Greek election - January 25th 2015

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GD makes a good argument for some form of preferential vote - they'll be at the last pretty much everybody's transfer list so they can effectively be restricted.

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1) Will anti-austerity right wingers vote for ND to stop Syriza?

2) If ND goes right does that give some of the centrist options a chance to capture moderate centre-right voters? All the centrist options are basically centre-left, so how does the battle for the centre play out in this scenario?

1) As you probably can guess, no. In fact, they might prefer an unstable Syriza minority because it breeds the instability in which they feed on/

2) To Potami? I mean the party is ridiculously intellectual and elite (look at their selected list of names), they might get the urban ND voter that seems to be souring on them in recent years.

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Possibly. In Spain, the Rajoy's rightward turns (and scandals) have left centrists leaving to PSOE in droves, maintaining PSOE as a viable force even with much of their "base" flirting with Podemos. Maybe the soft-right will boost the centrist leftists to "moderate" an "inevitable" Syriza government.

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So I wanted to poke around looking at what a Syriza government would actually do in power, beyond cross their fingers and desperately hope Germany's heart grows three sizes. I managed to find a manifesto of sorts from 2012:

http://links.org.au/node/2888

Some awesomely hare-brained stuff (they want Germany to pay them WWII reparations? Um, good luck with that), and a couple of stuff that almost certainly will be abandoned; but there are some good stuff in there. Unfortunately being in the euro means they won't get any of it done, so I expect them to sort of flail around doing soft-left issues to keep the base kinda happy.

(incidentally while I was searching google for New Left issues that a Syriza government could take action on, I found out that Papandreou supports the legalisation of marijuana now (?!?) )

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A Syriza-ND grand coalition would be hilarious.

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KKE do loathe Syriza, but I wonder if they will offer supply and confidence votes.

The other worry, of course, is that a President still needs to be picked with a supermajority. Will the left have enough votes to support a Syriza nominee?

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Syriza has recently made the classic move that various other maturing protest parties (the SNP, the German and Australian Greens etc.) have made over the years: the abandonment of fruitless threats to leave military alliances like NATO and "recalibrate" foreign policy or whatever.

These protest parties grow up so fast!

Also, The Economist begrudgingly declares Syriza won't be the end of the world. Phew.

In other news: To Potami declare a Moderate Hero position on migration (shocker) and complain that other people are complaining they have no policies

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@Philip

Samaras has made moves to the social right in issues like immigration - that last thing he needs is a populist right revival, so making overtures towards the liberals on things like law and order could be anathema.

I also think you're being a bit generous to Potami by claiming they have any policy at all. I imagine Potami - and PASOK for that matter - would justify being in a Syriza led government (or at least offering supply and confidence votes) as "maintaining a stable government" and "respecting the voter's decision".

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Yes, I think @Philip, you may be taken in by some of the more ... melodramatic statements from both  Syriza and their opponents.

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I think they will quite basically offer supply to whichever party ends up with the bonus seats.

Remember a of these new parties hate the "old parties" represented by PASOK and ND, which puts further barriers in the way of coalitions. They also have seen the sad fate of DIMAR and do not want to follow.

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I like discussing politics and all, but really my main passion is for bizarre election ads, so I thank you for that politicus.

Could they have made Samaras look any more creepy?

And that second one is really strange as well. I can't make much sense of the train metaphor, knowing what I know about ANEL. I also enjoyed the boy's hilariously pithy responce ("well it turns out you were actually vaguely helpful!")

"Necessary Good" is a terrible slogan, but maybe it comes across better in Greek.

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Can't we all set aside the bickering, and concentrate on the really important issues? Namely: laughing at how lame PASOK are and how vainglorious its former leader is.

Remember when Greek politics was in tremendous danger of Paprandeau followed by Karamanlis followed by Paprandeau followed by Karamanlis followed by Paprandeau...?

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Interesting interview with Syriza's economics spokesperson. First off he has a great name - Euclid!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Estimate of 25% of Syriza members who want more immediate actions like nationalisations and arrests of old regime figures.

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My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

Why? ND hasn't been ahead since May and recent polls show Syriza increasing their margin.

Probably expecting a last minute "devil you know" feeling from voters. Not that I agree, but I see the logic.

FT profiles the fate of the political dynasties of Greece - the Karamanlis, Mitsotakis and Papandreou families . The Mitsotakis seem to be doing well, Karamanlis a mixed bag and it is probably the end of the line for Georgios' clan.

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I would expect Potami to surge, were it not for the plurality bonus. As you say, I think moderates will pick Syriza - not because they are particularly enamoured with leftists, but to vote against the ECB.

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@Philip, do you really expect is Syriza get the 50 seat bonus (and they probably will), To Potami will try to cobble together with a some sort of ND-PASOK alliance with no way near a majority?

They want to be in government and will do a deal with either party that wins the bonus - which looks like Syriza if the polls are doing good and people are being honest in their responses. That said, such a government possibly won't last a full term - either due to To Potami pulling out or (more likely) defectional disorder among Syriza.

Venizelos has just said he is open to PASOK being in a Syriza led government as has Kammenos of ANEL.

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you're missing my point.

These will be the results from a random poll I picked where Syriza did worse than average.

Syriza (37.4%) + bonus: 145
ND (33.7%): 85
XA (7.1%): 17
KKE (6.2%): 15
POTAMI (6.1%): 15
PASOK (5.0%): 12
ANEL (4.6%): 11

Any government needs 150 seats. The present coalition is reduced to 100 and needs 50 more, so unless you see an anti-Syriza coalition with everyone from the Commies to Golden Dawn, Tspiras will be PM. (unless polls are drastically wrong).

True, Syriza will then need confidence from a partner. The thing is he has a wide choice to chose from - any one of ANEL, PASOK, Potami or even Papandreou's outfit, want the influence of government; so they are in no position to make Syriza make drastic concessions otherwise Tspiras will say "k, we don't need you anyway". He can even decide to freak them out by threatening the spectre of a Syriza-Communist alliance or a reelection which would squeeze the third party vote.

Of the choices, Alexis will probably want Potami the most (being the least "tainted") but he would presumably drive a hard bargain.

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yes, I effed up the calculation on the site I use to calculate these things. Still the point stands - Syriza has been throughout this year at between 140-150 seats, and an ND led coalition would be next to impossible even if ANEL and Potami join in for whatever reason.

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RIP CAPITALISM

I wonder what happens to ND now? Is Samaras going to try and stay, or will he be toppled by one his moderate rivals?

More of the same sort of spending policies that got Greece into this mess in the first place?

smh

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I always feel bad when I see politicians on their way out:



European politicians across the spectrum are poking their opinion in the election results.

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Let us not overlook the satisfaction that the fascist party actually lost 50,000 votes in a situation of economical crisis and paranoia against the almighty banks-Troika-Merkel et al. I think we can nearly all agree on this one particular satisfaction tonight.

I have no high hopes for Syriza, but I do have a private hope that New Democracy follows PASOK into electoral hell in the next few years.

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Standard and Poor's threaten to cut Greek credit rating.