supreme Court analogy doesn't hold up - members of the court don't need to be responsive to voters, their party leaders, or anyone, to keep their power.

Insula Dei's point is fair though.

It has nothing to do with the length of terms. We're talking about voting power. The influence of your vote does not change based on if you are a "swing voter."

Sure it does. An individual member of the majority party with a one seat majority has significantly more leverage to demand things than an individual member of the majority party with a 50 seat majority. He/she cannot be easily ignored in the former case but can be very easily ignored in the latter.

The same standard could be applied to the Supreme Court. If four justices want to issue an opinion but need to make concessions in it to get that fifth justice on board, that fifth justice has considerable power. But he'd have virtually none if six justices were already on board with the opinion.

[Boston Bread]

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Do what exactly?

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Whichever type of stimulus is the most effective at reducing unemployment, really. I don't have a platform of my own.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's interesting to see that Muslims have finally moved from PASOK to SYRIZA. SYRIZA's best performance in the country is in Rhodope, where ND won and PASOK finished in second place in June 2012; now the SYRIZA vote has risen from 19.75% to 49.36%, the ND vote has gone from 27.28% to 19.99%, and the PASOK vote has fallen from 20.54% to 3.27%.

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Do what exactly?

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Whichever type of stimulus is the most effective at reducing unemployment, really. I don't have a platform of my own.

None of this discussion is particularly germane to an election thread. I suggest politely that all of you take it to the Economics board.

[Famous Mortimer]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

The Supreme Court analogy doesn't hold up - members of the court don't need to be responsive to voters, their party leaders, or anyone, to keep their power.

Insula Dei's point is fair though.

It has nothing to do with the length of terms. We're talking about voting power. The influence of your vote does not change based on if you are a "swing voter."

Sure it does. An individual member of the majority party with a one seat majority has significantly more leverage to demand things than an individual member of the majority party with a 50 seat majority. He/she cannot be easily ignored in the former case but can be very easily ignored in the latter.

The same standard could be applied to the Supreme Court. If four justices want to issue an opinion but need to make concessions in it to get that fifth justice on board, that fifth justice has considerable power. But he'd have virtually none if six justices were already on board with the opinion.

The four justices who have "decided" can change their vote at any time. So they have just as much power as the swing voter.

[jaichind]

It's interesting to see that Muslims have finally moved from PASOK to SYRIZA. SYRIZA's best performance in the country is in Rhodope, where ND won and PASOK finished in second place in June 2012; now the SYRIZA vote has risen from 19.75% to 49.36%, the ND vote has gone from 27.28% to 19.99%, and the PASOK vote has fallen from 20.54% to 3.27%.

Are you sure that is what took place ? DIMAR in June 2012 got 17.8% in Rhodope and now is nothing.  In my view most of PASOK vote went to River which now has around 13% of the vote and pretty much all of DIMAR/Greens from June 2012 went to SYRIZA.  And yes, there is for sure a swing from ND and ANEL to SYRIZA as well.  

[Boston Bread]

Any reason why Samou island is so crazy for KKE? Over 15%.

[ingemann]

When it comes to reducing unemployment, new spending is justified. With 26% unemployment a large chunk of what should be their tax base is missing. In the long-term spending to boost private sector employment now reduces the debt in the long-term. The previous government hasn't done nearly enough to address that. SYRIZA is generally more trusted when it comes to addressing tax evasion and corruption than the traditional parties. They promise higher taxes and military cuts too so they're not promising money for jobs out of thin air.
Now, I'm not going to defend SYRIZA's platform because it goes further than what I want, but I'm supporting them as an agent of change.

Okay how will you spend the money to increase productivity?

With the current state of the environment, why would anyone want to do that ?

Because he said that Greece needed to use money to increase productivity, so wanted to know how he would do this.

[ingemann]

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Do what exactly?

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Whichever type of stimulus is the most effective at reducing unemployment, really. I don't have a platform of my own.

Sarcasm: So you suggest death camps for the unemployed?

[Хahar 🤔]

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Do what exactly?

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Whichever type of stimulus is the most effective at reducing unemployment, really. I don't have a platform of my own.

Sarcasm: So you suggest death camps for the unemployed?

Please move this to a different board. This does not directly concern the Greek election.

[jaichind]

ANEL just overtook PASOK.

[ObserverIE]

Any reason why Samou island is so crazy for KKE? Over 15%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icaria

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[justfollowingtheelections]

Samos is also home to a big university and that's another reason why they are more left wing.

The Muslim minority usually votes for popular candidates, not parties.  Potami is doing really well in Rodopi as well and I'm guessing both them and SYRIZA have a popular candidate.

By the way both ANEL and Potami leaders have expressed their willingness to work with SYRIZA, but not with each other.  So SYRIZA will have to choose between the two.

[Meeker]

Tsipras may prefer 149/150 over 151/152. With the latter you give significant power to individual members of your party who are willing to make demands...

That's just as much the was in a minority government situation as with a 1 or 2-seat majority, tho.

Yeah, no offense to the OP but that's a dumb argument. That's like when people claim Anthony Kennedy is somehow more powerful than all the other Supreme Court judges. No, everyone's vote is going to be worth the same no matter what.

The Supreme Court analogy doesn't hold up - members of the court don't need to be responsive to voters, their party leaders, or anyone, to keep their power.

Insula Dei's point is fair though.

It has nothing to do with the length of terms. We're talking about voting power. The influence of your vote does not change based on if you are a "swing voter."

Sure it does. An individual member of the majority party with a one seat majority has significantly more leverage to demand things than an individual member of the majority party with a 50 seat majority. He/she cannot be easily ignored in the former case but can be very easily ignored in the latter.

The same standard could be applied to the Supreme Court. If four justices want to issue an opinion but need to make concessions in it to get that fifth justice on board, that fifth justice has considerable power. But he'd have virtually none if six justices were already on board with the opinion.

The four justices who have "decided" can change their vote at any time. So they have just as much power as the swing voter.

No, that's not correct. If one of the "decided" justices were to defect (or threaten to defect), they would gain more power. But the fifth justice, the "swing voter", would at the same moment lose power relative to where he had been, since he now can't credibly make the demands he wants in exchange for reaching a majority. And that defecting justice wouldn't have as much power at that moment as the original swing justice had.

Yes, they all have the same potential power, since any of them could potentially find themselves in the swing vote situation. But in practice, since some of them want the same outcomes at others, or some of them prioritize certain outcomes over other outcomes, they give up power to other justices who are willing to be amenable, if the correct circumstances are met.

This dynamic can also exist in a legislative body, although in a far more complicated way since there are usually more than nine members. But the difference between that dynamic and the Supreme Court dynamic is that the member who decides to make demands in a legislative body must weigh the risks (loss of their seat at the hands of voters or their party leaders) while a member of the Supreme Court doesn't need to weigh that risk.

This is straying far out of the topic of the thread though, so I'm going to let it rest.

[jaichind]

US futures markets down .6%

[Zanas]

It will now be 149 or 150 seats. From my projections, 151 seems too far-fetched now. With 90% of ballots in, the gap between Syriza and ND is now back to tightening a little bit. If it widens just by 0,1 point, it will get to 150 seats.

[Zanas]

I think YorkshireLiberal and Vosem are our best predictions in the dedicated thread.

[Nortexius]

Apparently Tsipras is to meet Independent Greeks party leader tomorrow for talks about cooperation.

twitter.com/metapolls/status/559502319549960192

[y]

Also, something that will probably have a significant effect on the results: Those born in 1997 will not be able to vote since there isn't enough time for them to register.  SYRIZA and KKE have challenged the decision, but there isn't much they can do.
According to newspaper Kathimerini:

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so I think if Syriza would fail to get an absolute majority that decision by the ministry of interior to not include these voters would have made the difference.

[Niemeyerite]

It will now be 149 or 150 seats. From my projections, 151 seems too far-fetched now. With 90% of ballots in, the gap between Syriza and ND is now back to tightening a little bit. If it widens just by 0,1 point, it will get to 150 seats.

SYRIZA has 149.41 seats right now (rounded down to 149) and To Potami 16.49 (rounded up to 17). I'm almost sure SYRIZA will get 1 seat from To Potami.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

[jaichind]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

I am with the former.

[Boston Bread]

I still can't believe that an election where me and Snowstalker support the same party exists.

[Hash]

It would be most welcome if people could take the rhetoric and hyperbole down a tad, and talk in a more reasoned fashion about the election results.

[politicus]

Syriza 36.36% vs. Potami 6.04% now.

How much does that have to move before seat 150 flip?