Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Zanas]

For the Greek-alphabetically-challenged around here, here are the transcriptions from that poll from left to right :

Syriza
ND
To Potami (The River)
Chryssé Augé (Golden Dawn)
KKE
Pasok (ahahahahahah)
Anexartitoi Ellines (Independent Greeks - Anel)
Oikologoi Prasinoi (Ecologist Greens - OP)
Allo (Others - as in "allophone")
Den echo apophasisei (Undecided)
Leuko / Akyro (White (as in "leukemia") / Invalid)
Den tha psephiso (I won't vote)
DXDA - Den xero / Den apanto (I don't know / No answer)

Also, this poll shows us, in its crosstabs, that 9% of last time ND voters are now choosing Syriza. Among last time Pasok voters, 23% have switched towards Syriza, 18% to ND and 11% to Potami, with 20%+ undecided.

Finally, in terms of valid decided votes, this poll translates into this :
Syriza 35% (144)
ND 29% (78)
Potami 9.5% (25)
Golden Dawn 7% (19)
KKE 5% (13)
Pasok 4.5% (12)
Anel 3.5% (9)
Other 6.5%

Absolute majority is at 151 seats. If you lower Anel level to 2.99%, below the 3% threshold, Syriza gets to 147 seats. Looking good for now, but I agree with Comrade Tito supra, the terror campaign by the Goodthink European media and austeritarian governments has not begun to kick in...

[Zanas]

Quite a number of Greeks seem to just vote for Papandreou's name by generations of induced Pavlovian reflexes.

[Zanas]

I think 37-39% would get SYRIZA a majority, depending on how many minor parties meet the 3% threshold. They are closing up on that range in current polling. It's funny that one of the biggest critiques of FPTP in Canada is that a party can get a majority with under 40% of the vote (hence 60+% "voted against them") yet Greece's proportional system can give the same result because of the 50 seat bonus.

For the moment, Syriza is not getting it before reaching 37-38%, yes. But if you imagine Anel under 3%, which they got in a few recent polls, and every other force in their lower bracket, i.e. ND at 27%, Potami and XA at 7%, Pasok and KKE at 6%, then Syriza will get to 151 seats as soon as 35.5%.

So the dynamics are really important now, Syriza desperately needs to steal away a few votes from each of the surrounding forces. I think Potami is the most vulnerable one.

[Zanas]

Not for the moment, no, but Palmos for tvxs will include them in their next deliver next week.

For the moment, Syriza's electorate is very stable, and virtually none of their past voters were transferring to Pasok. Only 2% of them were going to Potami, 3% to "Others", including maybe a few to Pasok, and 6% undecided.

In the latest Palmos poll, however, Pasok is trailing and is now getting only 3% in raw figures. They end up with 4% with corrected data, though. The pollster seem to allocate a disproportionate amount of undecided voters to Potami and ND rather than XA or Syriza, probably assuming that undecideds will break for stability in the end, which I'm not sure is safe to assume in this particular context.

Here are the raw figures, then how they would translate on only the valid votes, then the corrected figures provided by the pollster, ending with the seat count.

Syriza : 29.4 / 36.9 / 35.5 / 149
ND : 22 / 27.6 / 28 / 78
XA : 5.7 / 7.2 / 6.5 / 18
KKE : 4.3 / 5.4 / 5.5 / 15
Potami : 4.1 / 5.1 / 6.5 / 18
Anel : 3.2 / 4 / 4 / 11
Pasok : 3 / 3.8 / 4 / 11
OP (Greens) : 2.2 / 2.8 / NA
Others : 5.8 / 7.3 / 10 (including OP)

I'm not sure how XA starting at a 5.7 raw figure and To Potami starting at a 4.1 raw figure could end up the same. It would mean there is an opposite a the shy fascist voter effect. Well, maybe there is. But still a bit weird nonetheless.

Still, looking good for Syriza. If any of Anel, Pasok or the new ridiculously power-grabbing Papandreou outfit doesn't make it into Parliament, they could be getting an absolute majority with as few as 33.5 % !

Not that it is democratically very satsifying, of course...

[Zanas]

Well, the poll we discussed was just posted on the wikipedia page about opinion polling for this election and on the electograph blog.

Here you go :



Seats :

Syriza   156
ND   76
XA   26
KKE   15
Potami   12
Anel   0
KDS   15
Pasok 0

Still, I can't find the raw data, and the pollster seems previously unknown. XA is higher than it is these days, and these are abrupt falls for each of Potami, ND and of course Pasok. We'd rather be prudent.

[Zanas]

An internal for ND has been posted on electograph, here's how it goes :


Now don't try the US way of automatically assuming that ND real score is necessarily lower than how much they get in their internal. It's not really how things work in Europe. Pollsters just... poll, I don't know. Plus I haven't found the crosstabs or anything so maybe it's not a legit poll. 15% Others seem a bit much, maybe there are undecideds in there, which would explain a relatively poor XA showing. But still, this is what it would translate into in terms of seats.

Syriza   144
ND   76
XA   13
KKE   16
Potami   19
Anel   9
Pasok   10
KDS   12

Syriza's figure would climb up to 148 with Anel at 2.99% instead. The second poll where KDS is included is also the second one where they overtake Pasok. Let's see how it goes.

[Zanas]

Four polls out today ! And the "Pro Olympic Circles" poll mentioned earlier showing KDS above Pasok has disappeared from the wiki page... So has the second poll with KDS above. I don't know who modifies the page, but it's a bit weird. Still, I've just averaged the four polls into this :

Syriza   34.4 (147)
ND   31 (87)
Potami   6.5 (18)
XA   6.2 (17)
KKE   5.7 (16)
Pasok   5.3 (15)
KDS   2.9 (0)
Anel   2.8 (0)
Others   5.2

So Pasok seems to be keeping their last voters after all, and it looks like Papandreou could well not make it. Also the gap between Syriza and ND has closed a bit.

[Zanas]

Yeah, defending the oppressed is boring. Let's end that already. Let's switch to the oppressors' side, it seems much more entertaining. They even have Luftballons. 99 of them, apparently.

[Zanas]

There really is no such thing as "national sovereignty" in the EU of 2015 anymore.

Wow.  Just wow.

Well it's kind of true.

[Zanas]

Well I'm sure potential influences or even positions and postures about an election can be discussed in the thread about the election.

Well, we have 6 more polls, all by other pollsters, since I published an average just 2 days ago !

So I'm averaging all of them, an average of 10 polls whose fieldwork date back to Jan 4th for the furthest, which is acceptable. In brackets, first figure is seats if both Anel and Kidiso make it, second if only Anel makes it, third if none makes it)

Syriza   34,3 (141-144-147)
ND   30,6 (81-84-87)
Potami   6,7 (18-18-19)
XA   6,2 (16-17-18)
KKE   5,6 (15-15-16)
Pasok   4,8 (13-13-14)
Anel   3 (8-8-0)
Kidiso   2,9 (8-0-0)
Autres   6

A few trends that can be noted from these ten polls :
-Syriza's lead is quite steady at 3.5 pts, but they have a hard time growing over a glass ceiling of 35.
-ND has improved a bit and is now pushing 30
-there's a battle for second place between XA and Potami. Potami polls a little better, but I've already stated that the pollsters' corrections for them are somewhat optimistic sometimes. I wouldn't rule out XA ending third, but they won't get much more than 7 or 8.
-KKE is remarkably steady, polling between 5 and 6 in 8 out of these 10 polls. 5.5 % should be very close to their actual result, meaning ca. 15 seats guaranteed.
-Pasok has taken a blow, but not thatmuch of a blow. They poll as low as 3.5% in one of these, but as high as 6.5% in another. I don't really think that Kidiso can gobble up much more of their voters now. They should end around 5, maybe even above KKE if Kidiso voters get the feeling Kidiso won't make it to 3% in the final days.
-Anel is a big question mark. Their average is actually 2.95% ! They are in in 7 out of these 10 polls, but barely. Best score for them is 3.5, twice. With scared centre-right voters voting ND tactically in the final rush to avoid the intergalactic cataclysm of having a left-wing party in government, I'm pretty sure Anel won't make it in the end.
-Kidiso's the other question mark, but a lesser one. I'm not seeing a real momentum, it even seems they had to fake those two first polls that came out in their favor, which have completely disappeared... I'm not sure what Papandreou could offer to undecided voters so they'll vote for him, but he should still have a trick or two up his sleeve. Still, I'd say they only have 1 out of 5 chances to get in.

Polls publication is ending this weekend, I guess we'll still have a bunch this Saturday or even Sunday if that's allowed. And those last polls will be highly important, because they will set the final trends. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see one of these final polls showing ND recovering or even neck and neck with Syriza, just in order to launch a narrative. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if such a poll were completely made up. It's still Greece, after all.

[Zanas]

How in the world has PASOK rebounded to 5% after falling below the threshold?

Pasok never fell under the threshold in polling, at least not in any of the polls listed on the wiki. Actually their worst polling result is 3.5% in the Palmos poll this week. It really seems as if the two polls we talked about earlier putting them below Kidiso were nothing more than scams. That or the people maintaining the wiki on polling in Greece are Pasok officials. Still, all the other polls that came out since have Pasok 2 pts above Kidiso.

[Zanas]

Please try not to be rude OK (''Everybody on this board knows that. Do not assume posters here to be ignorant of basic facts'').  The fact was worth of mentioning in that context, even here, not everyone is a specialist in Greek politics. There are some other points, where I have an opinion differeing from yours. I will address these later.

Ah, yes, meet our fellow Danish poster, she's quite a bit... I wouldn't say rude as much as uptight.

But even she seems to ignore that after reconvening, the new parliament would hold a maximum of three further rounds of voting for president : first a 3/5 majority vote (needing 180 votes), then 5 days later an absolute majority vote (needing 151 votes), then at last five days later a relative majority vote among the top two candidates of the previous round. See here. So Syriza doesn't need 180 votes for president, they just need 151, which is what they need to govern in any case.

So, yeah, we're all savvy and all, and you need to look a bit into what we already covered on the matter before making new posts or you'll come out as a bit arrogant.

And as for Philip Weisler, the same goes for you, but keep it cool, you'll blend in just fine.

[Zanas]

Cheap shot - and you know it.

[Zanas]

So I've averaged the last ten polls from ten different pollsters again, none dating from more than Jan 13th.

Syriza   35   (145)
ND   31,1   (85)
Potami   6,7   (18)
XA   5,9   (16)
KKE   5,4   (15)
Pasok   4,8   (13)
Anel   3,1   (8 )
KDS   2,6   
Autres   5,4

Anel makes it in all polls but 2, whereas KDS fails to make it in all polls but 3. Even without Anel, Syriza's not getting an absolute majority, they get stuck at 148 or 149. But the gap between Syriza and ND isn't shrinking : it's never less than 2.5, and sometimes as high as 5.5.   

[Zanas]

snip

Does that include the E-Voice poll from January 17? It has Syriza down to 33.9 and ANEL on 4.2.  and it doesn't look like E-Voice is a serious pollster.

Yes it does, and as I said I have no idea of the respective quality of those pollsters, sadly we have no regular Greek poster who could enlighten us. But this E-Voice poll is not totally inconsistant with other polls, Anel hits 4.1 in another one, and Syriza is little above 34 in three other ones. Well within the general MoE at least.

[Zanas]

Did you count a poll conducted by Public Issue released today in Agvi?

The result, as referenced in eldiario.es, is quite similar to your average: Syriza 35.5% (144 seats), ND 30.5% (81), To Potami and KKE 7% each, XA 6.5%, PASOK 5%, ANEL 3% and KDS 2%. Syriza is down from 38% and 151 seats last Sunday and ND up from 30% and 80 seats (virtually the same). XA and KKE advance with regard the previous poll.

Yeah I included this one too. To be fair my methodology is simplistic : I gathered the ten latest polls from this page.

Public Issue seems prone to produce outliers though : Syriza's 38% last week was clearly one, and so is KKE's 7% this time. Even 35.5% is the second highest they got from any of the ten pollsters listed in my average.

[Zanas]

A few more polls from the biggest districts:

Athens A (14 seats)
SYRIZA 33.12
ND 25.5
KKE 4.08
PASOK 3.8
GD 3.66
Potami 3.29
ANEL 2.49
DIMAR 1.36
Papandreou 0.23
Other 0.09

Athens A (the city of Athens) is a little more conservative and more affluent, so this a little surprising.  ND had actually won this district in 2012.

Athens B (44 seats)
SYRIZA 33.18
ND 19.37
KKE 3.11
GD 2.86
ANEL 2.74
PASOK 2.66
Potami 2.16
Papandreou 1.3
LAOS 1.23
Other 0.52

Athens B is more working class and it was the best SYRIZA district in 2012 and also the biggest in the country (by far).

Thessaloniki A (16 seats)
SYRIZA 35.31
ND 20.19
GD 6.11
ANEL 5.83
PASOK 4.71
KKE 4.49
Potami 2.43
LAOS 0.82
Papandreou 0.6
Greens 0.52 (running with SYRIZA)
Other 4.45

Thessaloniki B (9 seats)
SYRIZA 34.17
ND 23.93
GD 6.95
ANEL 5.8
Potami 3.25
KKE 2.86
LAOS 1.95
Papandreou 0.72
PASOK 0.72
Other 1.16

The Thessaloniki results are quite interesting because they (as well as most of Macedonia and Thrace) usually vote more conservative since they're more concerned with national security issues.  ND had actually won Thessaloniki in 2012.

These numbers only add up to 69% to 84% depending on which constituency, plus they are completely all over the place and pretty inconsistent with anything we've seen so far in national polling, even if we correct with tendencies we know about Thessaloniki or both districts of Athens.

And then, you know, constituency polling.

So I'd take them with quite a large amount of the proverbial grains of salt...

[Zanas]

I have two big question marks for y'all :
1) Is the XA vote underestimated in the polls ? I mean, in nearly every other instance in Europe, the far-right vote is underestimated in polls by 2 to 5 points. XA has decreased a lot in the polls in 2014, and they have now been steady at 6-7% for a long time, but can we totally rule out that they end up getting a lot more than that ? And in that case, what would you expect ? 9% ? Over 10% ?

2) Will there be a classic "shy conservative status-quo voter" effect that could make the undecideds break heavily for ND on voting day ? If so, could that effect bring ND above Syriza for first place ? Again, ND has been steadily polling 3-4 pts behind Syriza for well over six months now, could all that be just erased with a stroke of a magic wand in the end with fear tactics and shy dumb voters that prefer the status quo ?

You have 4 hours.

[Zanas]

Well, we have this. It's an exit poll, but I'd take this with the usual heavy grain of salt. Still, here it goes :

Syriza 33.5-35.5
ND 25.5-27.6
XA 6.4
To Potami 6.2
KKE 5
Pasok 4.5
Anel 4.3
Kidiso 2.9

The pollster is RIA Novosti, who didn't publish the single smallest poll in the run towards the election, all the more reason to be cautious.

[Zanas]

If Palmos is any indication, there could be a remote chance at Pasok ending below Anel, which would be the delicious cherry on top of that already delicious cake.

[Zanas]

I think that at 149 or 150, which seems growingly likely, they'll take their chance alone. KKE might not abstain, they also might, but Potami could abstain in order to seem serious and responsible.

[Zanas]

We can now nearly safely assume that Anel will overcome Pasok. Hilarious.

[Zanas]

When it comes to reducing unemployment, new spending is justified. With 26% unemployment a large chunk of what should be their tax base is missing. In the long-term spending to boost private sector employment now reduces the debt in the long-term. The previous government hasn't done nearly enough to address that. SYRIZA is generally more trusted when it comes to addressing tax evasion and corruption than the traditional parties. They promise higher taxes and military cuts too so they're not promising money for jobs out of thin air.
Now, I'm not going to defend SYRIZA's platform because it goes further than what I want, but I'm supporting them as an agent of change.

Okay how will you spend the money to increase productivity?

With the current state of the environment, why would anyone want to do that ?

[Zanas]

It will now be 149 or 150 seats. From my projections, 151 seems too far-fetched now. With 90% of ballots in, the gap between Syriza and ND is now back to tightening a little bit. If it widens just by 0,1 point, it will get to 150 seats.

[Zanas]

I think YorkshireLiberal and Vosem are our best predictions in the dedicated thread.