Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Zanas]

Syriza 36.36% vs. Potami 6.04% now.

How much does that have to move before seat 150 flip?

0,01 or 0,02%. Not kidding.

[politicus]

Syriza 36.36% vs. Potami 6.04% now.

How much does that have to move before seat 150 flip?

0,01 or 0,02%. Not kidding.

hmm It is 36.38-6.04 now whitout them moving it.

[ag]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

Why should there be a clash? Greece should be congratulated with, finally, achieving a political decision to leave the euro and the details should be peaceably worked out. Drachma will be reintroduced and rapidly devalued. EU, hopefully, would provide emergency humanitarian support for a few years and then Greece will resume its growth and development from where it had been in the early 1990s. 

[justfollowingtheelections]

Costa Gavras called Tsipras to congratulate him, which I think is quite interesting because I remember reading a few weeks ago that he's being considered by SYRIZA for president.

http://en.protothema.gr/costa-gavras-congratulates-tsipras-on-his-partys-victory/
 

[jaichind]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

Why should there be a clash? Greece should be congratulated with, finally, achieving a political decision to leave the euro and the details should be peaceably worked out. Drachma will be reintroduced and rapidly devalued. EU, hopefully, would provide emergency humanitarian support for a few years and then Greece will resume its growth and development from where it had been in the early 1990s. 

Well, the clash is that Greece thinks that by the vote today they can achieve a debt write-down without affecting everything else (being in Euro, access to capital markets etc etc) while those who hold that debt does not see it that way.  We will see who blinks first.  I implore the troika to hold firm and not allow this. 

[jaichind]

SRIYZA is back at 36.36.  Looks like it will 149 seats.

[Zanas]

Syriza 36.36% vs. Potami 6.04% now.

How much does that have to move before seat 150 flip?

0,01 or 0,02%. Not kidding.

hmm It is 36.38-6.04 now whitout them moving it.

Make that 36.39 and you've got it.

[Zanas]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

Why should there be a clash? Greece should be congratulated with, finally, achieving a political decision to leave the euro and the details should be peaceably worked out. Drachma will be reintroduced and rapidly devalued. EU, hopefully, would provide emergency humanitarian support for a few years and then Greece will resume its growth and development from where it had been in the early 1990s. 

Well, the clash is that Greece thinks that by the vote today they can achieve a debt write-down without affecting everything else (being in Euro, access to capital markets etc etc) while those who hold that debt does not see it that way.  We will see who blinks first.  I implore the troika to hold firm and not allow this. 

You implore nothing at all. You're not living in the EU, mind your own business.

[politicus]

SRIYZA is back at 36.36.  Looks like it will 149 seats.

Potami also at 6.05 now

[jaichind]

Athens and Thessaloniki are only the real places where there are significant votes outstanding.  SRYIZA is running around 37% in Athens and 34% in Thessaloniki.  If so I suspect SRYIZA's vote share will hold steady from here and end up around 36.36%

[Zanas]

SRIYZA is back at 36.36.  Looks like it will 149 seats.

Potami also at 6.05 now

With 6.05, Syriza needs 36.41.

[Niemeyerite]

Athens and Thessaloniki are only the real places where there are significant votes outstanding.  SRYIZA is running around 37% in Athens and 34% in Thessaloniki.  If so I suspect SRYIZA's vote share will hold steady from here and end up around 36.36%

And Irakleiou.

[Famous Mortimer]

If they need it, it looks like there will be a coalition with Independent Greeks. Talks for tomorrow already set up.

[Niemeyerite]

Hey, maybe SYRIZA steals their 150th vote from PASOK and not from To Potami after all.

[Zanas]

Hey, maybe SYRIZA steals their 150th vote from PASOK and not from To Potami after all.

Do you mean in Parliament or right now in the counting ? Because right now the highest mean allocation of the last seat is between Potami and Syriza, excluding the other parties.

[politicus]

Union of Centrists getting around 1.78%. They flew totally under my radar. Main reason I over estimated Potami was I thought they were the only moderate centre-right-like option (not officiall, but in reality) to speak of.

DIMAR finishing behind Antarsya was also a surprise.

[Niemeyerite]

Hey, maybe SYRIZA steals their 150th vote from PASOK and not from To Potami after all.

Do you mean in Parliament or right now in the counting ? Because right now the highest mean allocation of the last seat is between Potami and Syriza, excluding the other parties.

Right now in the counting. PASOK is decreasing with the last reports, while Potami seems steady.

EDIT: But I think that's a very unlikely scenario.

[Vosem]

Horrible, awful election result, but if there is one silver lining it is this:

Results:
SYRIZA: 36.4%, 149 seats
ND: 27.8%, 76 seats
XA: 6.3%, 17 seats
To Potami: 6.1%, 17 seats
KKE: 5.5%, 15 seats
ANEL: 4.7%, 13 seats
PASOK: 4.7%, 13 seats

My Prediction (copy-pasted from the predictions thread; can't be quoted since it's locked):
SYRIZA 36.5 (149 seats)
ND 29.8 (81 seats)
To Potami 6.4 (17 seats)
XA 6.2 (17 seats)
KKE 5.1 (14 seats)
PASOK 4.9 (13 seats)
ANEL 3.4 (9 seats)

Called the exact seat number for...SYRIZA, To Potami, XA, and PASOK, so 4/7 major parties. Was within 5 seats of the result for all of them. I was within 0.5% of the final result for 5/7 major parties -- all but ND and ANEL, who I over- and under-estimated, respectively.

I'm good

[Zanas]

I was within 0.5% of the final result for 6/7 major parties -- all but ND, who I quite overestimated.

Well, no, you also underestimated Anel by quite a bit, like the bunch of us.

I'm good

Yes. Yes you are. I mentioned it in this thread an hour ago or so. YL was not too far off as well.

[Vosem]

I was within 0.5% of the final result for 6/7 major parties -- all but ND, who I quite overestimated.

Well, no, you also underestimated Anel by quite a bit, like the bunch of us.

Oh, I didn't notice that. I'll edit my triumph post

[justfollowingtheelections]

Union of Centrists getting around 1.78%. They flew totally under my radar. Main reason I over estimated Potami was I thought they were the only moderate centre-right-like option (not officiall, but in reality) to speak of.

DIMAR finishing behind Antarsya was also a surprise.

I don't think anyone expected them to do so well.  Their leader is a very interesting character.  He was a founding PASOK member who left the party before they got into power.  He founded Greece's first green party in 1984 and in 1989 he ran with ND.

From wikipedia:

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[politicus]

Horrible, awful election result, but if there is one silver lining it is this:

Results:
SYRIZA: 36.4%, 149 seats
ND: 27.8%, 76 seats
XA: 6.3%, 17 seats
To Potami: 6.1%, 17 seats
KKE: 5.5%, 15 seats
ANEL: 4.7%, 13 seats
PASOK: 4.7%, 13 seats

My Prediction (copy-pasted from the predictions thread; can't be quoted since it's locked):
SYRIZA 36.5 (149 seats)
ND 29.8 (81 seats)
To Potami 6.4 (17 seats)
XA 6.2 (17 seats)
KKE 5.1 (14 seats)
PASOK 4.9 (13 seats)
ANEL 3.4 (9 seats)

Called the exact seat number for...SYRIZA, To Potami, XA, and PASOK, so 4/7 major parties. Was within 5 seats of the result for all of them. I was within 0.5% of the final result for 5/7 major parties -- all but ND and ANEL, who I over- and under-estimated, respectively.

I'm good

I will open the prediction thread once we have the final result.

Please keep prediction stuff out of this one.

[Zanas]

Well, ladiesy and gentlemen, it's over. To Potami just crossed 6.06%, which makes Syriza in need for 36.43 to topple them for their 150th seat, and with 96.4% in this won't be happening. Syriza stays at 149. Good, but symbolically frustrating. Now, let's see what they make of that.

[politicus]

Prediction thread opened. I just thought we could wait for the end result.

[Zanas]

Let us not overlook the satisfaction that the fascist party actually lost 50,000 votes in a situation of economical crisis and paranoia against the almighty banks-Troika-Merkel et al. I think we can nearly all agree on this one particular satisfaction tonight.