Greek election - January 25th 2015

[ag]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

Why should there be a clash? Greece should be congratulated with, finally, achieving a political decision to leave the euro and the details should be peaceably worked out. Drachma will be reintroduced and rapidly devalued. EU, hopefully, would provide emergency humanitarian support for a few years and then Greece will resume its growth and development from where it had been in the early 1990s. 

[ag]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

Why should there be a clash? Greece should be congratulated with, finally, achieving a political decision to leave the euro and the details should be peaceably worked out. Drachma will be reintroduced and rapidly devalued. EU, hopefully, would provide emergency humanitarian support for a few years and then Greece will resume its growth and development from where it had been in the early 1990s. 

Well, the clash is that Greece thinks that by the vote today they can achieve a debt write-down without affecting everything else (being in Euro, access to capital markets etc etc) while those who hold that debt does not see it that way.  We will see who blinks first.  I implore the troika to hold firm and not allow this. 

Greeks do not hold many cards at this point. They should concentrate on negotiating an EU aid package to be implemented after reintroduction of the drachma - they could appeal to humanitarian values of their EU partners on that one. If they try to negotiate a debt write-off while staying in the euro, they will spend a long time negotiating, I am afraid. And if they simply stop paying... well, it will be most painfull - for the Greeks.

[ag]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

Why should there be a clash? Greece should be congratulated with, finally, achieving a political decision to leave the euro and the details should be peaceably worked out. Drachma will be reintroduced and rapidly devalued. EU, hopefully, would provide emergency humanitarian support for a few years and then Greece will resume its growth and development from where it had been in the early 1990s. 

Well, the clash is that Greece thinks that by the vote today they can achieve a debt write-down without affecting everything else (being in Euro, access to capital markets etc etc) while those who hold that debt does not see it that way.  We will see who blinks first.  I implore the troika to hold firm and not allow this. 

But it's not in the interests of Germany. If Greece can leave, other countries can leave and they want to keep France and Netherlands and etc as vassal states.

Do you seriously think France and Netherlands would WANT to leave?

Greece has to leave, because it, pretty much, has no options. It should not have been allowed in, in the first place - and staying in is extraordinarily painfull. It would, in fact, be better off outside. I have hard time seeing the Dutch and French governments wanting to emulate their example for no good reason, though )

[ag]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

Why should there be a clash? Greece should be congratulated with, finally, achieving a political decision to leave the euro and the details should be peaceably worked out. Drachma will be reintroduced and rapidly devalued. EU, hopefully, would provide emergency humanitarian support for a few years and then Greece will resume its growth and development from where it had been in the early 1990s. 

Well, the clash is that Greece thinks that by the vote today they can achieve a debt write-down without affecting everything else (being in Euro, access to capital markets etc etc) while those who hold that debt does not see it that way.  We will see who blinks first.  I implore the troika to hold firm and not allow this. 

But it's not in the interests of Germany. If Greece can leave, other countries can leave and they want to keep France and Netherlands and etc as vassal states.

Do you seriously think France and Netherlands would WANT to leave?

Greece has to leave, because it, pretty much, has no options. It should not have been allowed in, in the first place - and staying in is extraordinarily painfull. It would, in fact, be better off outside. I have hard time seeing the Dutch and French governments wanting to emulate their example for no good reason, though )

France isn't going well at all and Euro/Europe/Germany/Merkel is a very popular scapegoat.

So, a French government would be willing to commit suicide in order to blame Merkel/Germans for it?

Getting out of the euro isn't going to be pretty - not for the Greeks, not for the French. It is just that for the Greeks, staying might be worse.

[ag]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

I think it is when it takes place on the same day that the new SYRIZA regime is saying that Germany will have to pay war reparations for WWII and that Greece should get debt forgiveness like Germany did after WWII.  By its acts and words it tries to tie the current German regime to the WWII German regime which obviously is seen as provocative by the current German government.

But they can't afford to complain about it, especially one day before the 70th anniversary of Auschwiss closure.

Nobody is going to complain. Germans would be the last ones to complain: they would share the pain and the commemoration.

But it is the new Greek government that needs something from Germany, not the other way around. And if the new PM gets into the habbit of implicitly comparing Merkel to Hitler, he will not be any more likely to get what he needs.