Greek election - January 25th 2015

[politicus]

So, Sweden off and Greece on ?

OK.

Hopefully SYRIZA (even if they come out on top) will be sidelined after the election.

The last thing Greece needs now is a leftist "experiment".

Surprised you would say that.

[politicus]

Samaras says he will go to the President tomorrow and ask for parliament to be dissolved. That means elections will be held on January 25. You might as well add the date.

[politicus]

Interview with Syrizas chief economist (who is educated in Germany of all places..). Growth through stimulus of the purchasing power of lower income groups, but no financing through debt/no deficits. Those who can shall pay, so "tax the rich". Syriza are fiscal conservatives

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/yiannis-milios-syriza-will-not-run-deficits

[politicus]

Let's get this over with. A Syriza victory and government would maybe bring about some sort of resolution to this crisis either because of a Grexit or because the Greek left would forced to adopt a more centrist stance on the bailout and reforms, leading to a massive Syriza drubbing in the next election. An ND victory on the other hand would be more of the same for Greece and the eurozone.

That is pretty much how I view it. If Greece can be governed effectively and thoroughly reformed at all (and that is a big if) it must be from the left and Syriza has already prepared a moderation of policy positions in various ways. In reality they will likely pursue left-Social Democratic policies. If they are able to add a few creative community based solutions to that it will only be a bonus.

The main problem with continued ND governments is the lack of relevant and reliable coalition partners. Pasok are commiting suicide by continued collaboration, ANEL are useless and Golden Dawn a nigthmare. There are simply more constructive forces available on the left and a higher chance of a workable majority. Even if you gave ND the benfit of the doubt and said they may be able to reform Greece in their way and put an end to clientilism etc. (despite large parts of the party being rotten) it would as a minimum require an unlikely ND majority.

[politicus]

Papandreou is starting his own movement. I think he just realises that he'll be low on the PASOK list so he's saving face while he still can. Perhaps his name alone will carry him across the line, but I really don't see how PASOK, DIMAR, The Reformists, To Potami and the Papandreou Party can all co-exist.

Potami and the Reformists are merging.

Papandreou de facto declared his intent to go solo almost a month ago before the election seemed inevitable. I think his party will do significantly better than (rump-)Pasok.

DIMAR is a non-entity by now. They try to "merge" with Syriza, but are still setting unrealistic demands (keeping separate structure and policy concessions) as if they had any bargaining position.

[politicus]

Papandreou is starting his own movement. I think he just realises that he'll be low on the PASOK list so he's saving face while he still can. Perhaps his name alone will carry him across the line, but I really don't see how PASOK, DIMAR, The Reformists, To Potami and the Papandreou Party can all co-exist.

As mentioned earlier Potami and the Reformists are merging.

Papandreou de facto declared his intent to go solo almost a month ago before the election seemed inevitable. I think his party will do significantly better than (rump-)Pasok.

That's just insane. How does Papaendreou's name continue to carry such support? It's like voting for the blind over the one-eyed.

It will be more a question of rump-Pasok doing really badly. Papandreou has at least been critical of the government and austerity.

[politicus]

Considering that Papandreou's new outfit will doubtlessly take a good chunk of PASOK's remaining supporters, anyone else think it's a realistic possibility that PASOK fails to meet the threshold?

Yes. More likely than not actually. Papandreou only needs to take a third of their voters for it to happen and I think he will get at least half.

[politicus]

I think 37-39% would get SYRIZA a majority, depending on how many minor parties meet the 3% threshold. They are closing up on that range in current polling. It's funny that one of the biggest critiques of FPTP in Canada is that a party can get a majority with under 40% of the vote (hence 60+% "voted against them") yet Greece's proportional system can give the same result because of the 50 seat bonus.

I'm sure the list-system partisan would say "the 50-seat bonus means Greece does not have a proportional system".

It is obvious that the bonus means Greece does not have a fully proportional system. It is by definition moderated PR.

Personally I think a higher threshold woud have been fairer and it would have forced the moderate centre-left to unite. Still, while Golden Dawn was polling at ther best no realistic threshold could have kept them out.

[politicus]

Surely SYRIZA will get a pluarity? Will be very surprised if they don't.

Whether that means they'll govern is another question.

Not really. There will be no realistic alternative to them if Syriza gets the bonus (in which case Syriza and the two antisystem parties (KKE and Golden Dawn) would have a majority of the seats).

[politicus]

Papandreou is not starting a new party.. no, no, nothing that trivial. He is starting a "progressive movement" named either Change Movement or New Change and with a platform that will be decided at a congress after the election... so "vote for change" delivered by a guy that has been around forever in charge of a movement without a program.

"A Movement which will work in the next parliament to secure all of the necessary preconditions for a safe and final exit from the crisis.

A Movement which will give all of its powers to make a reality of the transition to a Post-clientelist Greece, with a vision of building a Greece of Justice and Creativity."


http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreou-announces-new-progressive-movement

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/george-papandreous-new-party-taking-form

Still:

"A large percentage of the party’s candidates expected to be under 40 and relative newcomers to politics."
  

[politicus]

Also:

"However the risk very much remains of the PASOK vote (which is currently polling at around 5%) simply being split down the middle between the remains of PASOK and Papandreou’s new party. That would leave both parties out of parliament (at least 3% of the vote is required for parties to elect MPs to parliament)."

Would be hilarious if that happened.

[politicus]

I would vote for LAOS, or maybe ANEL.

No one in their right mind would vote for ANEL. I suppose LAOS is the choice of sane fascists.

[politicus]

ND is trying to capture voters to the right. They have placed pro-government ex-ANEL Indies on their lists and are trying to persuade ANEL and LAOS deputies to desert - basically causing those parties to implode. They may be challenged by Takis Baltakos (former government GS) and his ultra-conservative Roots, though I highly doubt he will be successful.
 
There are at least two questions in this

1) Will anti-austerity right wingers vote for ND to stop Syriza?

2) If ND goes right does that give some of the centrist options a chance to capture moderate centre-right voters? All the centrist options are basically centre-left, so how does the battle for the centre play out in this scenario?

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/the-hard-right-tack-of-antonis-samaras

[politicus]

1) Will anti-austerity right wingers vote for ND to stop Syriza?

2) If ND goes right does that give some of the centrist options a chance to capture moderate centre-right voters? All the centrist options are basically centre-left, so how does the battle for the centre play out in this scenario?

1) As you probably can guess, no. In fact, they might prefer an unstable Syriza minority because it breeds the instability in which they feed on/

2) To Potami? I mean the party is ridiculously intellectual and elite (look at their selected list of names), they might get the urban ND voter that seems to be souring on them in recent years.

The questions should not be interpreted as "things I personally wanted answers to", but things to debate.

While the right wing anti-austerity parties thrive on insecurity many of their voters  may not want the left in power. This is at least what Samaras & Co are banking on.

Potami has liberal elements, but also leftists. Going from Conservative to Social Liberal is often a big step identity wise, so going Conservative to SoLibs in alliance with actual leftists... No doubt some will, but not many.

[politicus]

Papandreou Party name: ‘Movement of Democratic Socialists’ (Kinima Dimokraton Sosialiston) according to its founding charter. More "lefty" than the first drafts and the emblem of the new party will be an SD classic: a rose on a red background.

PASOK calls Papandreou’s move an 'immoral act'

[politicus]

A bit puzzling why he went from the "change" stuff to an ideological name/emblem, but either himself or key advisors must have gotten cold feet. Probably a sensible move, it would have been too easy to ridicule.

[politicus]

Deputy finance minister in Papandreou’s first government Filippos Sachinidis and former government spokesman Giorgos Petalotis will be the party’s "media representatives".

Other PASOK deserters are former parliamentary speaker Filippos Petsalnikos and former minister Dimitris Reppas + MPs Thanos Moraitis, Sokratis Xynidis and Simos Kedikoglou. Papandreou’s Brother Nikos has a key role and there is speculation about whether his daughter Margarita (who is a molecular biologist and has not been involved in politics) will play a role. She has been active in the planning.

Otherwise the idea is to present "fresh faces" and avoid the old guard.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_03/01/2015_545924

[politicus]

Is there already some initial polling on the MDS ?

And how likely is it that it will draw some potential SYRIZA voters ?

Financial Times refers to a poll from last week saying Papandreou could get 4-5% and take vital votes from Syriza, but no link or reference to the pollster - and the last part seems like wishful thinking on their part.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/51c90b1a-91c0-11e4-afd2-00144feabdc0.html

[politicus]

So PASOK won't have any seats? LOL!

The real LOL scenario is both Pasok and MDS without any seats.

[politicus]

So I wanted to poke around looking at what a Syriza government would actually do in power, beyond cross their fingers and desperately hope Germany's heart grows three sizes. I managed to find a manifesto of sorts from 2012:

http://links.org.au/node/2888

Some awesomely hare-brained stuff (they want Germany to pay them WWII reparations? Um, good luck with that), and a couple of stuff that almost certainly will be abandoned; but there are some good stuff in there. Unfortunately being in the euro means they won't get any of it done, so I expect them to sort of flail around doing soft-left issues to keep the base kinda happy.

(incidentally while I was searching google for New Left issues that a Syriza government could take action on, I found out that Papandreou supports the legalisation of marijuana now (?!?) )

If you look at statements/networking/contacts to business leaders etc. they have been preparing a move to the center for a long time. I do not think the 2012 program is all that relevant for their actual  actions in government + they will most likely depend on cooperating with a centrist party.

[politicus]

DIMAR will officially run as "Greens-Democratic Left".

Did they merge with a green party or is it just a name change?

[politicus]

Pretty good myth busting piece about Syriza by a German economist:

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/opinion/article/myth-and-reality-in-syrizas-platform

[politicus]

The first poll I have seen with MDS in it:    

Syriza 35.0
ND 25.0
Pasok 2.2    
ANEL 2.5    
Golden Dawn 8.6       
KKE 5.0    
Potami 4.0    
MDS 4.8    
Others (incl. DIMAR) 12.9    

So Pasok and ANEL are out and Papandreou & Co are in.

The pollster "Marc" seems to be the most accurate (I looked at the final polls ahead of the last few elections).

"Marc" currently shows SYRIZA ahead by ca. 3%

Got a link?

[politicus]

Got a link?

The Wikipedia polling pages from the last few elections.

The last poll listed there is all the way back from December 26-28. Hardly relevant now. Too much has happened in between.

[politicus]

Pasok does not rule out a coalition with Syriza:

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/would-pasok-cooperate-with-syriza

“could happen on the basis that we remain in Europe and on the basis that specific actions would be taken to keep the country on a European trajectory.”

(Europe=EU from a Pasok POV)