How will Larry Hogan (R-MD) and Charlie Baker (R-MA) do as governors?

[The_Doctor]

Hogan will be re-elected, barring a national blue wave in 2018 (I don't expect that, even if we win the White House in 2016).

He's a pretty social media adept governor, and I don't see his opposition on social media that well. I also think he's co-opted well elements of the Democratic establishment (Peter Franchot, for example). The Democratic establishment in Maryland is pretty much like the Democratic establishment in DC right after Reagan's victory. (Hogan is no RR). The point is, they are sclerotic, so used to power, and so used to the status quo that a smart Republican can run circles around them. Miller and Busch have never really been challenged from the right. Ehrlich was a confrontational governor who was derided as a one-off, Hogan's the confirmation that Maryland is capable of electing Republican governors if they're angry with the status quo.

I think he's learned from Ehrlich and will be the first Maryland Republican to be re-elected governor since Theodore McKeldin in the 1950s. I also think that his re-election - if smartly done - can pull Republicans to over 40% of the State House. Which means his vetoes get sustained in 2019. Don't forget, the number of county executives who are Republican in this state is among the highest levels in decades. There is a palpable frustration with the entrenched Democratic establishment; while I don't expect this state to flip Republican or anything, I can see Hogan's brand succeeding here.

Remember, nobody here was happy about the "rain tax" and what it symbolized about the O'Malley Administration. The DMV is a joke and there's widespread frustration about state government. If there wasn't, Hogan wouldn't have even breached 45% of the vote. It's as simple as that. Voters aren't ready to become Republicans or even vote for a Republican President or Senator (though if Mikulski steps down, due to old age, and Hogan appoints a smart moderate/liberal replacement, I hold out hope). But I don't think Maryland voters are happy with the status quo and are willing to tolerate Hogan's brand of conservatism.

In short, my prediction: he'll be remembered as a far more successful governor than what people here think.

[warandwar]

Hogan will be re-elected, barring a national blue wave in 2018 (I don't expect that, even if we win the White House in 2016).

He's a pretty social media adept governor, and I don't see his opposition on social media that well. I also think he's co-opted well elements of the Democratic establishment (Peter Franchot, for example). The Democratic establishment in Maryland is pretty much like the Democratic establishment in DC right after Reagan's victory. (Hogan is no RR). The point is, they are sclerotic, so used to power, and so used to the status quo that a smart Republican can run circles around them. Miller and Busch have never really been challenged from the right. Ehrlich was a confrontational governor who was derided as a one-off, Hogan's the confirmation that Maryland is capable of electing Republican governors if they're angry with the status quo.

I think he's learned from Ehrlich and will be the first Maryland Republican to be re-elected governor since Theodore McKeldin in the 1950s. I also think that his re-election - if smartly done - can pull Republicans to over 40% of the State House. Which means his vetoes get sustained in 2019. Don't forget, the number of county executives who are Republican in this state is among the highest levels in decades. There is a palpable frustration with the entrenched Democratic establishment; while I don't expect this state to flip Republican or anything, I can see Hogan's brand succeeding here.

Remember, nobody here was happy about the "rain tax" and what it symbolized about the O'Malley Administration. The DMV is a joke and there's widespread frustration about state government. If there wasn't, Hogan wouldn't have even breached 45% of the vote. It's as simple as that. Voters aren't ready to become Republicans or even vote for a Republican President or Senator (though if Mikulski steps down, due to old age, and Hogan appoints a smart moderate/liberal replacement, I hold out hope). But I don't think Maryland voters are happy with the status quo and are willing to tolerate Hogan's brand of conservatism.

In short, my prediction: he'll be remembered as a far more successful governor than what people here think.

To quote the Rock, do you really think that:
a: being more "social media adept" has any impact on elections? Like John Q. Public is going to the voter booth and thinking "well I am a follower of Hogan's vine and his thigh gap is bae"
b: Franchot represents the "Democratic establishment" ( look at any of his votes on the public works committee, there's a bunch of 2-1 votes where O'malley and Kopp vote for something and Franchot votes against because of some finnicky complaint. He was also very much against slot machines)
c: that Mikulski would resign early in her term, you know, because she would gladly give up a seat to a Republican
d: that the number of Republican county executives means anything at all (remember Romney won 19/24 counties in 2012). 1st of all, only 8 counties of Maryland have county executives. In 2014 Republicans picked up Wicomico and Howard, while Democrats won Frederick, which just switched to an executive system. Wicomico isn't exactly an urban metropolis and Kittleman's win in Howard IMO was entirely personal.
e: that Miller and Busch are such unskilled politicians that Hogan can be Carcetti to their Royce. You don't become the longest serving State Senate President in American history without having political skills.

To say that Hogan won't be antagonistic is absurd if you suggest that the anti-impervious surface fee (or pro-asphalt) lobby is so large. This campaign is entirely based on bashing environmentalists for wanting to do something about our bay. I'd say taking a reasonable way of financing stormwater runoff protections and turning it into a "ZOMG RAIN TAX" is fairly antagonistic!

[The_Doctor]

a. As I said, Hogan's a master of the new medium of communication - which is social media. The internet, Facebook, twitter, and so on is the new "television." Hogan has mastered that and I think it helped him in 2014. I think it will definitely boost his re-election margin by a few points. So yes.

b.  I would regard Peter Franchot as more from the conservative Democratic wing, but I'm saying Hogan has done serious outreach to Democrats since being elected governor. I'm not just citing Franchot, although Franchot is one example. You're overlooking the fact that Hogan has been assiduous about reaching out to Democrats and coopting people he can work with. That's an upgrade from Bob Ehrlich.

c. She's 78. She'll be 80 in 2016 and 86 by the time her 2022 term ends. I'm not saying anything will happen and I hope nothing happens, but if something were to happen, it is possible she would need to resign so that Maryland has a full time Senator. In any case, it's a hypothetical, not why Hogan would be re-elected.

d.  The point is, Republicans had a very good 2014 and frustration with the state Democratic establishment is at a considerable high point. I'm making the example that Republicans have become stronger, because of resentment over the state Democratic Party's policies in Maryland. This is not an unreasonable statement and there are other data points (+8 R in the state house, +2 in the State Senate).

e. Sometimes being there too long is not a benefit to understanding changing attitudes. If you've never been challenged in the course of your long career, you're unprepared for a real challenge. That's how I view the entire state Democratic Party.

Also, the rain tax was a dumb political move by Democrats. Of course, Hogan had the right to attack the dumb tax. It became a great symbol to defeat Brown. That wasn't antagonistic, it was a smart electoral move.

[warandwar]

a. As I said, Hogan's a master of the new medium of communication - which is social media. The internet, Facebook, twitter, and so on is the new "television." Hogan has mastered that and I think it helped him in 2014. I think it will definitely boost his re-election margin by a few points. So yes.

b.  I would regard Peter Franchot as more from the conservative Democratic wing, but I'm saying Hogan has done serious outreach to Democrats since being elected governor. I'm not just citing Franchot, although Franchot is one example. You're overlooking the fact that Hogan has been assiduous about reaching out to Democrats and coopting people he can work with. That's an upgrade from Bob Ehrlich.

c. She's 78. She'll be 80 in 2016 and 86 by the time her 2022 term ends. I'm not saying anything will happen and I hope nothing happens, but if something were to happen, it is possible she would need to resign so that Maryland has a full time Senator. In any case, it's a hypothetical, not why Hogan would be re-elected.

d.  The point is, Republicans had a very good 2014 and frustration with the state Democratic establishment is at a considerable high point. I'm making the example that Republicans have become stronger, because of resentment over the state Democratic Party's policies in Maryland. This is not an unreasonable statement and there are other data points (+8 R in the state house, +2 in the State Senate).

e. Sometimes being there too long is not a benefit to understanding changing attitudes. If you've never been challenged in the course of your long career, you're unprepared for a real challenge. That's how I view the entire state Democratic Party.

Also, the rain tax was a dumb political move by Democrats. Of course, Hogan had the right to attack the dumb tax. It became a great symbol to defeat Brown. That wasn't antagonistic, it was a smart electoral move.

Never mind, I just saw Larry Hogan's tweet of a picture of him having lunch with Sen. Mikulsi. He even added "#bipartisan"! Wow, what a wonderful man. His social media skills are truly greater than any Democrat in Maryland. I can see how this sway his reelection by "a few points"!

Yes, Hogan has in fact talked to Democrats. It's by far too early to say he's "coopted" any of them, whatever that would entail. I really don't think it's possible to already compare Hogan and Ehrlich's governing style when Hogan hasn't even been sworn in yet.

The Republicans' gains in the House and Senate came from defeating conservative Democrats, leaving a more polarized legislature, to use a trendy term. This is not going to make it easier for Hogan to point out his super bipartisaness. Please don't insult Miller's intelligence. If he was really "sclerotic", he wouldn't have let marriage equality, the minimum wage raise or the death penalty through the Senate. From experience, I can tell you that the state Democratic party is certainly not hidebound. The Maryland Republican party, on the other hand, isn't exactly vibrant.

Despite what the "algae-rights" lobby might say, the stormwater management fee was not a "dumb political move." Brown not explaining what it did was a bad move. O'Malley himself gave some side-eye to Brown for this. (He saw his victory in 2010 as based on his ability to explain why he needed to raise taxes.)

[The_Doctor]

Hogan will be re-elected, barring a national blue wave in 2018 (I don't expect that, even if we win the White House in 2016).

He's a pretty social media adept governor, and I don't see his opposition on social media that well. I also think he's co-opted well elements of the Democratic establishment (Peter Franchot, for example). The Democratic establishment in Maryland is pretty much like the Democratic establishment in DC right after Reagan's victory. (Hogan is no RR). The point is, they are sclerotic, so used to power, and so used to the status quo that a smart Republican can run circles around them. Miller and Busch have never really been challenged from the right. Ehrlich was a confrontational governor who was derided as a one-off, Hogan's the confirmation that Maryland is capable of electing Republican governors if they're angry with the status quo.

I think he's learned from Ehrlich and will be the first Maryland Republican to be re-elected governor since Theodore McKeldin in the 1950s. I also think that his re-election - if smartly done - can pull Republicans to over 40% of the State House. Which means his vetoes get sustained in 2019. Don't forget, the number of county executives who are Republican in this state is among the highest levels in decades. There is a palpable frustration with the entrenched Democratic establishment; while I don't expect this state to flip Republican or anything, I can see Hogan's brand succeeding here.

Remember, nobody here was happy about the "rain tax" and what it symbolized about the O'Malley Administration. The DMV is a joke and there's widespread frustration about state government. If there wasn't, Hogan wouldn't have even breached 45% of the vote. It's as simple as that. Voters aren't ready to become Republicans or even vote for a Republican President or Senator (though if Mikulski steps down, due to old age, and Hogan appoints a smart moderate/liberal replacement, I hold out hope). But I don't think Maryland voters are happy with the status quo and are willing to tolerate Hogan's brand of conservatism.

In short, my prediction: he'll be remembered as a far more successful governor than what people here think.

To quote the Rock, do you really think that:
a: being more "social media adept" has any impact on elections? Like John Q. Public is going to the voter booth and thinking "well I am a follower of Hogan's vine and his thigh gap is bae"
b: Franchot represents the "Democratic establishment" ( look at any of his votes on the public works committee, there's a bunch of 2-1 votes where O'malley and Kopp vote for something and Franchot votes against because of some finnicky complaint. He was also very much against slot machines)
c: that Mikulski would resign early in her term, you know, because she would gladly give up a seat to a Republican
d: that the number of Republican county executives means anything at all (remember Romney won 19/24 counties in 2012). 1st of all, only 8 counties of Maryland have county executives. In 2014 Republicans picked up Wicomico and Howard, while Democrats won Frederick, which just switched to an executive system. Wicomico isn't exactly an urban metropolis and Kittleman's win in Howard IMO was entirely personal.
e: that Miller and Busch are such unskilled politicians that Hogan can be Carcetti to their Royce. You don't become the longest serving State Senate President in American history without having political skills.

To say that Hogan won't be antagonistic is absurd if you suggest that the anti-impervious surface fee (or pro-asphalt) lobby is so large. This campaign is entirely based on bashing environmentalists for wanting to do something about our bay. I'd say taking a reasonable way of financing stormwater runoff protections and turning it into a "ZOMG RAIN TAX" is fairly antagonistic!

k. Let's review Hogan when he has two sessions under his belt. The first one will be his maiden one and the second one would be good to see if he learns from year one as a rookie governor.

[Frodo]

The Republicans' gains in the House and Senate came from defeating conservative Democrats, leaving a more polarized legislature, to use a trendy term.

If Republicans were to gain every rural and exurban seat in the General Assembly currently held by Democrats, how many do you think there would be in either the House or Senate?

Here are the current numbers:

House

Democrats: 90
Republicans: 51

Senate

Democrats: 33
Republicans: 14

Assuming Republicans remain in the minority regardless, would there be enough to uphold vetoes by a fellow Republican governor? Or perhaps to filibuster bills championed by a Democratic governor?     

[warandwar]

The Republicans' gains in the House and Senate came from defeating conservative Democrats, leaving a more polarized legislature, to use a trendy term.

If Republicans were to gain every rural and exurban seat in the General Assembly currently held by Democrats, how many do you think there would be in either the House or Senate?

Here are the current numbers:

House

Democrats: 90
Republicans: 51

Senate

Democrats: 33
Republicans: 14

Assuming Republicans remain in the minority regardless, would there be enough to uphold vetoes by a fellow Republican governor? Or perhaps to filibuster bills championed by a Democratic governor?     

So in the House, I believe the only Democrats who represent rural/exurban areas are Sheree Sample-Hughes (37A) and Mary Ann Lisanti (34A). Possibly Krimm and Young from Frederick's 3A and the three from district 28 (Charles). 37A is majority-minority and Sample-Hughes was unopposed in the general. Charles is trending Democratic and 28's Delegates faced minimal opposition. That leaves Lisanti and the two Democrats from Frederick. If they all lose, that'd bring the Democrats down to 87, which is still a supermajority. Add in maybe Bromwell's seat (D8) that's 86, still a supermajority.

In the Senate, we have Jim Mathias in D38, Ronald Young in D3, maybe Astle in D30, Middleton in Charles's 28th. If Young, Mathias and Astle lose, that's 30/47, which is still a supermajority. The only other Senator in a swingy district is Brochin, I think, so if he loses too, that's 29, which still works.

The Democrats really aren't in a position to lose their supermajority.

[MATTROSE94]

Baker will probably have an easy reelection, though Hogan will have a much tougher fight on his hands. It may even be in his best interest to not even run for reelection and instead run for the open senate seat if Mikulski retires.

That's ridiculous. 1st of all, Mikulski's seat is up in 2016, so I think you meant to say Cardin's. Do you really think Hogan will have an easier race for Senate than for Governor? Most of Hogan's campaigning was around state-based issues, and the reasons why he was elected Governor have nothing to do with national politics. There's value in incumbancy, remember. Hogan will lose that value if he runs for Senate.
And I hope you didn't mean 2016, because presidential-year turnout will never elect a Republican in Maryland.

Actually I daresay the right "type" of Republican could win in Maryland in a great Republican Presidential year.

That would be a sign of a realignment if it happened.  Maybe if Rand Paul was running and lost MD by only 5%.  Otherwise, I just can't see it.  Maryland is way too urban to do the split ticket Senate thing.

I meant as a Senator, not Presidential election. Also I had meant to say the person would most likely be an incumbent Senator.

I didn't mean to say a hypothetically perfect Republican would never win Maryland. I meant in reality, in Earth-616, there are 0 Republicans in Maryland who could a: get elected to the Senate in a midterm and then b: win reelection.

2018 will be a good year for Republicans imo. I feel like Hogan can at least hold his numbers from last year.

In terms of the senate, 2016 is sfae Dem, 2018 is probably at least lean Dem.

Maybe Boyd Rutherford will pull a Michael Steele and run for Senate in 2018 if he proves to be a popular Lieutenant Governor.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They'll probably both do fine. The reason: they both have Democratic Legislatures. For some reason, Democrats always work with Republican executives, whereas a Democratic governor with a Republican legislature will never get anything done because Republicans refuse to do anything so they can call him/her a do-nothing governor.

Bipartisanship is always a one way street.

[DS0816]

Honestly, governors in deep red/blue states of the opposite party seem to end up being quite popular. They're constrained by the state legislature from doing anything too radical and more or less are forced to work with them. Brad Henry, Dave Fruedenthal, Kathleen Sebelius, Jodi Rell, Mike Beebe etc were all popular.

Yep. Charlie Baker disowned the national GOP before the election and talks like an open-minded technocrat. He'll do fine and probably win reelection easily in 2018.

Marvelous.

Now is anyone still believing the Democrats, with President Obama, were seriously pissed over having lost those 2014 midterms?

[Lief 🗽]

Hogan has already declared war on the gays and transes: http://equalitymaryland.org/governor-hogans-first-24-hours-start-on-the-wrong-foot-for-lgbt-maryland/

[free my dawg]

Hogan has already declared war on the gays and transes: http://equalitymaryland.org/governor-hogans-first-24-hours-start-on-the-wrong-foot-for-lgbt-maryland/

Well, so much for that.

[smoltchanov]

Hogan has already declared war on the gays and transes: http://equalitymaryland.org/governor-hogans-first-24-hours-start-on-the-wrong-foot-for-lgbt-maryland/

Well, so much for that.

I don't think it must be considered in such apocaliptic terms. Hogan is a moderate conservative, whose primary concrern is economy and taxes (IMHO - rightfully so). He is not virulently anti-gay, but "gay agenda" surely is not of high priority for him...

P.S. Guys, let's not forget that most men and women are still "straight". And that these people have rights too. And they must be respected and preserved no less then  rights of LGBT people.. Some liberals seem to forget about that...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hogan has already declared war on the gays and transes: http://equalitymaryland.org/governor-hogans-first-24-hours-start-on-the-wrong-foot-for-lgbt-maryland/

Well, so much for that.

P.S. Guys, let's not forget that most men and women are still "straight". And that these people have rights too. And they must be respected and preserved no less then  rights of LGBT people.. Some liberals seem to forget about that...

Lol, wtf.

Anyway hogan just stripped regulations from coal plants and fertilisers. hooray for the 'moderate' Republican!

[Vega]

So pro-business Republican turns out to be pro-business.

Sorry Maryland.

[Maxwell]

From the outset, Larry Hogan is looking a little more John Glenn Beall then Theodore McKeldin.

[smoltchanov]

So pro-business Republican turns out to be pro-business.

Sorry Maryland.

To his credit - he never tried to hide it. And most Marylanders, who came to vote, agreed with that. So - they got what they voted for..

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hogan has already declared war on the gays and transes: http://equalitymaryland.org/governor-hogans-first-24-hours-start-on-the-wrong-foot-for-lgbt-maryland/

Well, so much for that.

I don't think it must be considered in such apocaliptic terms. Hogan is a moderate conservative, whose primary concrern is economy and taxes (IMHO - rightfully so). He is not virulently anti-gay, but "gay agenda" surely is not of high priority for him...

P.S. Guys, let's not forget that most men and women are still "straight". And that these people have rights too. And they must be respected and preserved no less then  rights of LGBT people.. Some liberals seem to forget about that...

1964: "Guys, let's not forget that most men and women are still white.  And that these people have rights too.  And they must be respected and preserved no less than the rights of black people.  Some liberals seem to forget about that..."

[warandwar]

Hogan's already walked these back. He reissued the ex. order with a gender identity provision and he let the medicaid regs be printed after a bs explanation that he wanted more time to review them because they had been pushed too quickly by O'malley or something like that.
He's yet to let the environmental regulations be printed yet, though.

[smoltchanov]

That confirms my belief that he (Hogan) will govern as "slightly right of center" or, at most "pragmatic moderate conservative". Not so bad by present "standards" of Republican party. Whether that will be enough to get reelected in 2018 - too early to tell, but i read a lot of info, that, in addition to low turnout and bleak campaign on Brown's part, a lot of (usually Democratic-leaning) middle class Maryland voters (many of whom voted for Obama and O'Malley recently) soured on Democratic majority on taxes and other economical issues, and went rather heavily for Hogan in November..

[warandwar]

That confirms my belief that he (Hogan) will govern as "slightly right of center" or, at most "pragmatic moderate conservative". Not so bad by present "standards" of Republican party. Whether that will be enough to get reelected in 2018 - too early to tell, but i read a lot of info, that, in addition to low turnout and bleak campaign on Brown's part, a lot of (usually Democratic-leaning) middle class Maryland voters (many of whom voted for Obama and O'Malley recently) soured on Democratic majority on taxes and other economical issues, and went rather heavily for Hogan in November..

Not sure what the difference between "slightly right of center" and "pragmatically moderate conservative" is or why you need so many air quotes, but I think to actually be those, Hogan would need to not have done this to begin with. Calling "backsies" doesn't make you "pragmatic," at least by my "standards."

[smoltchanov]

That confirms my belief that he (Hogan) will govern as "slightly right of center" or, at most "pragmatic moderate conservative". Not so bad by present "standards" of Republican party. Whether that will be enough to get reelected in 2018 - too early to tell, but i read a lot of info, that, in addition to low turnout and bleak campaign on Brown's part, a lot of (usually Democratic-leaning) middle class Maryland voters (many of whom voted for Obama and O'Malley recently) soured on Democratic majority on taxes and other economical issues, and went rather heavily for Hogan in November..

Not sure what the difference between "slightly right of center" and "pragmatically moderate conservative" is or why you need so many air quotes, but I think to actually be those, Hogan would need to not have done this to begin with. Calling "backsies" doesn't make you "pragmatic," at least by my "standards."

I am sure your and my standards are different. And both are different from Hogan's. So, every statement made here must be considered in context of who makes that statement. For "flaming progressive" Hogan is, surely, almost "reactionary", for far-rightist - almost RINO, for me -  ... i already made my opinion...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

P.S. Guys, let's not forget that most men and women are still "straight". And that these people have rights too. And they must be respected and preserved no less then  rights of LGBT people.. Some liberals seem to forget about that...

#WarOnStraights

[The Other Castro]

P.S. Guys, let's not forget that most men and women are still "straight". And that these people have rights too. And they must be respected and preserved no less then  rights of LGBT people.. Some liberals seem to forget about that...

I'm pretty sure most liberals are straight as well...

[Rockefeller GOP]

So pro-business Republican turns out to be pro-business.

Sorry Maryland.

Was Hogan ever not open about being pro-business?  Being pro-business would put him in line with the vast majority of Republicans over the party's long history...