Feingold- Johnson rematch

[emcee0]

Predict the margins of this possible scenario. I would predict Feingold by an upper single digit margin.

[Vosem]

Like in Wellstone v. Boschwitz, voters repeat their earlier decision more emphatically. In 2016 as an incumbent Johnson will crush Feingold even more overwhelmingly in the money race, and he'll have incumbency. Early polls will show him in danger, even trailing, but ultimately he'll win in the upper single digits.

That's my optimistic prediction. But there's really no way to know at this point.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Depends on whose on top of the ticket. If Walker is the GOP nominee Republicans might have a shot at winning Wisconsin which would help Johnson also. Otherwise i'd say that with election year turnout Feingold is the favorite to win narrowly. Plus a lot of the netroots love him and would probably make winning that seat back a top priority.

[emcee0]

You seem to be forgetting that this is Ron Johnson, a tea party conservative in liberal leaning Wisconsin, and is no where near the middle class fighter like Paul Wellstone was in the senate and will never be as popular as Wellstone. A tea party incumbent facing re election in a state with a liberal leaning electorate in a heavy presidential turnouts will be facing very tough odds.

[Xing]

A lot will depend on how competitive Wisconsin ends up being in the presidential election, and who's running. All things being equal, my guess would be about the inverse of what happened in 2010; Feingold winning 52-47.

[ElectionsGuy]

51-48 Feingold

[Maxwell]

If the election was now? 53-45 Feingold, but obviously that changes during the campaign.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Russ would kick the bastard's ass big time.

[Free Bird]

Russ would kick the bastard's ass big time.

PLEASE RUSS WE BID YOU RETURN

[Vosem]

You seem to be forgetting that this is Ron Johnson, a tea party conservative in liberal leaning Wisconsin, and is no where near the middle class fighter like Paul Wellstone was in the senate and will never be as popular as Wellstone. A tea party incumbent facing re election in a state with a liberal leaning electorate in a heavy presidential turnouts will be facing very tough odds.

Wisconsin isn't a state with a liberal-leaning electorate, and Wellstone was never popular: he was perceived as being to the left of his state, and received strong challenges in 1996 and 2002. Boschwitz in 1996 went too far trying to portray Wellstone as left-leaning (accusing him of supporting flag burning) and the strategy backfired; but in 2002 Wellstone was in a statistical dead heat with Norm Coleman in polling, and considering polls that year overestimated Democrats he would very likely have lost had he survived.

[free my dawg]

Feingold by mid to low singles.

[IceSpear]

I actually think there would be more Republican Nominee-Feingold voters than Hillary-Johnson voters (though both would be pretty negligible). Johnson's best hope is that a Republican carries Wisconsin in the presidential race and drags him over the finish line, which is a pretty tall order. In other words, he better pray for a huge GOP wave and/or that Walker runs and wins the nomination.

If Walker is the nominee: Feingold by 1 point
If Walker isn't the nominee: Feingold by 7-9 points

[ElectionsGuy]

I actually think there would be more Republican Nominee-Feingold voters than Hillary-Johnson voters (though both would be pretty negligible). Johnson's best hope is that a Republican carries Wisconsin in the presidential race and drags him over the finish line, which is a pretty tall order. In other words, he better pray for a huge GOP wave and/or that Walker runs and wins the nomination.

If Walker is the nominee: Feingold by 1 point
If Walker isn't the nominee: Feingold by 7-9 points

No

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feingold wins 52-48

[IceSpear]

I actually think there would be more Republican Nominee-Feingold voters than Hillary-Johnson voters (though both would be pretty negligible). Johnson's best hope is that a Republican carries Wisconsin in the presidential race and drags him over the finish line, which is a pretty tall order. In other words, he better pray for a huge GOP wave and/or that Walker runs and wins the nomination.

If Walker is the nominee: Feingold by 1 point
If Walker isn't the nominee: Feingold by 7-9 points

No

Obama won the state by 7 points in 2012. Hillary will probably do similarly against a non Wisconsinite. Assuming Johnson has less than or equal to the amount of crossover support that Feingold has, that's a perfectly reasonable prediction.

[Vega]

Feingold, he can win in Wisconsin.

[The_Doctor]

Depending if our man/woman for President carries the state against the Democrats or keeps it narrow.

GOP ticket keeps it close / takes the state: Johnson by 1-3%.
GOP ticket loses Wisconsin by 4%+: Feingold/D nominee by 4%.

Basically Johnson will run slightly behind the GOP presidential nominee's numbers. I don't expect him to run ahead. Maybe about 40,000 vote differential. If Walker's the GOP nominee and carries Wisconsin, he'll probably drag Johnson across the finish line.

A Rust Belt Republican will probably drag a ton of endangered Republicans across the finish line, especially if he wins the Presidency.

[Mr. Smith]

Feingold 53-46 if the Dems sweep it.

Feingold 51-47 if it's close or GOP has coattails

[Mr. Illini]

Feingold is pretty popular in Wisconsin and Johnson is easy to paint as out-of-touch and extreme. Feingold has always been seen as very in-touch with Wisconsin. He will win by 5-6 points.

Something like this:

[Frodo]

It's Wisconsin, and it's going to be a presidential election year....Feingold wins narrowly. 

[ElectionsGuy]

I actually think there would be more Republican Nominee-Feingold voters than Hillary-Johnson voters (though both would be pretty negligible). Johnson's best hope is that a Republican carries Wisconsin in the presidential race and drags him over the finish line, which is a pretty tall order. In other words, he better pray for a huge GOP wave and/or that Walker runs and wins the nomination.

If Walker is the nominee: Feingold by 1 point
If Walker isn't the nominee: Feingold by 7-9 points

No

Obama won the state by 7 points in 2012. Hillary will probably do similarly against a non Wisconsinite. Assuming Johnson has less than or equal to the amount of crossover support that Feingold has, that's a perfectly reasonable prediction.

I hope were not already playing Hillary coattails hackism with the Senate races this early. An incumbent does not just go down so easily in a state that's only 3 points left of the national average. We're being too optimistic here.

Feingold is pretty popular in Wisconsin and Johnson is easy to paint as out-of-touch and extreme. Feingold has always been seen as very in-touch with Wisconsin. He will win by 5-6 points.

Totally, except when he lost his seat to Johnson in the first place

[henster]

I think Feingold is done with politics and Kind will be the nominee.

[Mr. Illini]

I actually think there would be more Republican Nominee-Feingold voters than Hillary-Johnson voters (though both would be pretty negligible). Johnson's best hope is that a Republican carries Wisconsin in the presidential race and drags him over the finish line, which is a pretty tall order. In other words, he better pray for a huge GOP wave and/or that Walker runs and wins the nomination.

If Walker is the nominee: Feingold by 1 point
If Walker isn't the nominee: Feingold by 7-9 points

No

Obama won the state by 7 points in 2012. Hillary will probably do similarly against a non Wisconsinite. Assuming Johnson has less than or equal to the amount of crossover support that Feingold has, that's a perfectly reasonable prediction.

I hope were not already playing Hillary coattails hackism with the Senate races this early. An incumbent does not just go down so easily in a state that's only 3 points left of the national average. We're being too optimistic here.

Feingold is pretty popular in Wisconsin and Johnson is easy to paint as out-of-touch and extreme. Feingold has always been seen as very in-touch with Wisconsin. He will win by 5-6 points.

Totally, except when he lost his seat to Johnson in the first place

Would you not say that Feingold is well-liked in Wisconsin. I understand he lost to the tea partier in the tea party year. My statement stands.

[IceSpear]

I actually think there would be more Republican Nominee-Feingold voters than Hillary-Johnson voters (though both would be pretty negligible). Johnson's best hope is that a Republican carries Wisconsin in the presidential race and drags him over the finish line, which is a pretty tall order. In other words, he better pray for a huge GOP wave and/or that Walker runs and wins the nomination.

If Walker is the nominee: Feingold by 1 point
If Walker isn't the nominee: Feingold by 7-9 points

No

Obama won the state by 7 points in 2012. Hillary will probably do similarly against a non Wisconsinite. Assuming Johnson has less than or equal to the amount of crossover support that Feingold has, that's a perfectly reasonable prediction.

I hope were not already playing Hillary coattails hackism with the Senate races this early. An incumbent does not just go down so easily in a state that's only 3 points left of the national average. We're being too optimistic here.

Feingold is pretty popular in Wisconsin and Johnson is easy to paint as out-of-touch and extreme. Feingold has always been seen as very in-touch with Wisconsin. He will win by 5-6 points.

Totally, except when he lost his seat to Johnson in the first place

Actually, I wasn't referring to coattails. I think we can all agree that Johnson isn't the type of politician who is going to attract a significant crossover vote, especially against a very strong opponent such as Feingold. Compare to Kirk, who even if he loses handily, we know he's going to get a pretty decent amount of crossovers. Therefore, the Wisconsin presidential result is going to be very closely correlated with the Senate vote. Yes, one candidate may outperform their presidential nominee by a bit (I personally think Feingold would be more likely to than Johnson, but I concede that point could certainly be argued), but it's probably not going to be a huge difference.

[emcee0]

So what do you all think now that Russ has officially announced?