Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Velasco]

I think editorialising is not a good start for an election thread. Said this, the traditional parties are rotten and current situation is unsustainable. It's obvious that Greece needs a change. While it's legitimate to be sceptic about that a new government could be able to improve the situation of the Greek people, Syriza deserves the benefit of the doubt... just like any other political force that aspires to win. I support a Syriza-Potami coalition and I hope that Merkel and Juncker won't succeed in their attempts to bully the Greek people. They have little to offer aside a prolongation of the agony.

[Velasco]

Possibly. In Spain, the Rajoy's rightward turns (and scandals) have left centrists leaving to PSOE in droves, maintaining PSOE as a viable force even with much of their "base" flirting with Podemos.

That is not entirely correct. Centrists are mostly leaving to abstention while PP is turning rightwards, albeit in an erratic manner. The government withdrew the abortion bill months ago, but recently passed the reactionary 'gag law' on public safety. Corruption scandals affect PSOE too, specially in Andalusia and to a lesser extent than PP in other places. PSOE is trying to appeal centrist voters and seems to be picking small part of them and recovering some former abstainers in the centre-left. Most of the polls in December placed PSOE third, still around 20%.   

[Velasco]

German government sees "Grexit" inevitable if Syriza wins the election. Angela Merkel and her closest collaborators consider "manageable" an scenario in which Greece leaves the Euro staying in the EU, according to a trial balloon diffused by Der Spiegel not refused by the German Chancellery. Czech president Milos Zeman stated that Greece should be expelled from the Eurozone because Greece joined the single currency falsifying the country statistics... maybe ignoring that the fraud was perpetrated by a ND cabinet and that the Troika's Favorite Antonis Samaras is the ND leader! 

In Spain, Rajoy's government and the Popular Party expect that the "Greece effect" would damage Pablo Iglesias. They believe that Podemos won't benefit from a Syriza victory because:

a) If Favorite Antonis Samaras doesn't win, the instability in Greece is going to scare potential voters of Podemos who are moderate. They will see the great difficulties provoked by a government not wanted by the great EU powers.

b) Greece will mirror the difficulties of fulfilling the promises of breaking austerity policies and renegotiating the debt. Every day with Syriza in power will demonstrate, according to the Spanish government, that there's not margin for negotiation between Athens and Brussels (and Berlin).

PP government publicly states that it's embracing austerity by conviction, but ministries say in private that Brussels and Berlin didn't leave them room to enact another policy.

[Velasco]

Election coverage in Der Spiegel.

"Germany Open to Possible Greek Euro Zone Exit" (already mentioned)

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/merkel-and-germany-open-to-possible-greek-euro-zone-exit-a-1011277.html

"What Would Syriza's Victory Mean for Europe?"


http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/aims-of-greek-politician-alexis-tsipras-remain-a-mystery-in-europe-a-1011288.html

Jakob Augstein wonders if there's a reason for  Greece's suffering (German):

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/augstein-kolumne-griechenland-und-seine-schulden-a-1010909.html

[Velasco]

They are obviously referring to the veiled (or in some cases very direct) threats by EU and German officials of Greece exiting the Eurozone if SYRIZA is elected.  And I couldn't agree more with them.  If Greece is still an independent country they should be allowed to vote for whoever is best for them, not for Merkel or Germany.

Well, Germany and the rest of the eurozone share a currency with Greece and a number of countries have invested a lot of money in ensuring the prevention of a complete Greek default (i.e. a complete restructuring of the debt would have serious consequences for Germany's balance sheet as well). So it's perfectly natural and normal for these leaders to have a position on what is transpiring in Greece. Moreover, it's sensible to remind the Greek electorate that Syriza's plans (debt write offs + ECB QE to fund Syriza's budgetary vision) won't come to fruition.

I'm afraid that you are missing something with those massive loans, mostly granted by the ECB, the EU and the IMF (only a tiny share came directly from Germany).

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2012-05-23/merkel-should-know-her-country-has-been-bailed-out-too

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2. It would be a violation of Greek sovereignty to disagree in any way with its elected government in negotiations.

Don't make sh**t up please.  Nowhere in the appeal does it say that.

Good thing I didn't say they said that, right? But it's patently obvious that this is the petty logical fallacy leading them to jump to the defence of Greece's democratic right to whatever it wants in negotiations, but not Germany's

No. They come to say that Greek people is as sovereign as German people to choose the government they think it will defend better their interests. Also, the signatories hope that a Syriza's victory would represent "green shots of change for Europe". They can be blamed for being too optimistic. However, the fallacy might be well contained in the tricky mechanisms and the narrative behind of those massive loans granted to Greece, attached with an austerity package which certainly has contributed to further ruin the country.  

[Velasco]

Reading the same old fables on the bailout and the debt is what really bores me to death. At least, try to find out what "debt-restructuring" and "public audit" mean, what's the true motivation behind the bailouts and who are the final beneficiaries. Certainly not the Greek people, and I doubt the very common German citizens are benefiting at all. 

[Velasco]

Please, care to read the text I linked before and extract your own conclusions. Otherwise, it'd be boring to continue this discussion. Boring to death.

[Velasco]

Spain's PM Mariano Rajoy made a surprise trip to Athens to support Samaras.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/14/inenglish/1421231196_859845.html

Pablo Iglesias (Podemos) and Cayo Lara (IU) will attend a Tsipras rally on 22, at the end of the campaign.

[Velasco]

Did you count a poll conducted by Public Issue released today in Agvi?

The result, as referenced in eldiario.es, is quite similar to your average: Syriza 35.5% (144 seats), ND 30.5% (81), To Potami and KKE 7% each, XA 6.5%, PASOK 5%, ANEL 3% and KDS 2%. Syriza is down from 38% and 151 seats last Sunday and ND up from 30% and 80 seats (virtually the same). XA and KKE advance with regard the previous poll.

[Velasco]

ANEL is going with Kammenos teaching a cute boy (symbolically named Alexis..) how to run a model train:

Alexis+Kammenos sounds like a Byzantine emperor.

The vid is quite hilarious, although I have to say that Argentinian are much better (especially Menem 2003 ). Thank you very much for the bit of fun.

[Velasco]

First we take Athens, then we'll take Madrid: Alexis Tsipras and Podemos' secretary general Pablo Iglesias at Syriza rally yesterday.

Tsipras asked for "a clear mandate to change Greece", whereas Iglesias stressed that "a wind of change is blowing in Europe; the name of change in Greece is SYRIZA and the name of change in Spain will be Podemos".

[Velasco]

Phil is trolling of course.

Nah. He has a developed clairvoyance, that's all

[Velasco]

Looks like Marine Le Pen of the French National Front is also a Syriza supporter, outside of Syriza's immigration policy.  The move toward ANEL will probably confirm those feelings.

Marine Le Pen is obviously trying to cash in on Syriza's success (even though their platforms have really nothing in common), but I don't see how that's relevant to Greece in any way.

If I remember well, Panzergirl and the FN's troupe have said some kind words about Podemos in Spain. They dislike their "sectarianism" and likely the immigration platform, similar to Syriza's. Obviously, they are fishing in the troubled waters of the "establishment". Pure demagogic tactics.

[Velasco]

Great maps!