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Author Topic: Republicans and Democrats. Was there ever a point...  (Read 17638 times)
nick
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« on: April 19, 2005, 10:02:43 pm »
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For Republicans:

Was there ever a point during the 2004 campaign/election were you said to yourself, "Damn, we might lose this thing."

For Democrats:

Was there ever a point during the 2004 campaign/election were you said to yourself, "Damn, we might actually win this thing!"

When and Why?
« Last Edit: April 19, 2005, 10:04:31 pm by nickshepDEM »Logged
Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2005, 10:19:47 pm »
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Based on what I saw here during the 2004 campaign, the only people I saw doubting that their candidate would win Boss Tweed (Democrat) and the infamous mypalfish (Republican, maybe).  I'm sure there was someone here or there who thought their candidate might lose from time to time, but these were the only two consistent ones.

I always predicted around a 2-4 point Bush win and for once in my life I was actually right on something.

I will admit that I thought the election could be a nailbiter after the Dem Convention and before the 1st debate, I thought Bush might win by 5-7 points if he defeated Kerry in the first debate, but otherwise that was always my prediction.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2005, 10:42:57 pm »
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Only on election night.  I was watching returns from Ohio and I was worried that there were too many Bush counties that had been included in the total and we didn't have enough votes to make it when Cuyahoga reported.  Fortunately, we did Smiley

For Republicans:

Was there ever a point during the 2004 campaign/election were you said to yourself, "Damn, we might lose this thing."

For Democrats:

Was there ever a point during the 2004 campaign/election were you said to yourself, "Damn, we might actually win this thing!"

When and Why?
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Erc
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2005, 10:51:13 pm »
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At two points:

Around August 10, after the Democratic convention, and while Kerry had a 1-2 point lead in the polls, I was beginning to think that Ohio was looking more and more desperate, and that we could very well lose this thing.  Of course, by about five days before the Republican Convention, this feeling evaporated, and for the next two months I was convinced that Bush would win the election.

Until, of course, I started hearing the exit poll results at about 2-3 pm on November 2nd.  I began to think that this was going to be like 2000 all over again (in the sense of the 2-3 point Bush lead died on the day itself), and that Kerry would squeak away with this one.  Unlike back in August, where it was just an idle thought (and I thought I could manage a Kerry presidency), this just came as a total shock to me...I had known that Bush would win for the past two months, it couldn't just reverse like that...

I then proceeded to take a nap, have dinner, and then sat down to watch the election returns come in...and I was happy.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2005, 12:20:56 am »
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I didn't vote for Bush, but no, I never doubted he would win. Not my style.
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Beet
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2005, 12:22:47 am »
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Based on what I saw here during the 2004 campaign, the only people I saw doubting that their candidate would win Boss Tweed (Democrat) and the infamous mypalfish (Republican, maybe).  I'm sure there was someone here or there who thought their candidate might lose from time to time, but these were the only two consistent ones.

I had consistently predicted a Bush win since November 2003.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2005, 12:44:30 am »
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Based on what I saw here during the 2004 campaign, the only people I saw doubting that their candidate would win Boss Tweed (Democrat) and the infamous mypalfish (Republican, maybe).  I'm sure there was someone here or there who thought their candidate might lose from time to time, but these were the only two consistent ones.

I had consistently predicted a Bush win since November 2003.

Must've missed ya, Beet.  For some reason, I only remember Tweed and mypalfish.
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Beet
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« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2005, 01:20:25 am »
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Based on what I saw here during the 2004 campaign, the only people I saw doubting that their candidate would win Boss Tweed (Democrat) and the infamous mypalfish (Republican, maybe).  I'm sure there was someone here or there who thought their candidate might lose from time to time, but these were the only two consistent ones.

I had consistently predicted a Bush win since November 2003.

Must've missed ya, Beet.  For some reason, I only remember Tweed and mypalfish.

Tweed was by far the most vocal about it, I don't remember about mypalfish. I'm sure a lot of other Dems thought Bush would win too but didn't say it. Heres an interesting discussion from way back when.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2005, 07:04:53 am »
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Based on what I saw here during the 2004 campaign, the only people I saw doubting that their candidate would win Boss Tweed (Democrat) and the infamous mypalfish (Republican, maybe).  I'm sure there was someone here or there who thought their candidate might lose from time to time, but these were the only two consistent ones.

I had consistently predicted a Bush win since November 2003.

Must've missed ya, Beet.  For some reason, I only remember Tweed and mypalfish.

Tweed was by far the most vocal about it, I don't remember about mypalfish. I'm sure a lot of other Dems thought Bush would win too but didn't say it. Heres an interesting discussion from way back when.

I will now accept my accolades by mypalfish


Perhaps the best part is that WalterMitty, who many call a RINO, started the taunting that lasted a long time.
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phk
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« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2005, 11:31:41 am »
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I always had a Bush victory planned out, but the degree was always varying, from +4 in the PV to -0.5 in the PV.

But I knew he would win.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2005, 01:17:05 pm »
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Based on what I saw here during the 2004 campaign, the only people I saw doubting that their candidate would win Boss Tweed (Democrat) and the infamous mypalfish (Republican, maybe).  I'm sure there was someone here or there who thought their candidate might lose from time to time, but these were the only two consistent ones.

I always predicted around a 2-4 point Bush win and for once in my life I was actually right on something.

I will admit that I thought the election could be a nailbiter after the Dem Convention and before the 1st debate, I thought Bush might win by 5-7 points if he defeated Kerry in the first debate, but otherwise that was always my prediction.

Not true.  I had very severe doubts at some points.
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2005, 01:38:26 pm »
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July and August.  I didn't how big the RNC bounce would be; I was expecting a much closer September.  After that, it was smooth sailing.
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J. J.

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nini2287
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2005, 02:27:49 am »
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I thought we would win from April-August.  From August through mid-October, I expected a Bush win and in the last couple of weeks I expected Bush to win the PV and Kerry to win the EV (although this was probably wishful thinking)
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Hitchabrut
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2005, 07:13:27 pm »
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Always expected Bush. I was most worried after the debates, but I never really expected Kerry to win.
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2005, 08:23:39 am »
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I almost always thought Bush would win. I had some slight doubts when Frank Luntz started saying they'd voted on the economy (but it turned out they hadn't).
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Akno21
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« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2005, 08:37:39 am »
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I was unimpressed with anyone throughout the Democratic primaries, especially Kerry, so I thought Bush was going to win up until about May or so. As I started to research the maps more, I realized, "Hey, if we win Ohio, we can win the thing."

I think I accepted sooner that a Democrat can win an election than I did that John Kerry could. By the end of the race, I did think John Kerry was Presidential material, but for a while I was unsure. I still had my doubts about Kerry. I think my first moment of realizing that there really could be a President Kerry was early July or so, as I watched more of him. (I actually think his speaking style is very Presidential, that might have had an impact). I was never confident though. Throughout the campaign, I would always annoy fellow Dems (in RL) by saying Bush was going to win.

By the fall, I'd put on the pretty face that Kerry was going to win, probably mainly for school, since as the leading (only) politically inclined guy there, I didn't want to go marching around saying Bush had the thing wrapped up. I wasn't as down as everyone else in September, but after the first debate I actually had hope that Americans would see through Bush, but it didn't happen. I said I thought Kerry would win, and I thought he had a very good chance of winning, but I always had this nagging feeling in the back of my mind Bush would. I didn't trust the USA. The back of my mind was right.
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Blerpiez
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« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2005, 02:27:05 pm »
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After the first debate, I expected Kerry would win closely.  Up till a few days before election day, I thought he could still likely win.
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« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2005, 05:29:02 pm »
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When I purchased my 2004 Calendar on Christmas Eve 2003 I marked Election Day with writing "Bush Loses Reelection." Smiley
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dazzleman
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« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2005, 08:31:43 pm »
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For Republicans:

Was there ever a point during the 2004 campaign/election were you said to yourself, "Damn, we might lose this thing."


Sure.  I thought that in the spring, with the Abu Ghraib scandal and the increasing violence in Iraq.  Then in June, there were some economic numbers that weren't so great.

After Labor Day, Bush opened up a decent lead, but I know how fast those things can evaporate when there are 2 months to election day.  Then Bush "lost" the first debate, and that hurt his lead.

Going into the home stretch, Kerry seemed to be gaining, and the weekend before the election, I thought there was at least an even chance that Bush would lose.

Bush of course ended up being helped by CBS News' clumsy attempts to hurt him with their falsified National Guard story.  Maybe that's even what put him over the top.

Then of course, election day had the faulty exit polling data released in the middle of the day that showed Bush losing.  By then, I was suspicious and decided to reserve judgment.  I remembered the manipulation of exit polling from 2000 and how it contributed to the mess in Florida, by calling the state for Gore while polls were still open in the heavily Republican panhandle.  I think the exit poll manipulation in 2004 ended up helping Bush, by motivating his supporters to get out and vote.

In the early evening, I watched the "expert" liberal pundits talking about how it would be impossible for the president to win, but at that point, strangely enough, I didn't believe them, and didn't get too upset with the early results.  I was very pleased and relieved when I saw the tide turning and the president won re-election.

The biggest drawback to the Bush victory was the it clears the way for Hillary Clinton in 2008.  A victory by that woman would be an absolute calamity for the country, and the fact that Bush's 2004 victory made a presidency by Madame Clinton more likely is the worst side effect of the 2004 results.
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bgwah
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« Reply #19 on: April 25, 2005, 09:54:16 pm »
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I'm pretty sure I thought Bush would win for at least the few months before the election. Before that--- I don't remember! John Kerry was somehwat new to me.
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« Reply #20 on: April 27, 2005, 10:55:37 pm »
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I never really doubted it. Smiley In like August or September, I thought, for a second, "What if Kerry wins?" That's the only time I ever thought that.
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Defarge
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« Reply #21 on: April 28, 2005, 09:08:16 am »
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I was sure of a Kerry victory until the end.  There were some points after the RNC where I was losing hope, but I regained my optimism after the first debate. 
Then on election night I lost my hope again.
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jaichind
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« Reply #22 on: April 29, 2005, 08:45:26 pm »
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Was sure that Bush will win until the day before the election when I expected Kerry to win the EV but Bush to win the PV.  Guess I was wrong.
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« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2005, 02:11:47 pm »
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not until election day.

i was always sure of a bush victory.  however, when some of the exit polls were leaked during the day on election day, i began to prepare myself for the possiblity of bush losing.
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« Reply #24 on: May 14, 2005, 05:45:40 pm »
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The 2004 election was the most stable I ever seen from a polling point of view.

The thing was dead even till about the end of July.
Kerry was up a point or two in August
Bush was up maybe 4 in September, and that settled back to 2.5 at the end.

Just about all of the very minor change wasn't even really change either, it was simply the historical pattern of various parts of each party's base tuning it according to more or less historical patterns.

I saw a graphic that said that if you just count the three states that actually changed hands (NH, IOWA, NM) the parties spent $1.2 billion to change 20,000 votes.

I was personally surprised how solid Bush's base turned out to be.  I expected a very modest Kerry win till say maybe the end of July or so, but the DEm convention didn't change any minds either way, and the GOP actually "got religion" (pun intended) regarding their voter turnout efforts and a very modest Bush advcantage never really faded after that.
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