Presidential Election 2016: Electoral Map

[Intell]

Predict, the electoral map for the 2016 presidential election.

[Intell]

My Prediction is,

Nebraska shade is wrong.

Hillary Clinton vs. Genuine Republican.

Hillary Clinton- 374 EV
Genuine Republican- 164 EV

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Clinton/Heinreich 313
Walker/Martinez  225

Walker's VP shortlist would come down to Susana Martinez and Rob Portman, and he picks Martinez hoping to appeal to hispanic voters and take away the perception that Republicans are the party of old white men. However Clinton picks Martin Heinreich anyway to balance the ticket out age wise even though he's from the same state as Martinez thus neutralizing it's effect.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Clinton/Heinreich 313
Walker/Martinez  225

Walker's VP shortlist would come down to Susana Martinez and Rob Portman, and he picks Martinez hoping to appeal to hispanic voters and take away the perception that Republicans are the party of old white men. However Clinton picks Martin Heinreich anyway to balance the ticket out age wise even though he's from the same state as Martinez thus neutralizing it's effect.

Give her Wisconsin and you'll have mine.

[Xing]

Here's what I think the battleground map will look like:

Dark red/blue = Safe D/R
Medium red/blue = Lean D/R
Pink/light blue = Tilt D/R
Gray = Toss-up

It's very early, but for now, here's my best guess for a no toss-up map:

[Free Bird]

Walker/Portman vs. Generic Democrat

[IceSpear]

Clinton/Kaine - 307, 50.8%
Walker/Martinez - 231, 47.0%

Close states (within 5%):

Wisconsin - 0.2%
Iowa - 0.8%
New Mexico - 1.2%
Colorado - 1.5%
Ohio - 1.7%
North Carolina - 1.8%
Florida - 3.2%
Virginia - 4.9%

[IceSpear]

Clinton/Heinreich 313
Walker/Martinez  225

Walker's VP shortlist would come down to Susana Martinez and Rob Portman, and he picks Martinez hoping to appeal to hispanic voters and take away the perception that Republicans are the party of old white men. However Clinton picks Martin Heinreich anyway to balance the ticket out age wise even though he's from the same state as Martinez thus neutralizing it's effect.

Give her Wisconsin and you'll have mine.

Same as mine too, except giving Walker Iowa.

[TDAS04]

Clinton/Kaine: 347
Pence/Kasich: 191

Same map as 2012, except for North Carolina. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CLINTON/HICKENLOOPER VS BUSH/WALKER 272-266

[Free Bird]

Amazing that the most generous Democrat is OC. But to you, no way Hillary wins Colorado

[Devils30]

I don't get why Rs think the country loves the Bush family and will easily elect Jeb president. In terms of the GOP trying to expand their percentage of the white vote, Bush is the worst candidate to do it. Most two time Obama voters in the Midwest liked Bill's presidency and did not like W. Good luck winning Wisconsin and Ohio. And even if Jeb can get more Latinos, we are talking about it going from 72-27 D to 65-35 D. Jeb is not getting what his brother got before 10 years of constant immigrant bashing. It's amazing how confident the GOP is in 2016, Clinton vs Bush could look a lot like the 1988 election and not in  a good way for the GOP.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Paul/Martinez: 298
Clinton/McCauliffe: 240

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

My neutral toss-up map isn't much changed from 2012, other than the Democrats may finally make Georgia competitive again like 2008 (but that's the only thing I'm uncertain about, it could easily be fool's gold to them like Pennsylvania is to the GOP).

A decent Clinton win:

303 - 235, 50% or so of the PV. I really doubt she'll exceed Obama's 2012 victory barring an insane GOPer or huge event; she's very overrated in the GE against even Bush. People are voting more for party now, and the grind of a GE campaign will wear down her approvals as people get the football team mentality.

A narrow GOP win:

I think Kasich could do this, or some other GOPer if Hillary randomly throws the race, the economy/foreign policy landscape takes a plunge, or some lackluster Dem is up. I'm guessing 50% of the PV, 279 - 259, with Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire all going pluralities, while NC breaks 51%, Florida rounds up to 51%, and Colorado just breaks 50%.


Again, it's still way too early to predict, so I'll just stick with the first toss-up map until we get candidates later this year.

[MATTROSE94]

CLINTON/HICKENLOOPER VS BUSH/WALKER 272-266

You don't think that Hillary Clinton would have a chance at winning Virginia in 2016?

[Devils30]

Clinton is favored in Virginia in 2016. I think Florida could be a Democratic PVI state unless Jeb wins the nomination.

[IceSpear]

CLINTON/HICKENLOOPER VS BUSH/WALKER 272-266

You don't think that Hillary Clinton would have a chance at winning Virginia in 2016?

it's OC

[Flake]

	Clinton	Bush	Others
Electoral Vote	318	220	0
Popular Vote	52%	47%	1%

[Fritz]

I am officially joining the Hillary Landsliders.  This will be our next election:

Clinton 384
Bush 154

[ElectionsGuy]

Hillary Clinton - 529
Jeb Bush - 9

Obviously.

[IceSpear]

I am officially joining the Hillary Landsliders.  This will be our next election:

Clinton 384
Bush 154

I could see this happening against Jeb, though I think Hillary would probably win IN before she won AZ/GA (Jeb likely improves among Hispanics even if only marginally, and GA is extremely polarized).

[Xing]

Hillary Clinton - 529
Jeb Bush - 9

Obviously.

LOL

[HAnnA MArin County]

Paul/Martinez: 298
Clinton/McCauliffe: 240

lolno

Hillary is NOT losing Pennsylvania.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Hillary Clinton - 529
Jeb Bush - 9

Obviously.

Jeb loses Idaho, Wyoming and Alabama but wins Colorado. lol

[Free Bird]

Hillary Clinton - 529
Jeb Bush - 9

Obviously.

Jeb loses Idaho, Wyoming and Alabama but wins Colorado. lol