Baker will probably have an easy reelection, though Hogan will have a much tougher fight on his hands. It may even be in his best interest to not even run for reelection and instead run for the open senate seat if Mikulski retires.
That's ridiculous. 1st of all, Mikulski's seat is up in 2016, so I think you meant to say Cardin's. Do you really think Hogan will have an easier race for Senate than for Governor? Most of Hogan's campaigning was around state-based issues, and the reasons why he was elected Governor have nothing to do with national politics. There's value in incumbancy, remember. Hogan will lose that value if he runs for Senate.
And I hope you didn't mean 2016, because presidential-year turnout will never elect a Republican in Maryland.
That would be a sign of a realignment if it happened. Maybe if Rand Paul was running and lost MD by only 5%. Otherwise, I just can't see it. Maryland is way too urban to do the split ticket Senate thing.
