Greek election - January 25th 2015

[justfollowingtheelections]

University of Texas Economics Professor James Galbraith sent the following message to Tsipras:

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[justfollowingtheelections]

Papandreou is starting his own movement. I think he just realises that he'll be low on the PASOK list so he's saving face while he still can. Perhaps his name alone will carry him across the line, but I really don't see how PASOK, DIMAR, The Reformists, To Potami and the Papandreou Party can all co-exist.

Potami and the Reformists are merging.

Papandreou de facto declared his intent to go solo almost a month ago before the election seemed inevitable. I think his party will do significantly better than (rump-)Pasok.

DIMAR is a non-entity by now. They try to "merge" with Syriza, but are still setting unrealistic demands (keeping separate structure and policy concessions) as if they had any bargaining position.

I wonder where DIMAR got their support from in the first place? They had a pretty similar programme to Syriza save the bailout concession demands and have Syriza-DNA in them. The collapse of PASOK no doubt played a part but I wonder how they managed to profit ahead of other moderate-cum-radical left parties in Greece. Do they have traditional strongholds or family allegiances that date back to the Civil War and the ELAS factions?

Well initially when DIMAR split off from SYRIZA in some polls they appeared to be challenging PASOK for second place, at a time when no one could imagine a third party beating PASOK or ND.  They appeared to be the "responsible" leftist party that knew how to get things done and would do what it takes at a time when SYRIZA was being accused by the right and the center of being the party responsible for a lot of the "bad" incidents that occurred during the anti-austerity demonstrations and for supporting left-wing terrorism.  

Eventually the reason SYRIZA was able to rise to 2nd place in the May '09 elections (IMO at least, and my opinion is based on the significant amount of research I have done on the issue) was because it had a better ground game and was able to draw voters (and most importantly organizers) from the "aganaktismenoi" movement.  SYRIZA was able to elect quite a few MPs in their 20s and 30s that weren't tv personalities or came from rich or political families which was usually the case with all fresh faces elected by ND or PASOK.  Tsipras also tried to convey a positive, left-wing alternative message which I guess resonated with a lot of voters tired of hardliners and cynicism.
DIMAR on the other hand appeared to be more of an establishment party (which some voters liked) without the stench of corruption that PASOK had, but I guess their leaders didn't have the personality to convince enough voters that they would actually change something for the better.

[justfollowingtheelections]

DIMAR is having close discussions with the Greens (a party founded by a former MEP of the Greens-Ecologists aka OP who left the party before the 2014 EU elections) in order to run on the same ballot, but some of their members are not very happy and would rather run with Papandreou.
SYRIZA is also trying to get ANTARSYA and the Greens-Ecologists (OP) to run with them.
http://en.protothema.gr/syriza-calls-on-greens-and-leftist-factions-to-collaborate/

Drasi by the way, probably the largest liberal party in Greece, has joined Potami which puts them even closer to the center and less likely to cooperate with SYRIZA.

If I had to make a prediction I would say that Papandreou will do a lot better than PASOK and will probably take votes away from SYRIZA as well.
  

[justfollowingtheelections]

DIMAR will officially run as "Greens-Democratic Left".

[justfollowingtheelections]

DIMAR will officially run as "Greens-Democratic Left".

Did they merge with a green party or is it just a name change?

Yes with a Green party founded by a former Ecologist-Green (OP) MEP who left the Ecologist-Greens (OP) before the 2014 EU elections.  They had a little more than 28 thousand votes in the EU elections last year.

[justfollowingtheelections]

PASOK Minister of Culture Angela Gerekou has joined ND.  PASOK leader Venizelos wrote a letter to Samaras describing the act as "immoral".  Independent MP (former PASOK and DIMAR) Vasilis Economou, who voted for Dimas has also joined ND.

http://en.protothema.gr/venizelos-slams-pm-samaras-for-partaking-in-the-immoral-act-of-deputys-transfer-to-nd/

In the meantime, the Ecologists-Greens (they had won a seat in the EU Parliament in 2009) have officially joined SYRIZA as they announced on their website (link in Greek: http://www.ecogreens-gr.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5667:2015-01-07-17-16-07&catid=155:ekloges-2015&Itemid=115).  They will have 23 candidates on the ballots.  

Also, something that will probably have a significant effect on the results: Those born in 1997 will not be able to vote since there isn't enough time for them to register.  SYRIZA and KKE have challenged the decision, but there isn't much they can do.
According to newspaper Kathimerini:

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http://www.thepressproject.net/article/71001/100-thousand-18-year-olds-will-not-be-able-to-vote-in-the-elections

ETA: Another news item that I thought might interest you: 300 academics from around the world have signed a petition where they express their support for SYRIZA and request that Greek people are allowed to vote freely without any outside pressure or influences.  The list of signees includes people such as Noam Chomsky, Slavoj Zizek and Antonio Negri.
http://en.protothema.gr/worlds-greatest-intellectuals-declare-support-to-greeks/

[justfollowingtheelections]

300 academics from around the world have signed a petition where they express their support for SYRIZA and request that Greek people are allowed to vote freely without any outside pressure or influences.

Logically, if they want no outside influences, they must be conceding that they themselves are totally uninfluential. In which case, why bother writing a letter?

They are obviously referring to the veiled (or in some cases very direct) threats by EU and German officials of Greece exiting the Eurozone if SYRIZA is elected.  And I couldn't agree more with them.  If Greece is still an independent country they should be allowed to vote for whoever is best for them, not for Merkel or Germany.

[justfollowingtheelections]

2. It would be a violation of Greek sovereignty to disagree in any way with its elected government in negotiations.

Don't make sh**t up please.  Nowhere in the appeal does it say that.

[justfollowingtheelections]

There really is no such thing as "national sovereignty" in the EU of 2015 anymore.

Wow.  Just wow.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The official list of parties that will participate in the election:

New Democracy (ND)
            
SYRIZA – KOISY – Ecologist Greens (OP) – Society First (HKP): KOISY is Social Agreement.  Society First is a small party created by former PASOK and DIMAR members.

Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) – Olive Tree (DPP)
         
Independent Greeks (ANEL)- National Patriotic Alliance - Agricultural Farming Party of Greece - Lefko - Fireburnt Greece - Christian democratic Party of Greece: Lefko, which means blank is a semi-joke party, Fireburnt Greece is a one-man party led by a leftist writer while the Christian Democratic party is also a one-man party led by a former ND MP.
               
Golden Dawn (XA)
   
Greens (Prasinoi) – Democratic Left (DIMAR)

Communist Party of Greece (KKE)

Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS)

To Potami – Drasi: Drasi is a liberal party.
 
ANTARSYA – Left Front Coalition (MARS): A party to the left of SYRIZA that will try to appeal to left-wing voters who feel SYRIZA is becoming too centrist.

Union of Centrists (EK): A one-man party led by a tv persona who is known for attacking both PASOK and ND during the '90s.

Marxist–Leninist Communist Parties of Greece (KKE (m-l) – M-L KKE): Maiost parties
               
Organisation of Internationalist Communists of Greece (OKDE): Trotskyist party
            
Workers' Revolutionary Party (EEK): Another Trotskyist party.

Teleia (Apostolos Gkletsos)   : Another one man party led by a former actor, currently mayor of Stylida, a small town in Central Greece.  He was endorsed by KKE when he first ran for mayor but he's more centrist now.

Movement of Democratic Socialists (KIDISO): Papandreou.

Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece (PAEKE): Joke party

National Resistance Movement (KEAN)               
Democratic National Reform Union               
Groundbreaking Orthodox Solidarity Front (ROMA)               
Greek Popular Democratic Liberation (ELLADA)

[justfollowingtheelections]

            
Groundbreaking Orthodox Solidarity Front (ROMA)               

LOL

Yeah I couldn't find any information on some of those small parties.  I googled their leader's name and I found a story about a gangster and nightclub bouncer who was arrested in August for offering "protection" to Roma street market workers.  I don't know if it's the same person of course (it probably is).

[justfollowingtheelections]

Has immigration played much of a role in this election.  I read that Samaras recently brought up the issue.  What is Syriza's stance?  Wondering if this is one issue where Syriza and the "establishment"  which is  often more pro-immigration than typical citizens in many countries, might be on the same side.

Probably not more than usual.  There are a lot of people who would never vote for a left-wing or center-left party because they feel they're too friendly or at least too tolerant of Muslims, but that has always been the case or at least since the number of Muslim immigrants in Greece became significant.

A bigger question IMO is what Golden Dawn voters will do.  One possibility is that they will keep voting for Golden Dawn, a second one that they will not vote at all and a third one that they will turn to ND because they don't want SYRIZA to win the election.  That's the poll crosstab I am most interested in right now.

[justfollowingtheelections]

She's a good example of why SYRIZA should stay as far away from ANEL as possible.  From what I understand she was the vice president of ANEL and one of their most popular MPs until she left them.  ANTARSYA claims that she tried to join their party but they rejected her application, which makes SYRIZA look even worse IMO.

SYRIZA MEP Dim. Papadimoulis by the way on his twitter account requested that SYRIZA candidates not improvise when they don't know an issue very well.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I've heard the comparison before that ANEL was essentially a Greek version of the Tea Party. If so, Makri is definitely sounding like their Sarah Palin

I wouldn't say that's accurate, at least not when it comes to ideology.  ANEL started as a one-man party led by Panos Kammenos a loud mouth ND MP from a very wealthy family who opposed austerity policies.  He founded the party after being expelled from ND for voting against the memoranda and was followed by a number of other ND MPs.  They tried to position themselves as a big tent, anti-austerity, patriotic party by recruiting members from both the left and the right.  One of them was former PASOK MP Giannis Dimaras who had formed this party (interestingly enough, the other leader of that party, after joining DIMAR is now running with ND).  Others such as this guy are full-fledged communists.

Another thing about them that is inaccurate is that they are xenophobic.  They are country-first types that are very vocal about foreign threats, but are not hostile towards immigrants and they have gone out of their way to distance themselves from Golden Dawn and LAOS.  This was their youth leader until recently:  (she's actually running with ND in this election).

At some point before the 2012 election they looked like they could have had the success that SYRIZA eventually had, but their leader's clownish behavior as well as their laughable conspiracy theories alienated many voters.  One of the reasons they have been losing the little support they had is because they really don't have a position on pretty much any issue.  If I had to use one word to describe them it would probably be populists.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I was just watching some of the videos on that guy's account and this one would have been hilarious if unemployment wasn't such an enormous problem for young Greeks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5RGJrU_kSY

As he says:

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[justfollowingtheelections]

Hey Charlotte, why do you call him Tsirapas?  Is your computer auto-correcting you or is it something else?  I'm just curious

[justfollowingtheelections]

It's kinda funny that anyone would label ANEL as ''too crazy'' for SYRIZA. The former is an anti-austerity break-away from the mainstream conservatives, the latter a break-away from the Communist Party that still includes people who openly advocate Communism in a variety of its tendencies (Maoists, Trotskyists etc.). 

SYRIZA is a break-away from KKE?  That's news to me.  I don't mean to offend you but you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.  And yes Kammenos is a clown. 

[justfollowingtheelections]

Sorry, but I do know what I'm talking about. The main faction of today's SYRIZA (formed in 2004) is Synaspismos, which emerged as a coalition of communist movements (the biggest components were the two Greek Communist Parties) in the 1980s. The KKE left the coalition in 1991 as Neo-Stalinists took this party over.

Of course this is simplified,  but (most of) SYRIZA represents the more eurocommunist tendency of the Greek Communist movement. You can read about it on Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_of_Left,_of_Movements_and_Ecology#Coalition.2C_late_1980s.E2.80.931991).

It's kinda funny that anyone would label ANEL as ''too crazy'' for SYRIZA. The former is an anti-austerity break-away from the mainstream conservatives, the latter a break-away from the Communist Party that still includes people who openly advocate Communism in a variety of its tendencies (Maoists, Trotskyists etc.).  

SYRIZA is a break-away from KKE?  That's news to me.  I don't mean to offend you but you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.  And yes Kammenos is a clown.  

No you don't.  Synaspismos was a coalition of KKE and EAR that was formed in 1989 to challenge scandal-marred PASOK.  EAR was indeed eurocommunist and they opposed Soviet-style communism in any type or form.  KKE left the coalition in 1991 and Synaspismos is therefore what was once EAR.  So yes, your statement is wrong.

[justfollowingtheelections]

They were the moderate/sane wing of the Commies, yes.

I love it when ignorant people pretend to know what they're talking about.

[justfollowingtheelections]

All well and good, but EAR was itself a KKE splinter group (initially as KKE Interior or something). They broke away due to the KKE's predictably slavish response to the crushing of the Prague Spring.

EAR was a KKE Interior break away party, not KKE.  KKE Interior was also a eurocommunist party that opposed Soviet-style communism.  I know it's complicated, but it's certainly a stretch to try and link SYRIZA to KKE.

[justfollowingtheelections]

KKE Interior broke away from KKE! And, again, the KKE went and purged itself of 'revisionists' after 1991!

Yes KKE Interior, not SYRIZA.  SYRIZA was formed in 2004.

In very simple terms:

Eurocommunists abandon KKE in 1968 (!) and form KKE Interior.
KKE Interior splits into smaller parties in 1987.  One of them is EAR.
EAR and KKE in 1989 form Synaspismos.
In 1991 KKE leaves Synaspismos.
In 2004 Synaspismos and a number of smaller parties form SYRIZA.
In 2010 the center left wing of Synaspismos leaves and forms DIMAR.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I'd be more careful with ''epithets'' like ''ignorant people'' etc. while advancing a very odd line.

For example, you forget that the KKE purged lots of its cadres around 1991 and the article I linked says, that the ''renewing part of KKE'' joined SYN. And as another forum member just said, EAR (Greek Left), was a successor to Communist Party of Greece, Interior (KKE-Interior).

They were the moderate/sane wing of the Commies, yes.

I love it when ignorant people pretend to know what they're talking about.

Will you admit that your initial statement was wrong?

[justfollowingtheelections]

''Will you admit that your initial statement was wrong?''

I can't see how the points made by you (as well as Sibboleth) could be seen to conflict my summary, that SYRIZA is heir to the moderate communist tendency? Of course, like ANEL which immediately attracted one or two PASOK MPs is not 100% ex-ND, SYRIZA is not 100% ex-KKE, but that's exactly where its roots are, i.e. the more moderate, more cooperative, more eurocommunist tendencies of the old KKE as well as various other communist groups.

That's not what you said.  The statement that I objected to is that SYRIZA is a KKE break-away party.


ETA: Even this statement is inaccurate.  SYRIZA isn't the heir to moderate communist tendencies.  Eurocommunists weren't necessarily the moderates.  What defined them was their rejection of Soviet-style dictatorships and their more liberal social views.  So they were quite different than what we usually describe as communists.

[justfollowingtheelections]

To be honest I composed a longish reply for you but lost it as the log-in function has been messing this evening. The sources should be enough actually. No I don't think I was wrong when I characterized SYRIZA as a ''break-away from the communist party'', it's simplification like ''ANEL as break-away from the ND''. I'd link to academia.edu/1922581/Creating_The_Scarecrow_The_2004_Athens_Olympic_Games_and_the_Greek_Financial_Crisis, opendemocracy.net/aristos-doxiadis-manos-matsaganis/national-populism-and-xenophobia-in-greece (ok, blog but uses my term in the same context), grammatikhilfe.com/europeanInstitute/research/hellenicObservatory/pdf/4th_%20Symposium/PAPERS_PPS/POLITICAL%20PARTIES%20II/ELEFTHERIOU.pdf

''Will you admit that your initial statement was wrong?''

I can't see how the points made by you (as well as Sibboleth) could be seen to conflict my summary, that SYRIZA is heir to the moderate communist tendency? Of course, like ANEL which immediately attracted one or two PASOK MPs is not 100% ex-ND, SYRIZA is not 100% ex-KKE, but that's exactly where its roots are, i.e. the more moderate, more cooperative, more eurocommunist tendencies of the old KKE as well as various other communist groups.

That's not what you said.  The statement that I objected to is that SYRIZA is a KKE break-away party.


ETA: Even this statement is inaccurate.  SYRIZA isn't the heir to moderate communist tendencies.  Eurocommunists weren't necessarily the moderates.  What defined them was their rejection of Soviet-style dictatorships and their more liberal social views.  So they were quite different than what we usually describe as communists.

Well no offense, but you're wrong, stubborn and unwilling to admit your mistake.  ANEL did break away from ND, SYRIZA didn't break away from KKE as I explained in another post.  Anyway, I'm ending this because we're derailing the thread.

[justfollowingtheelections]

A few more polls from the biggest districts:

Athens A (14 seats)
SYRIZA 33.12
ND 25.5
KKE 4.08
PASOK 3.8
GD 3.66
Potami 3.29
ANEL 2.49
DIMAR 1.36
Papandreou 0.23
Other 0.09

Athens A (the city of Athens) is a little more conservative and more affluent, so this a little surprising.  ND had actually won this district in 2012.

Athens B (44 seats)
SYRIZA 33.18
ND 19.37
KKE 3.11
GD 2.86
ANEL 2.74
PASOK 2.66
Potami 2.16
Papandreou 1.3
LAOS 1.23
Other 0.52

Athens B is more working class and it was the best SYRIZA district in 2012 and also the biggest in the country (by far).

Thessaloniki A (16 seats)
SYRIZA 35.31
ND 20.19
GD 6.11
ANEL 5.83
PASOK 4.71
KKE 4.49
Potami 2.43
LAOS 0.82
Papandreou 0.6
Greens 0.52 (running with SYRIZA)
Other 4.45

Thessaloniki B (9 seats)
SYRIZA 34.17
ND 23.93
GD 6.95
ANEL 5.8
Potami 3.25
KKE 2.86
LAOS 1.95
Papandreou 0.72
PASOK 0.72
Other 1.16

The Thessaloniki results are quite interesting because they (as well as most of Macedonia and Thrace) usually vote more conservative since they're more concerned with national security issues.  ND had actually won Thessaloniki in 2012.

By the way, I found some interesting pictures that I thought you might want to see:
This is an old picture of Samaras and Kammenos (ANEL leader) from when they were still close:


And this is a picture from the wedding of Makis Voridis:

The best man at his wedding was Carl Lang (he is the man to the right of Voridis) a former FN MEP and the current leader of the far-right Party of France.