Greek election - January 25th 2015
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  Greek election - January 25th 2015
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Author Topic: Greek election - January 25th 2015  (Read 93412 times)
Zuza
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« Reply #575 on: January 26, 2015, 07:11:47 AM »

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Actually the only one

Isn't KKE also kept all its MPs?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #576 on: January 26, 2015, 07:14:36 AM »

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Actually the only one

Isn't KKE also kept all its MPs?

my mistake, you are correct! I was going through the different parties by memory and momentarily forgot they existed
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politicus
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« Reply #577 on: January 26, 2015, 07:50:19 AM »

Interview with one of the leading spokesmen for the Left Platform. He avoids answering the question of what will happen if Syriza does not get a majority on its own, but his description of their relationship to the leadership is telling.

"the Left Platform plus the left wings of the majority bloc are actually the majority inside the party, and we have seen that in the last period, for example on the crucial issue of alliances. The leadership pushed very much for an alliance with Dimar, and it didn’t succeed. It didn’t succeed because the reaction inside the party was overwhelming, and the motor of that reaction were these two left components.

So despite the fact that the question of the euro still works to prevent a more cohesive attitude in what we can now call the broad left of the party, it is nevertheless the case that the room for maneuver for the leadership has become much more limited.

Unfortunately, the majority of the leadership has autonomized itself yet further from the party and disregarded the party decisions. I’m not here talking about some kind of simple divide between the base and the leadership — I mean autonomous from the party as a whole. And that is, of course, a very serious risk for the future."

Hard to see these guys just bow their heads and adapt to a Syriza-Anel alliance. They got 30% at the founding congress in Syriza.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/01/phase-one/
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #578 on: January 26, 2015, 07:51:09 AM »

Tsipras will break the tradition by not being sworn in by the head of Greece’s orthodox church, Archbishop Ieronymos.

I want to see his birth certificate.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #579 on: January 26, 2015, 08:37:04 AM »

Hard to see these guys just bow their heads and adapt to a Syriza-Anel alliance. They got 30% at the founding congress in Syriza.

We should not forget the possibility that it'll be ANEL, and not the SYRIZA left-wing that gets the short stick in this agreement. I think it's much more possible that Syriza runs over ANEL with left-wing policies, that will cause ANEL to rebel, than it is that they take a huge leap to the centre thereby annihilating their own caucus.

I have so far never heard of a coalition government where the dominant party didn't get to decide 90-95% of the policies leaving just crumbs to their partners, so I don't see why SYRIZA would actually give ANEL any meaningful influence on the new governments policy.   
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« Reply #580 on: January 26, 2015, 08:55:25 AM »

So I wonder if this means SYRIZA won't pass gay marriage. Though they still could with Potami and PASOK support. Actually I wonder how KKE would vote on that, would be interesting.
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politicus
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« Reply #581 on: January 26, 2015, 09:01:20 AM »

So I wonder if this means SYRIZA won't pass gay marriage. Though they still could with Potami and PASOK support. Actually I wonder how KKE would vote on that, would be interesting.

Gay marriage would be impossible with Anel. It would just be too big a humiliation for them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #582 on: January 26, 2015, 09:06:08 AM »

Why did SYRIZA work out an alliance with ANEL anyway?  Seems to me that anything on their agenda there is at least another party that supports said policy so they can just pass their agenda with support from a different opposition party on a case by case basis.  it would seem to me that the main reason for the alliance with ANEL would be to make sure that the government is rock solid to take on the bailout negotiations which would be tough.  
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politicus
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« Reply #583 on: January 26, 2015, 09:08:41 AM »

Why did SYRIZA work out an alliance with ANEL anyway?  Seems to me that anything on their agenda there is at least another party that supports said policy so they can just pass their agenda with support from a different opposition party on a case by case basis.  it would seem to me that the main reason for the alliance with ANEL would be to make sure that the government is rock solid to take on the bailout negotiations which would be tough.  

Yeah, there are bound to be defections and they needed a buffer, but it was still a hasty and almost certainly wrong decision.
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Philip Weisler
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« Reply #584 on: January 26, 2015, 09:16:08 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2015, 09:23:25 AM by Philip Weisler »

The thing is, in some countries the economic left-right axis is more important, in some others the libertarian-authoritarian - I'd personally use the term ''liberal-conservative'' - axis is more prominent. The latter seems to be the case in well-off countries of Northern Europe. Like Sweden. As I tried to argue before, this axis is not dominant in Greece as of now.

But you can take the Netherlands until Cabinet Kok I (1994-1998) as an example of economic axis being more important. The Christian Democratic parties were economically centrist and governed with either the Party of Labour on the left or with the economically liberal VVD on the right. Only in 1994 could the socially liberal parties from the left and right form a coalition. According to Wikipedia:

The cabinet started processes of liberalisation which were completed by the same coalition in the following cabinet: the legalisation of prostitution in 2000, same-sex marriage in 2001 and Euthanasia in 2002.

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.
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Philip Weisler
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« Reply #585 on: January 26, 2015, 09:20:43 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2015, 09:46:47 AM by Philip Weisler »

@Charlotte

I hope your world did not collapse because of that ''wrong decision'' that revealed lots of the discussion here about SYRIZA+Potami etc as what it was - wishful thinking Wink.

Yeah, there are bound to be defections and they needed a buffer, but it was still a hasty and almost certainly wrong decision.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #586 on: January 26, 2015, 09:30:04 AM »

From a pragmatic standpoint, ANEL are partners in opposition to austerity. I dislike the speed at which this alliance was made but hope that it is as short as is necessary.
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politicus
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« Reply #587 on: January 26, 2015, 09:45:20 AM »

Hard to see these guys just bow their heads and adapt to a Syriza-Anel alliance. They got 30% at the founding congress in Syriza.

We should not forget the possibility that it'll be ANEL, and not the SYRIZA left-wing that gets the short stick in this agreement. I think it's much more possible that Syriza runs over ANEL with left-wing policies, that will cause ANEL to rebel, than it is that they take a huge leap to the centre thereby annihilating their own caucus.

I have so far never heard of a coalition government where the dominant party didn't get to decide 90-95% of the policies leaving just crumbs to their partners, so I don't see why SYRIZA would actually give ANEL any meaningful influence on the new governments policy.   

True, but this coalition deal happens in a context where a pragmatic leadership is trying to moderate the party's policies on a wide range of issues, while a principled and well organized left wing (both Left Platform and the left wing of the majority coalition) tries to insist on to a more radical agenda. An alliance with a right wing party is bound to influence this internal power struggle and move the leadership further to the right.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #588 on: January 26, 2015, 09:55:08 AM »

Just wanting to say I've been reading this thread assiduously from its start. I didn't want to post in it for fear that the results would disappoint me once again, but, amazingly, for once things went right! Smiley Well, almost: it's quite frustrating to see Syriza so friggin' close to an absolute majority, which would have provided for a lot more safety in the battles that will soon ensue. Still, this is a great day for democracy, for Greece, and for Europe.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #589 on: January 26, 2015, 10:09:46 AM »

Already sworn in ?

That was quick.

Hopefully they get some important things done and let's hope he doesn't end up being a Hollande-clone.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #590 on: January 26, 2015, 10:10:45 AM »

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength. An alliance with ANEL will prevent critics from being able to make a traditional "left vs. right" issue out of it, and instead he can claim to be leading a movement that's so important that it transcends traditional partisan boundaries. Also if he takes a hard stance against the troika he'll have an easier time keeping both ANEL and his own party in line- if they're playing hardball with Europe, nobody in that coalition is going to vote for new elections while the stakes are so high.

I'm not sure if this will work in the slightest but I definitely see the method to the madness
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« Reply #591 on: January 26, 2015, 10:27:29 AM »

Standard and Poor's threaten to cut Greek credit rating.
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« Reply #592 on: January 26, 2015, 10:35:24 AM »

Standard and Poor's threaten to cut Greek credit rating.

If they really wanted to hurt Tsipras though, they'd have done it pre-election.
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Beezer
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« Reply #593 on: January 26, 2015, 11:17:35 AM »

First thing Tsipras does is visit a memorial to 200 Greeks killed by the Nazis...

http://news.sky.com/story/1415233/greece-alexis-tsipras-visits-war-memorial
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #594 on: January 26, 2015, 11:31:56 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2015, 11:34:26 AM by Foucaulf »

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength...

Agree with BK, though I'd like to be more specific:

What is the one fear that the Eurocrats have? A Greek exit from the Euro. Both sides in the negotiations know that, were the Greeks to decide on a Grexit, it would have to be a sudden and unannounced decision from the Greek side. Now we're in a standard principal-agent problem, where the Europeans have to make the initial offer to the Greeks which also does not push them to default.

The problem is that, over the past few years, default has been taken off of the table as a serious option (not nearly as prevalent as it was in 2012). For Tsipras to get more concessions out of the Europeans, he has to credibly raise the idea that his government would consider default as an option. This would be why he chose ANEL over Potami, and according to this theory he will let his left wing make more rabble-rousing as the negotiations start. It is to his benefit that he frames the negotiations as if it were a hostage situation.


Also think people here are placing their pessimism in this coalition in the wrong place - the left will rebel as soon as Tsipras can't get the Europeans to move, let alone all those other issues.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #595 on: January 26, 2015, 12:33:32 PM »

So, does the move toward Anel signal that a Grexit is more likely or less likely than first thought?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #596 on: January 26, 2015, 12:39:05 PM »

So I wonder if this means SYRIZA won't pass gay marriage. Though they still could with Potami and PASOK support. Actually I wonder how KKE would vote on that, would be interesting.

Gay marriage would be impossible with Anel. It would just be too big a humiliation for them.


Gay marriage would have been impossible anyway. We just aren't there yet as a people.
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jaichind
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« Reply #597 on: January 26, 2015, 01:07:17 PM »

So, does the move toward Anel signal that a Grexit is more likely or less likely than first thought?

It is more to convince the Germans that they might really be crazy, in order to extract more concessions.  Not sure this will work since giving concessions to the Greeks would probably trigger demands from other beleaguered southern economies for similar relief.
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Meeker
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« Reply #598 on: January 26, 2015, 01:23:49 PM »

Surely Tsipras and his team thought this all through in the week or two leading up to the election? It seems unlikely he's making this decision on the fly, which leads me to agree with BK and Foucaulf.

It's somewhat reminiscent of Boehner's negotiating strategy on government funding and the debt ceiling during 2011-13.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #599 on: January 26, 2015, 01:33:52 PM »

So, does the move toward Anel signal that a Grexit is more likely or less likely than first thought?

It is more to convince the Germans that they might really be crazy, in order to extract more concessions.  Not sure this will work since giving concessions to the Greeks would probably trigger demands from other beleaguered southern economies for similar relief.

The CDU probably wouldn't want to lose any votes to the AfD too, which could happen if it looks the Greeks are given too much leeway. On the other hand, it isn't really an important election year with state elections happening only Hamburg and Bremen. 2016 would be much tougher.
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