Greek election - January 25th 2015

[MaxQue]

Also:

"However the risk very much remains of the PASOK vote (which is currently polling at around 5%) simply being split down the middle between the remains of PASOK and Papandreou’s new party. That would leave both parties out of parliament (at least 3% of the vote is required for parties to elect MPs to parliament)."

Would be hilarious if that happened.

Well, perhaps Papandreou will really bring change. Him and his family being irrelevent and outside Parliament. That would be huge change.

[MaxQue]

They are obviously referring to the veiled (or in some cases very direct) threats by EU and German officials of Greece exiting the Eurozone if SYRIZA is elected.  And I couldn't agree more with them.  If Greece is still an independent country they should be allowed to vote for whoever is best for them, not for Merkel or Germany.

Well, Germany and the rest of the eurozone share a currency with Greece and a number of countries have invested a lot of money in ensuring the prevention of a complete Greek default (i.e. a complete restructuring of the debt would have serious consequences for Germany's balance sheet as well). So it's perfectly natural and normal for these leaders to have a position on what is transpiring in Greece. Moreover, it's sensible to remind the Greek electorate that Syriza's plans (debt write offs + ECB QE to fund Syriza's budgetary vision) won't come to fruition.

I'm afraid that you are missing something with those massive loans, mostly granted by the ECB, the EU and the IMF (only a tiny share came directly from Germany).

And where do you think the EU or ECB get their money from?

Partly from Germany, but clearly under 50%. So,Merkel should stop monopolising all Europe for her. You lost WWI, you lost WWII and you won't be allowed to rule Europe.

[MaxQue]

There really is no such thing as "national sovereignty" in the EU of 2015 anymore.

Wow.  Just wow.

Where have you been these past few decades? Of course you can claim that every country can theoretically leave the EU now (so they do hold the reigns of power in a nuclear option sense) but when it comes to the day to day running of the EU and its member states national sovereignty has been curtailed.

Hence why it's important to inflict as much defeats as possible to neoliberal Eurocrats and German business interests.

[MaxQue]

There is also the possibility of luring a couple of defectors to Syriza and who says Pasok would risk another election. It would be a huge gamble.

I don't think Pasok would do that immediately. But why would they support a party which didn't want to govern with them? After a while I think they'll be tempted to reject most proposals by a minority Syriza government.

I would bet on defections for PASOK MPs, rather than support from PASOK. Some people who were there for the perks of power won't be interested by staying in the rumbles of the party.

[MaxQue]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

Why should there be a clash? Greece should be congratulated with, finally, achieving a political decision to leave the euro and the details should be peaceably worked out. Drachma will be reintroduced and rapidly devalued. EU, hopefully, would provide emergency humanitarian support for a few years and then Greece will resume its growth and development from where it had been in the early 1990s. 

Well, the clash is that Greece thinks that by the vote today they can achieve a debt write-down without affecting everything else (being in Euro, access to capital markets etc etc) while those who hold that debt does not see it that way.  We will see who blinks first.  I implore the troika to hold firm and not allow this. 

But it's not in the interests of Germany. If Greece can leave, other countries can leave and they want to keep France and Netherlands and etc as vassal states.

[MaxQue]

Now begins the inevitable clash between the Teutonic troika and people's democracy. My solidarity is with the latter.

Why should there be a clash? Greece should be congratulated with, finally, achieving a political decision to leave the euro and the details should be peaceably worked out. Drachma will be reintroduced and rapidly devalued. EU, hopefully, would provide emergency humanitarian support for a few years and then Greece will resume its growth and development from where it had been in the early 1990s. 

Well, the clash is that Greece thinks that by the vote today they can achieve a debt write-down without affecting everything else (being in Euro, access to capital markets etc etc) while those who hold that debt does not see it that way.  We will see who blinks first.  I implore the troika to hold firm and not allow this. 

But it's not in the interests of Germany. If Greece can leave, other countries can leave and they want to keep France and Netherlands and etc as vassal states.

Do you seriously think France and Netherlands would WANT to leave?

Greece has to leave, because it, pretty much, has no options. It should not have been allowed in, in the first place - and staying in is extraordinarily painfull. It would, in fact, be better off outside. I have hard time seeing the Dutch and French governments wanting to emulate their example for no good reason, though )

France isn't going well at all and Euro/Europe/Germany/Merkel is a very popular scapegoat.

[MaxQue]

Wow... Golden Dawn not only survived the crackdown against them, they only lost one seat. I don't know whether to be impressed, scared or surprised.

Let us not overlook the satisfaction that the fascist party actually lost 50,000 votes in a situation of economical crisis and paranoia against the almighty banks-Troika-Merkel et al. I think we can nearly all agree on this one particular satisfaction tonight.

Being the third (or tied for the third) largest party in parliament is still nothing to sneeze at, though. Makes me wonder, if control the government came down to a coalition with Golden Dawn, would anyone do it?

I doubt it, unless the party doing it wants to suffer a PASOK-like fate. And in the current situation, they are not useful at all.

[MaxQue]

Kalentzi is the place from where the Papandreou familly comes from.

[MaxQue]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

I think it is when it takes place on the same day that the new SYRIZA regime is saying that Germany will have to pay war reparations for WWII and that Greece should get debt forgiveness like Germany did after WWII.  By its acts and words it tries to tie the current German regime to the WWII German regime which obviously is seen as provocative by the current German government.

But they can't afford to complain about it, especially one day before the 70th anniversary of Auschwiss closure.

[MaxQue]

Actually, I believe the National Front also calls for proportional representation and I believe Direct Democracy, which Syriza does.  I'm guessing it would also support many aspects of Syriza's foreign policy, especially avoidance of foreign entanglements at the behest of the US.

Oh, no, don't search that far. FN is anti-establishment as is Syriza. FN roots for all anti-establisment parties, because they hope to replicated their success.