Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Tender Branson]

So, Sweden off and Greece on ?

OK.

Hopefully SYRIZA (even if they come out on top) will be sidelined after the election.

The last thing Greece needs now is a leftist "experiment".

[Tender Branson]

So, Sweden off and Greece on ?

OK.

Hopefully SYRIZA (even if they come out on top) will be sidelined after the election.

The last thing Greece needs now is a leftist "experiment".

Surprised you would say that.

Not really.

A (far)-left government only works in stable societies (such as Thüringen, Brandenburg).

Establishing one in a country that just drove into a wall like Greece is a recipe for another catastrophe.

[Tender Branson]

Interview with Syrizas chief economist (who is educated in Germany of all places..). Growth through stimulus of the purchasing power of lower income groups, but no financing through debt/no deficits. Those who can shall pay, so "tax the rich". Syriza are fiscal conservatives

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/yiannis-milios-syriza-will-not-run-deficits

Interesting. Thanks for the link. I might give them a shot after all, if they really follow these plans - even after the election and not just before it.

[Tender Branson]

Is there already some initial polling on the MDS ?

And how likely is it that it will draw some potential SYRIZA voters ?

[Tender Branson]

The pollster "Marc" seems to be the most accurate (I looked at the final polls ahead of the last few elections).

"Marc" currently shows SYRIZA ahead by ca. 3%

[Tender Branson]

Got a link?

The Wikipedia polling pages from the last few elections.

[Tender Branson]

Does Greece still have that 2-week ban on poll-publishing before an election ?

If yes, the last polls should be out by Sunday.

[Tender Branson]

Does Greece still have that 2-week ban on poll-publishing before an election ?

If yes, the last polls should be out by Sunday.

Yes.

But we are now within that 2-week period and the Univ. of Macedonia just released a poll that was done until yesterday ...

(I'm not sure what "Macedonia" means here: The Greek region of Macedonia or a university that is based in the country Macedonia).

[Tender Branson]

Does Greece still have that 2-week ban on poll-publishing before an election ?

If yes, the last polls should be out by Sunday.

Yes.

But we are now within that 2-week period and the Univ. of Macedonia just released a poll that was done until yesterday ...

(I'm not sure what "Macedonia" means here: The Greek region of Macedonia or a university that is based in the country Macedonia).

It is in Thessaloniki

Ah, thx. So what happens to them, now that they published a poll during the "ban time" ?

Fine ?

Or is that another Greek thing that ends up non-enforced (like mandatory voting) ?

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

Why? ND hasn't been ahead since May and recent polls show Syriza increasing their margin.

Probably expecting a last minute "devil you know" feeling from voters. Not that I agree, but I see the logic.

FT profiles the fate of the political dynasties of Greece - the Karamanlis, Mitsotakis and Papandreou families . The Mitsotakis seem to be doing well, Karamanlis a mixed bag and it is probably the end of the line for Georgios' clan.

Don't know, just a guess. Maybe ND manages to mobilize in the final few days or on election day.

Maybe Syriza wins big.

Never did a Greek prediction before (I guess).

[Tender Branson]

That late ND-surge doesn't seem to materialize (in fact, the opposite thing happens).

My new prediction:

38% SYRIZA
28% ND
  8% Potami
  7% XA
  5% KKE
  4% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 70%

[Tender Branson]

When do polls close and any links to results as they come in ?

From what I remember, Greek polling stations open at 6am and close at 6pm.

[Tender Branson]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Phil, I seriously doubt that.

The chances right now that SYRIZA wins in a landslide (8%+ or 10%+) tomorrow are higher than ND winning.

[Tender Branson]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Phil, I seriously doubt that.

The chances right now that SYRIZA wins in a landslide (8%+ or 10%+) tomorrow are higher than ND winning.

But... Just 3 days ago you predicted a ND win!

That's not the same: It was my 1st prediction of the election when polls showed a still tight race (SYRIZA ahead by 2-4%) and then changed it to a big SYRIZA-win (because the final polls showed an increasing margin). Phil's post was much clearer about a win for ND.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Polls are open from 7am to 7pm local time.

That's 6pm CET and noon in the US (east coast).

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...

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http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_25/01/2015_546503

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http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_21/01/2015_546422

[Tender Branson]

exit poll

An "exit poll" conducted several hours before polls close is a joke.

[Tender Branson]

An exit poll will be published by all TV networks at 7 PM. That is the only credible one.

Why 7pm?  I thought the polls close at 6pm?

7pm local time. Which is 6pm here in Central/Western Europe and noon in NY.

[Tender Branson]

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"called up to vote"? Does Greece have mandatory voting?

Greece has mandatory voting, on paper. It's not enforced at all though.

[Tender Branson]

Exit Poll in 10 minutes.

Live streams:

http://www.ertopen.com/tv

http://www.megatv.com/megaekloges2015/default.asp?catid=27270

http://www.alphatv.gr/webtv/live

[Tender Branson]

LOL, the exit poll is basically my prediction.

[Tender Branson]

What does "exit poll 75%" mean though ?

75% turnout ?

[Tender Branson]

I slightly overestimated ND (27.5% vs. 25% in the exit poll).

My 27.5% for ND was still the best prediction by anyone (you guys all had them above 28% and mostly above 30%) ...

I nailed SYRIZA though and most of the other parties, except Kinima (3% vs. 2.5% in the exit poll).

[Tender Branson]

Another exit poll (Palmos):

[Tender Branson]

And if the exit polls hold, congrats Tender.

Yeah, hopefully.

It would mean that my Greek predictions are much better than my Austrian ones.