Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Philip Weisler]

I would like to emphasize that the main cleavage in Greek politics since the crisis is not right-left in the traditional (or American) sense.  

There is no way going to be a ND + XA + ANEL alliance on the nominally right nor a Syriza, Pasok, Potami (+KKE) on the ''left''.

First, XA is a Nazi party no-one will form any coalition with.

Second, PASOK may still be nominally leftist but the main thing is - pro-bailout, pro-eurozone and therefore: pro-austerity. The same goes for POTAMI, even if it is a relatively untainted newcomer.

ANEL is an anti-austerity breakaway from ND that has numerous times considered an alliance with the radically leftist SYRIZA.

Short: the main thing is parties in favour of continuing with pro-bailout policies: PASOK, ND, Kinima (should they pass the 3% barrier), probably Potami and provided some minor concessions are made, Dimar, too (but surely fails the barrier).  

Anti-bailout includes SYRIZA and KKE on the hard left and ANEL, LAOS (quite certain to fail to cross the barrier, listed just FYI) and XA on the populist right - to far right.

Antibailout parties in sum will get the parliamentary majority (unless ND surpasses SYRIZA, which is increasingly unlikely). The result will likely be a Weimar style mess (feuding antisystem parties have a majority among themselves). If ANEL passes the barrier, it can form some kind of a coalition with SYRIZA. KKE will surely get some seats, but I think it officially excludes any coalitions with anyone, even SYRIZA (correct me if wrong).

KKE do loathe Syriza, but I wonder if they will offer supply and confidence votes.

The other worry, of course, is that a President still needs to be picked with a supermajority. Will the left have enough votes to support a Syriza nominee?

The President has very little power. Nominating a centrist or a non-political figure should be unproblematic if Syriza wins.

DIMAR leader Fotis Kouvelis was mentioned as a possible compromise candidate before the recent election and might be a good compromise candidate again. Even if Syriza and DIMAR could not agree on a joint list they seem to be on good terms now.

Polls indicate ND + XA + ANEL (if they get in) would get around 100. Leaving 200 centre-left + left. Syriza gets around 142-145, Potami 22-25, Pasok 12+, KKE 16-18.

Syriza, Pasok and Potami would likely be able to elect a president and there is no reason to think KKE would block a Syriza nominated candidate.

A Syriza win with min. 120 seats to ND/XA, or even ND/XA/ANEL, is a very unlikely scenario.

[Philip Weisler]

Please try not to be rude OK (''Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts'').  The fact was worth of mentioning in that context, even here, not everyone is a specialist in Greek politics. To claim my post was illegitimate because I mention wellknown things is as ridiculous as to claim your own previous post mentioning obvious truths was unconstructive (''The President has very little power. Nominating a centrist or a non-political figure should be unproblematic if Syriza wins'')

There are some other points, where I have an opinion differeing from yours. I will address these later.

Welcome to the forum!

It is best not to assume people around here are naive or ignorant about the issues. Many posters are quite savvy.

Overall I think your evaluation is a bit dated (2012/13-style).

I would like to emphasize that the main cleavage in Greek politics since the crisis is not right-left in the traditional (or American) sense.

Most posters around here are well aware of those things, but you are being a bit simplistic. The left-right divide does play a role in something like electing a president since Syriza needs a 60% majority from parties willing to not sabotage it, which would be left and centre-left + maybe ANEL.

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First one is obvious. Second one not. Syriza in alliance with either Potami or Pasok is the most likely, despite all the tough talk on both sides. KKE hates Syriza, but are unlikely to block a Syriza presidential nominee - which was the topic at hand.

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That is obvious and no one has said otherwise.

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That is way too simplistic. First, Syriza also wants to remain in the Eurozone. Second, those parties also share some common values. Third, some kind of compromise will have to be made in order for the country to function.

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It is also very right wing on a number of areas (immigration, law and order, role of the church, defense). Syriza and ANEL can cooperate in trolling the pro-austerity parties. They will never govern together.

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Whoever gets the bonus gets to form the government. The other parties will have to adjust to that, so this is simplistic. If ND wins the bonus the centrist parties (Potami and Pasok) will work with them. Kinima is explicitly made to break with Pasoks ND support and Papandreou would be toast if he went back to working with them. Dimar has been in coalition talks with Syriza and will not get back to working with ND. ND has been moving to the right and working with them is increasingly toxic for the centre-left.

If Syriza gets the bonus they are in the drivers seat and the centrist parties will need to negotiate.

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Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts.

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- Syriza has been involved in a moderation process over the past couple of years preparing for government and the most likely result will be some kind of left/centre-left compromise.

- An ANEL-Syriza coalition is an impossibility. ANEL is not government material in any way.

- Yes, KKE excludes coalitions. The issue is if they will provide tacit support when push comes to shove. Opinions about this differ. I am sceptical, others less so.

[Philip Weisler]

''SYRIZA should stay as far away from ANEL as possible'' May-be it's just me as a ''right-of-centre'' type of a guy but I'm personally much more concerned about SYRIZA, which includes some outright communist and lots of other far-left folks than about ANEL which was an anti-austerity break-away from the mainstream conservatives.

She's a good example of why SYRIZA should stay as far away from ANEL as possible.  From what I understand she was the vice president of ANEL and one of their most popular MPs until she left them.  ANTARSYA claims that she tried to join their party but they rejected her application, which makes SYRIZA look even worse IMO.

SYRIZA MEP Dim. Papadimoulis by the way on his twitter account requested that SYRIZA candidates not improvise when they don't know an issue very well.

[Philip Weisler]

Stop posting personally motivated comments here, ok?

''Since people generally have a high knowledge level here it is best not to state basic facts ("Golden Dawn is a Neo-Nazi party") as if you were telling a hitherto unknown secret. ''

According to this logic lots of your own posts, where you e.g. state obvious facts such as ''The President has very little power. Nominating a centrist or a non-political figure should be unproblematic if Syriza wins'' become illegitimate.

If you disagree with my conduct, please contact a neutral admin, but let's stop this discussion here, ok?

Please try not to be rude OK (''Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts'').  The fact was worth of mentioning in that context, even here, not everyone is a specialist in Greek politics. There are some other points, where I have an opinion differing from yours. I will address these later.

I was not trying to be rude, but it was your first post on the forum and as a new poster you will be better received and get more enjoyment out of your time on Atlas if you follow certain well established norms.

You made a "let me tell you how it really is" post on the seventh page of a thread, which comes of as arrogant since it implies that all previous posts are written by ignoramuses who needs to be enlightened (+ your image of Greek politics seems dated). The general convention on the board is that you can make an opening post about basic facts if you create a thread or early in a new thread if the thread creator hasn't done it after a week or so (best to give posters a chance to return to their threads). Since people generally have a high knowledge level here it is best not to state basic facts ("Golden Dawn is a Neo-Nazi party") as if you were telling a hitherto unknown secret.

Try reading the entire thread from the start + the Greece General thread on the IG board to get a feel of the general level of knowledge and what sort of positions people have on the issues before reentering the debate. You will become a much better and more valued poster if you familiarize yourself with these things.

Also, only quote posts if you use and/or refer to the content in your argument and even then it is generally best just to quote relevant parts of a post. There is no need to quote an entire long post if you just address a post or poster on a more general level. When you quote the established practice is to place longer quotes in the start of your post. It looks weird quoting an entire post after you made your argument.

And: I meant it when I said welcome to the forum.

[Philip Weisler]

There were some points were I disagreed with Charlotte's evaluation.

''That is way too simplistic. First, Syriza also wants to remain in the Eurozone. Second, those parties also share some common values. Third, some kind of compromise will have to be made in order for the country to function.''

There are cases in politics, where it's ''either A or B'', i.e. simply not much room for the compromise. If SYRIZA forms the government and is really gonna pursue the policies they've proposed to the people, then - as commentators well-versed in economy argue - the consequence is default and leaving the eurozone. Has anyone already mentioned here that the small Finland's stance is uncompromising, i.e. no more forgiving the debts for Greece. If PASOK or Potami still jump on the bandwagon of SYRIZA with these declared future policies, then it's not a compromise, but a U-turn from their side.

''Dimar has been in coalition talks with Syriza and will not get back to working with ND. ND has been moving to the right and working with them is increasingly toxic for the centre-left.''

I don't know what you mean with ND becoming more right-wing. What we do know, however, is that actually Greece economic situation is better now than in 2012, when Samaras cabinet was formed with the support from PASOK and DIMAR. Obviously it would be easier for a leftist party to support a right-wing government while the economy is showing sign of recovery.

[Philip Weisler]

I wouldn't take for granted the point some people are underscoring here that some ND right-wingers who may have very socially conservative or anti-immigration views could be a major obstacle. I mean, in November 2011 the Greeks managed to form a pro-bailout coalition with even LAOS (!) represented in it. And LAOS is surely further to the right than ANEL, let alone ND.

The socially conservative views of some ND folks is simply not gonna be a major obstacle this time. The election is not about it this time. In some Western countries like, say, Holland, the immigration question is a very serious issue (we could see PVV forming a coalition with D'66 based on economic views only, but it ain't gonna happen as social issues are more prominent in Holland).

I don't see why ND-The River wouldn't work. Limiting immigration is not an inherently fascistic position. As long as ND don't call the people "darkies" The River should be accepting of it.

[Philip Weisler]

I disagree with Charlotte's suggestion that I have rather outdated views.

The election is first and foremost about two choices: a) continuing with the austerity course dictated by the memorandum and agreements with the Greek creditors, without whose money the country would be bankrupt within a couple of months or b) scrapping the memorandum as proposed by SYRIZA and smaller anti-austeriy parties. According to commentators across the spectrum (for an overview, try ''Greek Euro Exit Would Be A Benefit, So Why Is Samaras Warning Of The Risk?'' in Forbes, I can't add hyperlinks), this choice will inevitably lead to sovereign debt default and an exit from the eurozone. That SYRIZA is paying lip-service to ''keeping the euro'' is irrelevant here and I'd be surprised if an experienced commentator like Charlotte would buy into that. How is this chance compatible with your claim that ''ND can no longer scare moderate voters with irresponsible Syria and chaos as easily as before and need new attack lins.''? Of course it scares people who adhere to the view that even a very slow and difficult recovery is better than GREXIT!

It's not so much about being left or right, but rather, differing alternatives on how to get the economy back on track again. And needless to say, in a country where poverty is rampant and lots of children have nothing to eat, this is the ultimate question atm.

Of course, SYRIZA can renege on its promises, such as higher social spending and creating new jobs in the public sector (for which there's of course no money under the current order). That's possible (though I personally think they won't do it). I will discuss the way SYRIZA can proceed while in government in a separate post.

This leaves us the immigration question again. Charlotte was quite right when she pointed out that the islamic terrorist attack can have repercussions in politics (''The Charlie Hebdo attack influences people's view of the world''). However, there have been no major repercussions in Greek politics yet, as evident from the fact that anti-immigration parties like XA, ANEL and LAOS are polling (cf. ''Opinion polling for the Greek legislative election, 2015'' on Wikipedia) just as poorly as they've been doing for many many months. You are overestimating this issue.

[Philip Weisler]

It's kinda funny that someone would label ANEL as ''too crazy'' for SYRIZA. The former is an anti-austerity break-away from the mainstream conservatives, the latter a break-away from the Communist Party and still harbors people and factions that openly advocate Communism of various tendencies (Maoists, Trotskyists etc.).

Of course, there is the immigration issue, however, I firmly refuse to beg pardon for my view, that controlling open-borders immigration is not necessarily bad.

[Philip Weisler]

Sorry, but I do know what I'm talking about. The main faction of today's SYRIZA (formed in 2004) is Synaspismos, which emerged as a coalition of communist movements (the biggest components were the two Greek Communist Parties) in the 1980s. The KKE left the coalition in 1991 as Neo-Stalinists took this party over.

Of course this is simplified,  but (most of) SYRIZA represents the more eurocommunist tendency of the Greek Communist movement. You can read about it on Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_of_Left,_of_Movements_and_Ecology#Coalition.2C_late_1980s.E2.80.931991).

It's kinda funny that anyone would label ANEL as ''too crazy'' for SYRIZA. The former is an anti-austerity break-away from the mainstream conservatives, the latter a break-away from the Communist Party that still includes people who openly advocate Communism in a variety of its tendencies (Maoists, Trotskyists etc.).  

SYRIZA is a break-away from KKE?  That's news to me.  I don't mean to offend you but you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.  And yes Kammenos is a clown.  

[Philip Weisler]

I'd be more careful with ''epithets'' like ''ignorant people'' etc. while advancing a very odd line.

For example, you forget that the KKE purged lots of its cadres around 1991 and the article I linked says, that the ''renewing part of KKE'' joined SYN. And as another forum member just said, EAR (Greek Left), was a successor to Communist Party of Greece, Interior (KKE-Interior).

They were the moderate/sane wing of the Commies, yes.

I love it when ignorant people pretend to know what they're talking about.

[Philip Weisler]

''Will you admit that your initial statement was wrong?''

I can't see how the points made by you (as well as Sibboleth) could be seen to conflict my summary, that SYRIZA is heir to the moderate communist tendency? Of course, like ANEL which immediately attracted one or two PASOK MPs is not 100% ex-ND, SYRIZA is not 100% ex-KKE, but that's exactly where its roots are, i.e. the more moderate, more cooperative, more eurocommunist tendencies of the old KKE as well as various other communist groups.

I'd be more careful with ''epithets'' like ''ignorant people'' etc. while advancing a very odd line.

For example, you forget that the KKE purged lots of its cadres around 1991 and the article I linked says, that the ''renewing part of KKE'' joined SYN. And as another forum member just said, EAR (Greek Left), was a successor to Communist Party of Greece, Interior (KKE-Interior).

They were the moderate/sane wing of the Commies, yes.

I love it when ignorant people pretend to know what they're talking about.

Will you admit that your initial statement was wrong?

[Philip Weisler]

To be honest I composed a longish reply for you but lost it as the log-in function has been messing this evening. The sources should be enough actually. No I don't think I was wrong when I characterized SYRIZA as a ''break-away from the communist party'', it's simplification like ''ANEL as break-away from the ND''. I'd link to academia.edu/1922581/Creating_The_Scarecrow_The_2004_Athens_Olympic_Games_and_the_Greek_Financial_Crisis, opendemocracy.net/aristos-doxiadis-manos-matsaganis/national-populism-and-xenophobia-in-greece (ok, blog but uses my term in the same context), grammatikhilfe.com/europeanInstitute/research/hellenicObservatory/pdf/4th_%20Symposium/PAPERS_PPS/POLITICAL%20PARTIES%20II/ELEFTHERIOU.pdf

''Will you admit that your initial statement was wrong?''

I can't see how the points made by you (as well as Sibboleth) could be seen to conflict my summary, that SYRIZA is heir to the moderate communist tendency? Of course, like ANEL which immediately attracted one or two PASOK MPs is not 100% ex-ND, SYRIZA is not 100% ex-KKE, but that's exactly where its roots are, i.e. the more moderate, more cooperative, more eurocommunist tendencies of the old KKE as well as various other communist groups.

That's not what you said.  The statement that I objected to is that SYRIZA is a KKE break-away party.


ETA: Even this statement is inaccurate.  SYRIZA isn't the heir to moderate communist tendencies.  Eurocommunists weren't necessarily the moderates.  What defined them was their rejection of Soviet-style dictatorships and their more liberal social views.  So they were quite different than what we usually describe as communists.

[Philip Weisler]

@Charlotte

That's an interesting post. I know, ANEL has been hyping ''teh evil Germanz'' conspiracy theories. Nevertheless, in the European Parliament their MEP sits in the mainstream Conservative faction.

Did I use Google in the wrong way but I didn't get any English hits for ''Independent Greeks''+NWO. Is the belief in such nonsense that prevalent among the party?

''Whereas former Communists going towards the center are often quite reasonable and moderate politicians. There are plenty of examples of this in postwar European political history''

Yes, once they give up their former views. The Polish SDL and related movements have been quite harmless. DIMAR also consists of ''nice guys'' it seems. As for those who sincerely claim Marx's revolutionary ideas are still relevant and should still be put into practise, then I wouldn't characterize any of those as moderate. I mean, a commie who gives up Marxism-Leninism obviously can be a ''moderate'', but he is not a communist any more in that case.

[Philip Weisler]

Well you shouldn't start shouting over semantic games.

I'll illustrate with a quote by you:

''KKE left the coalition in 1991 and Synaspismos is therefore what was once EAR.  So yes, your statement is wrong.''

No, strictly speaking this (''Synaspismos is therefore what was once EAR'') is completely wrong as 2/5 of KKE cadres plus half
the Political Bureau and Central Committee were ousted from the party and entered Synaspismos in 1991.

[Philip Weisler]

I can understand when a more left-wing person claims AfD is ''dangerously rightist'' or something but mr. Cameron is completely harmless for you. Has he already spoken on the Charlie massacre ''having nothing to do with Islam''? He sure will. He may be still somewhat euroskeptic, after all he leads the party of Thatcher, however, otherwise Cameron is quite similar to CDU or UMP.

 Nevertheless, in the European Parliament their MEP sits in the mainstream Conservative faction.

no, ANEL sits in the ECR fraction, togehter with f.e. the british conservatives and the ge4rman AfD.

another point: when you say, someone who breaks with ML cannot be described as a communist anymore, this does simply show that you do not know good about the history and the flowers of the communist movement.

rotfront,

y

[Philip Weisler]

Depends on how we're gonna define mainstream of course. EPP has many more MEPs. In my opinion, as a whole, both ECR and EPP can be seen as mainstream conservative, as opposed to smaller, more radically right-wing/anti-EU groups. Tories in the UK and Fianna Fáil in Ireland have always been mainstream. Some smaller Eastern European member parties of ECR may not be mainstream. But remember, the controversial Fidesz still sits with the EPP.

I can understand when a more left-wing person claims AfD is ''dangerously rightist'' or something but mr. Cameron

 I just wanted to state that ecr is not the mainstream conservative faction in EP.
 

[Philip Weisler]

FF has never been ideologically liberal, its ALDE membership is surely tactical. FG was already in the EPP so FF had to choose another faction. Also, FF has generally been a bit to the left of FG in economic matters. Now, I normally wouldn't recommend Political Compass, but I think they are right here (politicalcompass.org/ireland2011). FF used to sit together with French Gaullists in the EP (news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3224666.stm).

To be pedantic, Fianna Fáil the party is still in ALDE. It's just that its only MEP fell out with ALDE and jumped to ECR, much to the displeasure of a national leadership which is trying to position itself domestically as being centre-left (or at least to the left of FG).

[Philip Weisler]

See ''To Potami leader to set out coalition terms'' in Kathimerini (ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_20/01/2015_546383):

To Potami leader Stavros Theodorakis is on Wednesday expected to say that he will not consider working with SYRIZA after the elections unless the leftists agree to conclude the pending troika review before launching any discussion with Greece’s lenders about debt relief.

I would expect Potami to surge, were it not for the plurality bonus. As you say, I think moderates will pick Syriza - not because they are particularly enamoured with leftists, but to vote against the ECB.

EDIT: Today's article (ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_21/01/2015_546396):

To Potami will not take part in a government which will not support Greece's position within Europe, the center-left party's founder and head Stavros Theodorakis, said during a press conference in Athens on Wednesday.

As I previously argued, I'd expect Potami to ally with ND and PASOK on matters related to the Greek ''European perspective''. They're going to be pro-bailout.

[Philip Weisler]

I'm actually also hoping SYRIZA wins, preferably with no more than 150 seats . There will be a clear majority of anti-system parties and I'd like to see some kind of coalition between SYRIZA and ANEL. I've considered for a long time that a Greek default and return to the drachma would be a better option.

It seems like a sound position, Greece should turn this page before starting a new one.
At this point my favorite outcome for this election is a Syriza + To Potami coalition.

When are the last polls published?

[Philip Weisler]

@Crabcake: As the sources said, Potami is open for a coalition with SYRIZA only in case they'll give up their left-wing populist line and essentially find a compromise with the troika. Should SYRIZA choose this course of action, they risk with a collapse of support similar to that experienced by PASOK since 2011.

EDIT: Remember, even DIMAR ''cobbled together'' an alliance with ND+PASOK. And DIMAR was clearly a left-wing (albeit very pro-euro) party, unlike Potami that has electoral cooperation with the neoliberal Drasi.

@Philip, do you really expect is Syriza get the 50 seat bonus (and they probably will), To Potami will try to cobble together with a some sort of ND-PASOK alliance with no way near a majority?

They want to be in government and will do a deal with either party that wins the bonus - which looks like Syriza if the polls are doing good and people are being honest in their responses. That said, such a government possibly won't last a full term - either due to To Potami pulling out or (more likely) defectional disorder among Syriza.

Venizelos has just said he is open to PASOK being in a Syriza led government as has Kammenos of ANEL.

[Philip Weisler]

Which statement or policy reveals such a ''swing to the right''? All this talk about ND getting ultra right-wing looks like scaremongering as of now.

EDT: In my opinion, ND generally suits well for ''moderate liberal'' middle class people, the problem however is, that their economic policy will not succeed. Lots of commentators say GREXIT is the preferred option.

Now that I've seen how far to the right Samaras has swung his party, I am definitely in the camp of those who say this will be a Syriza landslide. Any moderate liberal Greek is probably staying at home today, packing his bags and looking for jobs elsewhere online.

[Philip Weisler]

Yep, just read about it on Greekreporter: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/01/26/greece-greek-coalition-new-government-alexis-tsipras/. Funny how some of our ''unquestionable experts'' were just some days ago categorically arguing that SYRIZA will never ever form a coalition with ''teh bad rightist'' ANEL. Just look at some pages backwards  ;-)

Even if they eventually fail to form a coalition the fact that they started consultations immediately after the election says something.

It's official: ANEL is entering a coalition with SYRIZA

Edit- reports are that Tsipras will also be speaking with Potami and KKE as well

[Philip Weisler]

The thing is, in some countries the economic left-right axis is more important, in some others the libertarian-authoritarian - I'd personally use the term ''liberal-conservative'' - axis is more prominent. The latter seems to be the case in well-off countries of Northern Europe. Like Sweden. As I tried to argue before, this axis is not dominant in Greece as of now.

But you can take the Netherlands until Cabinet Kok I (1994-1998) as an example of economic axis being more important. The Christian Democratic parties were economically centrist and governed with either the Party of Labour on the left or with the economically liberal VVD on the right. Only in 1994 could the socially liberal parties from the left and right form a coalition. According to Wikipedia:

The cabinet started processes of liberalisation which were completed by the same coalition in the following cabinet: the legalisation of prostitution in 2000, same-sex marriage in 2001 and Euthanasia in 2002.

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

[Philip Weisler]

@Charlotte

I hope your world did not collapse because of that ''wrong decision'' that revealed lots of the discussion here about SYRIZA+Potami etc as what it was - wishful thinking .

Yeah, there are bound to be defections and they needed a buffer, but it was still a hasty and almost certainly wrong decision.

[Philip Weisler]

This is exactly why I doubt that the sides could reach a real compromise such as 50% write-off. In general of course it is better to get 50% of your money back as opposed to nothing at all, but such a write-off would immediately give ammunition to PODEMOS in Spain etc. - ''if SYRIZA could, we'll make it as well''. And it's election year in Spain and Portugal . So I think Brussels will rather let Greece default and expel Greece from the Eurozone. A kind of a warning to others, after all.

It is more to convince the Germans that they might really be crazy, in order to extract more concessions.  Not sure this will work since giving concessions to the Greeks would probably trigger demands from other beleaguered southern economies for similar relief.