Republicans and Democrats. Was there ever a point...

[J. J.]

July and August.  I didn't how big the RNC bounce would be; I was expecting a much closer September.  After that, it was smooth sailing.

[J. J.]

In May of 2004, this what I expected:

DNC:  Kerry gets a 4-5 point boost, which erodes to dead even for the RNC.

RNC:  Bush goes up 4-5, which evaporates in mid September, about the time of the first debate.

Debates:  Kerry up by 5 at the end, but this drops to a dead on election day, with Bush taking the EV and barely the popular vote.

When Kerry didn't get the long term and strong post convention bounce, I was pretty sure Bush would win.  I was actually looking at the outside chance of a Bush landslide in early September.