Greek election - January 25th 2015

[rob in cal]

Looks like Marine Le Pen of the French National Front is also a Syriza supporter, outside of Syriza's immigration policy.  The move toward ANEL will probably confirm those feelings.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like Marine Le Pen of the French National Front is also a Syriza supporter, outside of Syriza's immigration policy.  The move toward ANEL will probably confirm those feelings.

Marine Le Pen is obviously trying to cash in on Syriza's success (even though their platforms have really nothing in common), but I don't see how that's relevant to Greece in any way.

[Bacon King]

It's very amusing that both Le Pen and Melenchon publicly congratulated Tsipras after the election

[Velasco]

Looks like Marine Le Pen of the French National Front is also a Syriza supporter, outside of Syriza's immigration policy.  The move toward ANEL will probably confirm those feelings.

Marine Le Pen is obviously trying to cash in on Syriza's success (even though their platforms have really nothing in common), but I don't see how that's relevant to Greece in any way.

If I remember well, Panzergirl and the FN's troupe have said some kind words about Podemos in Spain. They dislike their "sectarianism" and likely the immigration platform, similar to Syriza's. Obviously, they are fishing in the troubled waters of the "establishment". Pure demagogic tactics.

[rob in cal]

Actually, I believe the National Front also calls for proportional representation and I believe Direct Democracy, which Syriza does.  I'm guessing it would also support many aspects of Syriza's foreign policy, especially avoidance of foreign entanglements at the behest of the US.

[MaxQue]

Actually, I believe the National Front also calls for proportional representation and I believe Direct Democracy, which Syriza does.  I'm guessing it would also support many aspects of Syriza's foreign policy, especially avoidance of foreign entanglements at the behest of the US.

Oh, no, don't search that far. FN is anti-establishment as is Syriza. FN roots for all anti-establisment parties, because they hope to replicated their success.

[politicus]

Looks like Marine Le Pen of the French National Front is also a Syriza supporter, outside of Syriza's immigration policy.  The move toward ANEL will probably confirm those feelings.

Marine Le Pen is obviously trying to cash in on Syriza's success (even though their platforms have really nothing in common), but I don't see how that's relevant to Greece in any way.

If I remember well, Panzergirl and the FN's troupe have said some kind words about Podemos in Spain. They dislike their "sectarianism" and likely the immigration platform, similar to Syriza's. Obviously, they are fishing in the troubled waters of the "establishment". Pure demagogic tactics.

Sticking it to the EU basically.

[Sir John Johns]

More to come.

[Velasco]

Great maps!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting, thanks!

[Diouf]

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http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=4756

[politicus]

Why should Syriza feel the need to go to the voters again with 149 seats behind them? It is a matter of keeping their coalition together, which will be easier if Tsipras play hardball, than if he makes concessions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gotta love how this guy manage to spin the fact that anti-austerity forces enjoy a 12-point advantage over pro-austerity ones in the Greek electorate into an indication that Europe "should not be afraid of standing up to the new Athens coalition".

The Greek people have spoken, and the results are clear to even the most stubborn hack.

[Tender Branson]

Great maps.

Sparta is really pro-ND and pro-Golden Dawn. Also pro-ANEL ?

[jaichind]

Gotta love how this guy manage to spin the fact that anti-austerity forces enjoy a 12-point advantage over pro-austerity ones in the Greek electorate into an indication that Europe "should not be afraid of standing up to the new Athens coalition".

The Greek people have spoken, and the results are clear to even the most stubborn hack.

What factual aspect of this person's write-up do you disagree with ? I happen to agree with the facts a lot.  My view election night as the results came in

Looking at the results so far it seems this election is mostly about DIMAR-Green and ANEL vote from June 2012 going to SYRIZA.  Other than that it is mostly small shifts of the same votes between various similar parties  (like PASOK ->  KIDISO and River)

Pretty much matches what this guy wrote.  It seem to me what took place was a consolidation of the anti-austerity majority around SYRIZA in 2015 where as it was splintered in June 2012.  I guess on part I disagree with this person on is that DIMAR should not really be considered anti-austerity in June 2012 but its vote base for sure swung to an anti-austerity position in 2015.  In that sense something did change. 

[politicus]

Gotta love how this guy manage to spin the fact that anti-austerity forces enjoy a 12-point advantage over pro-austerity ones in the Greek electorate into an indication that Europe "should not be afraid of standing up to the new Athens coalition".

The Greek people have spoken, and the results are clear to even the most stubborn hack.

What factual aspect of this person's write-up do you disagree with ? I happen to agree with the facts a lot.  My view election night as the results came in

Looking at the results so far it seems this election is mostly about DIMAR-Green and ANEL vote from June 2012 going to SYRIZA.  Other than that it is mostly small shifts of the same votes between various similar parties  (like PASOK ->  KIDISO and River)

Pretty much matches what this guy wrote.  It seem to me what took place was a consolidation of the anti-austerity majority around SYRIZA in 2015 where as it was splintered in June 2012.  I guess on part I disagree with this person on is that DIMAR should not really be considered anti-austerity in June 2012 but its vote base for sure swung to an anti-austerity position in 2015.  In that sense something did change.  

The factual part about the election result is fine, but rather obvious. The conclusions he draws from it are strange and irrational.

[You kip if you want to...]

How well do SYRIZA strongholds match up with old PASOK strongholds?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Rhodope and Achaea seem like big Freedom Subdivisions: Strongly SYRIZA with very low levels of support for both ND and Golden Shower. I know Thracian Muslims broke heavily for SYRIZA (is that mostly because of SYRIZA's traditional opposition to the privileges of the Church of Greece, or are there other reasons too?), but what's going on in Achaea? Is that a traditionally leftist area?

[Хahar 🤔]

As I think I mentioned earlier, it's worth noting that SYRIZA finished in third place in Rhodope at the last election. Muslims were the last group to abandon PASOK for SYRIZA; I haven't checked, but I doubt that before the crisis the far-left attracted much support at all among Thracian Muslims.

[windjammer]

More to come.

It appears that XA took vote from ND. So no transfuge between Syriza and ND???

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Golden Shower's vote share actually decreased slightly from the last time around.

[Sir John Johns]

Great maps.

Sparta is really pro-ND and pro-Golden Dawn. Also pro-ANEL ?

Not really, ANEL only got 2.73% in Laconia and 2.43% in Sparta itself, less than its national result. LAOS also underperformed there.



To Potami seems to have its best results with the urban voters. In Attica, its best result is in the wealthy suburb of Filothei-Psychiko which is also New Democracy's second best municipality in whole Greece. Good results also in Rhodope (they seems to really hate ND there) and in Crete, especially in westernmost part (birthplace of its leader).

On a relate note, a general (and not really surprising) pattern I noticed while making the ND map: in a good chunk of regional units, ND tends to have its worst result in the most populated municipality.



Rhodope and Xanthis really aren't huge fans of KKE: these are the party's two worst regional units and two of the only four ones where its share of vote decreased (down from already very low results).

[Philip Weisler]

To Potami seems to have its best results with the urban voters. In Attica, its best result is in the wealthy suburb of Filothei-Psychiko which is also New Democracy's second best municipality in whole Greece. Good results also in Rhodope (they seems to really hate ND there) and in Crete, especially in westernmost part (birthplace of its leader).

On a relate note, a general (and not really surprising) pattern I noticed while making the ND map: in a good chunk of regional units, ND tends to have its worst result in the most populated municipality.

Rhodope has a sizable Muslim community, around half of the population. The region used to be PASOK stronghold and even in May 2012 (the disaster election for PASOK) they won there: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_May_2012#mediaviewer/File:Greek_legislative_elections_2012_map.svg. Interestingly, ND won in June 2012.

As for Crete, PASOK won in all the regional units there apart from Chania in May 2012, but SYRIZA won in all the regional units of Crete in June, 2012. Nevertheless, this may explain Potami's good showing there in 2015: there are lots of centre-left, pro-European voters who now chose the untainted Potami instead of PASOK.    

[RodPresident]

Why are people talking about Avramopoulos (ND EU Commissioner) as Tsipras' presidential choice?

[Sir John Johns]

ANEL map.


The municipality over 19% is Nisyros in Dodecanese.

PASOK map.


Three municipalities over 19%, all in Dodecanese: Chalki, Agathonisi, and Kasos.