Greek election - January 25th 2015

[justfollowingtheelections]

Landslide, is there a reason why the Centrists did better in Macedonia and especially in Thessaloniki?

Also, can you tell us a little bit about Teleia?

[Philip Weisler]

This is exactly why I doubt that the sides could reach a real compromise such as 50% write-off. In general of course it is better to get 50% of your money back as opposed to nothing at all, but such a write-off would immediately give ammunition to PODEMOS in Spain etc. - ''if SYRIZA could, we'll make it as well''. And it's election year in Spain and Portugal . So I think Brussels will rather let Greece default and expel Greece from the Eurozone. A kind of a warning to others, after all.

It is more to convince the Germans that they might really be crazy, in order to extract more concessions.  Not sure this will work since giving concessions to the Greeks would probably trigger demands from other beleaguered southern economies for similar relief.

[EPG]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

[Mehmentum]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

Its a shot across the bow of Merkel and the Germans.

[Franzl]

Greece is not in a position to blackmail us at this point anymore, and if they intend to go about this in an aggressive way which does seem to be the message so far, they stand more to lose than anyone else.

We'll see.

[traininthedistance]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

Its a shot across the bow of Merkel and the Germans.

Man, if the Germans are really going to get all het up about Tsipiras commemorating the victims of actual honest-to-god Nazis then... wow, just wow. 

[EPG]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

Its a shot across the bow of Merkel and the Germans.

Man, if the Germans are really going to get all het up about Tsipiras commemorating the victims of actual honest-to-god Nazis then... wow, just wow.  

Come on, everybody, let's not play dumb. You understand the symbolism here. SYRIZA commemorates the resistance, asserting its continuity with that movement, while it promises to fight Berlin. This draws a parallel between contemporary Germans' role in Greece and that of the Nazis.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

Its a shot across the bow of Merkel and the Germans.

Man, if the Germans are really going to get all het up about Tsipiras commemorating the victims of actual honest-to-god Nazis then... wow, just wow.  

Come on, everybody, let's not play dumb. You understand the symbolism here. SYRIZA commemorates the resistance, asserting its continuity with that movement, while it promises to fight Berlin. This draws a parallel between contemporary Germans' role in Greece and that of the Nazis.

Seriously?  You're quite paranoid.

[traininthedistance]

Come on, everybody, let's not play dumb. You understand the symbolism here. SYRIZA commemorates the resistance, asserting its continuity with that movement, while it promises to fight Berlin. This draws a parallel between contemporary Germans' role in Greece and that of the Nazis.

I had originally thought they were just sticking it to Golden Dawn.  If they are trying to stick it to Merkel & co... and that theory does upon relection make sense... it would still be bad optics for the Germans to complain.  Well, more than merely bad "optics".

[EPG]

Come on, everybody, let's not play dumb. You understand the symbolism here. SYRIZA commemorates the resistance, asserting its continuity with that movement, while it promises to fight Berlin. This draws a parallel between contemporary Germans' role in Greece and that of the Nazis.

I had originally thought they were just sticking it to Golden Dawn.  If they are trying to stick it to Merkel & co... and that theory does upon relection make sense... it would still be bad optics for the Germans to complain.  Well, more than merely bad "optics".

Yes, and yes, the Germans won't complain; it doesn't matter, they're not the ultimate audience (SYRIZA is telling Greeks that they will fight the troika like the resistance fought the Nazis). Oh dear, it appears that my paranoia is contagious!

[justfollowingtheelections]

Come on, everybody, let's not play dumb. You understand the symbolism here. SYRIZA commemorates the resistance, asserting its continuity with that movement, while it promises to fight Berlin. This draws a parallel between contemporary Germans' role in Greece and that of the Nazis.

I had originally thought they were just sticking it to Golden Dawn.  If they are trying to stick it to Merkel & co... and that theory does upon relection make sense... it would still be bad optics for the Germans to complain.  Well, more than merely bad "optics".

Yes, and yes, the Germans won't complain; it doesn't matter, they're not the ultimate audience (SYRIZA is telling Greeks that they will fight the troika like the resistance fought the Nazis). Oh dear, it appears that my paranoia is contagious!

You are really making too much out of nothing. 

Anyway, here's a very interesting interview Yanis Varoufakis, Greece's new minister gave to BBC today. 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02hp632

[jaichind]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

I think it is when it takes place on the same day that the new SYRIZA regime is saying that Germany will have to pay war reparations for WWII and that Greece should get debt forgiveness like Germany did after WWII.  By its acts and words it tries to tie the current German regime to the WWII German regime which obviously is seen as provocative by the current German government.

[MaxQue]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

I think it is when it takes place on the same day that the new SYRIZA regime is saying that Germany will have to pay war reparations for WWII and that Greece should get debt forgiveness like Germany did after WWII.  By its acts and words it tries to tie the current German regime to the WWII German regime which obviously is seen as provocative by the current German government.

But they can't afford to complain about it, especially one day before the 70th anniversary of Auschwiss closure.

[ag]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

I think it is when it takes place on the same day that the new SYRIZA regime is saying that Germany will have to pay war reparations for WWII and that Greece should get debt forgiveness like Germany did after WWII.  By its acts and words it tries to tie the current German regime to the WWII German regime which obviously is seen as provocative by the current German government.

But they can't afford to complain about it, especially one day before the 70th anniversary of Auschwiss closure.

Nobody is going to complain. Germans would be the last ones to complain: they would share the pain and the commemoration.

But it is the new Greek government that needs something from Germany, not the other way around. And if the new PM gets into the habbit of implicitly comparing Merkel to Hitler, he will not be any more likely to get what he needs.

[Franzl]

I really don't care much if Tsipras wants to make symbolic appearences. And it's nothing to complain about either way. That said, it shows the way he wants to play and I think he overestimates his own position.

[jaichind]

I really don't care much if Tsipras wants to make symbolic appearences. And it's nothing to complain about either way. That said, it shows the way he wants to play and I think he overestimates his own position.

Tsipras better start getting with the picture on where he stands.  Greece must repay $5.1bn to the IMF in February and March. Tax revenues have collapsed as Greeks preempt what they hope will be a repeal of austerity taxes.   As a result the Greek government only has around $2.9bn and has spending costs of $2.5bn coming up. Somebody needs to lend the country money soon.   The Greek media reports that capital flight last week reached $15bn as it became the clear that the Syriza would win the election. Outflows of $30bn since early December, roughly 12% of GDP, most likely took place.  The European Central Bank is for now stepping into the breach. Liquidity support for Greek banks spiked to $80bn at the end of December, and is rising fast. If the ECB were to pull the plug, Greece would spiral into a systemic crisis immediately.  Tsipras needs money and he needs it now.  Going around talking about a debt write-down now is biting the hand that feeds you.  

[rob in cal]

In terms of reparations relating to World War 2, has Tsipras also asked Italy to be part of this. It was the Italian invasion of Greece in fall of 1940 from bases in Albania that got the whole disastrous events started. Hitler was actually furious about the invasion when he first heard about it as he correctly saw that it would lead to diversions in men and material from the main event, Operation Barbarossa the invasion of Russia the next year. Hitler would much rather have had Greece played a role similar to that of Bulgaria or Turkey.  There were even some German attempts at facilitating a peace between Italy and Greece soon after the Italian invasion started.
   History digression over.

[jaichind]

If Tsipras insist on some sort of debt write-down. I can propose a compromise (which I know there is no hope for anyway) which would be a debt-to-equity swap.  Since the Greece debt/GDP is 175% and the Eurozone limit is 60%, what we can do is to swap 115% of the 175% debt into equity.  That 115% can be swapped into shares which allow the owner of said shares to own part of the Greek economy.  Lets say 40% of the Greek economy can be swapped this way where that 115% of the debt is transformed into 40% ownership of the Greek economy.  All Greek income will be subject to an extra 2.5% tax to pay for dividends to said shareholders who can then buy and sell these shares.  What is good about this setup are that these shareholders will do everything possible to push up Greek income instead of just pushing the Greek government for more austerity so their debt can be repaid.  They can even end up helping and pushing for (I cannot believe I am saying this) the Greek government to reduce the size of the black economy so to overcome tax avoidance since that will only increase their dividends.  Overtime as the Greek economy recovers the Greek government can even start buying back these shares from the market.  You have to get the current debt-holders to have an economic incentive to get help grow the Greek economy.  

[rob in cal]

Jaichind, has anything like your compromise idea ever happened anywhere?  It would be interesting to see a working model of it.  Personally, the island of Corfu looks wonderful to me. I propose renting a nice apartment there every summer as part of my early retirement program, and thereby stimulating the local economy.

[SNJ1985]

I wonder how long the SYRIZA-ANEL coalition will last. It's certainly an odd coupling.

I'm a fan of the Independent Greeks, so I'm glad to see them in government. I just wish they were the dominant party instead of SYRIZA...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Landslide, is there a reason why the Centrists did better in Macedonia and especially in Thessaloniki?

Also, can you tell us a little bit about Teleia?

If by Centrists you mean Leventis then there is the rumor that the local bosses of ND, who despise Samaras, encouraged their voters to vote for Leventis just to embarrass the former Prime Minister.

Teleia is another joke party, a vanity project founded by a former actor and current mayor of a small town. 

[Zanas]

If Tsipras insist on some sort of debt write-down. I can propose a compromise (which I know there is no hope for anyway) which would be a debt-to-equity swap.  Since the Greece debt/GDP is 175% and the Eurozone limit is 60%, what we can do is to swap 115% of the 175% debt into equity.  That 115% can be swapped into shares which allow the owner of said shares to own part of the Greek economy.  Lets say 40% of the Greek economy can be swapped this way where that 115% of the debt is transformed into 40% ownership of the Greek economy.  All Greek income will be subject to an extra 2.5% tax to pay for dividends to said shareholders who can then buy and sell these shares.  What is good about this setup are that these shareholders will do everything possible to push up Greek income instead of just pushing the Greek government for more austerity so their debt can be repaid.  They can even end up helping and pushing for (I cannot believe I am saying this) the Greek government to reduce the size of the black economy so to overcome tax avoidance since that will only increase their dividends.  Overtime as the Greek economy recovers the Greek government can even start buying back these shares from the market.  You have to get the current debt-holders to have an economic incentive to get help grow the Greek economy. 

Sorry, but this is just insane. Greece is not a cake you can tear apart and give to the plutocrats out there. Well, yes, it is, but it shouldn't stay that way, let alone worsen that way.

[Helsinkian]

I read on the Guardian that there are 39 members in the new Tsipras cabinet. Is it common for the Greek cabinets to be so big?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I read on the Guardian that there are 39 members in the new Tsipras cabinet. Is it common for the Greek cabinets to be so big?

Yes.