Sandoval vs. Reid hypothetical

[IceSpear]

Guess the result.

I'd say that Reid goes down swinging, taking several pounds of flesh off Sandoval, but he's just too unpopular (and Sandoval too popular) to get it done in the end. Sandoval wins by 5-7 points, outperforming the Republican presidential nominee by double digits.

[Xing]

I'd say that Reid ends up far behind Sandoval (7-9 points) in the pre-election polling, but high Hispanic turnout makes it much closer, and Sandoval only wins by 2-3 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'd say that Reid ends up far behind Sandoval (7-9 points) in the pre-election polling, but high Hispanic turnout makes it much closer, and can win by 2-3 points.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd say that Reid ends up far behind Sandoval (7-9 points) in the pre-election polling, but high Hispanic turnout makes it much closer, and can win by 2-3 points.

[free my dawg]

I'd say that Reid ends up far behind Sandoval (7-9 points) in the pre-election polling, but high Hispanic turnout makes it much closer, and can win by 2-3 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Hickenlooper or a Western Gov on the ticket who survived the wave with high hispanic turnout, he made a plausible case to be the VP candidate and win in the Goldwater west like NV and CO.

[JRP1994]

RIP Harry Reid if Sandoval is his opponent. Reid would get Pryor'd.

[Kraxner]

Sandoval stomps Reid by 10-15%, Sandoval is going to get majority of white vote and there might be a chance that he loses the hispanic vote but not very close. However enough splitting ticket by hispanics who probably will vote democrat for president but vote republican just for sandoval is going to negate reid's slight win with hispanics.

[The Other Castro]

I'd say that ____ ends up far behind ____ (__-__ points) in the pre-election polling, but high ____ turnout makes it much closer, and can win by __-__ points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sandoval stomps Reid by 10-15%, Sandoval is going to get majority of white vote and there might be a chance that he loses the hispanic vote but not very close. However enough splitting ticket by hispanics who probably will vote democrat for president but vote republican just for sandoval is going to negate reid's slight win with hispanics.


CMom, Hilary and Reid machine will squeeze out as much money from those Vegas, Los Angeles donors as possible.  Although, Reid is pro life, he is a moderate just like Clinton is. And Bill did as much to get Reid elected over Ensign as Hillary will do.

Same Reid victory as he had in 1998 over Ensign 50.5 vote.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

This one winds up like Colorado, I think. Reid wages the nastiest, most aggressive campaign in the nation against Sandoval, and it tears him down as much as it does Sandoval. In the end, turnout/the machine makes it much closer than polls indicate, but all that means is that Sandoval wins by 2-4 rather than the 6-10 the polls indicated.

[DrScholl]

Reid will win, by 4-5%.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sandoval wins by at least 6. Double digits is possible.

[ElectionsGuy]

53-44 Sandoval

[Kevin]

I'm not entirely buying into the "Sandoval will curb stump" Reid scenario" like everyone else here.

I think if Hillary wins decisively in 2016 then Reid will survive. However, if the GOP nominee is elected President then Reid lose's to Sandoval.

Given how polarized things are and how each recent election for the past 10+ years has largely been winner take all I think a Sandoval Vs. Reid election hangs on what happens up ballot.

[IceSpear]

RIP Harry Reid if Sandoval is his opponent. Reid would get Pryor'd.

He'd probably get Pryor'd if the election were held today, but it's Harry Reid. He's not just going to lay down and die. He'll run an extremely aggressive scorched earth campaign.

[Mr. Smith]

Nah, Reid wins on paper...remember Mitch McConnell was supposed to be taken out last mid-terms and probably would've been Pryored if Grimes took him in 2012.

He'll run a scorched earth campaign and along with Clinton's work, end up making Sandoval look like Michelle Nunn as if it were Georgia.

Angle was also supposed to be enough to take out Reid in 2010...didn't happen.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nah, Reid wins on paper...remember Mitch McConnell was supposed to be taken out last mid-terms and probably would've been Pryored if Grimes took him in 2012.

He'll run a scorched earth campaign and along with Clinton's work, end up making Sandoval look like Michelle Nunn as if it were Georgia.

Angle was also supposed to be enough to take out Reid in 2010...didn't happen.

Sandoval is about 100 times better than Angle as a candidate.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Tea Party activist with a history of batty statements vs. wildly popular centrist governor who just won by more than a 2-1 margin. If Sandoval can't make up those 3%, Nevada is gone.

[DrScholl]

Winning a constitutional office big is not a guarantee of winning federally (Robin Carnahan, Alison Lundergan Grimes, etc). Assuming that Sandoval runs, Reid has a Republican lead Senate to run against and presidential turnout, which is a big plus for Reid right out of the gate.

[Mehmentum]

Reid has a chance if Hillary wins big at the top of the ticket, otherwise he'll put a big fight, but lose by a modest margin.

[Kevin]

Winning a constitutional office big is not a guarantee of winning federally (Robin Carnahan, Alison Lundergan Grimes, etc). Assuming that Sandoval runs, Reid has a Republican lead Senate to run against and presidential turnout, which is a big plus for Reid right out of the gate.

What about ticket splitters though?

Just because Nevada could go to HRC doesn't mean that a considerable number of people couldn't vote for her AND Sandoval.

[moderatevoter]

Nah, Reid wins on paper...remember Mitch McConnell was supposed to be taken out last mid-terms and probably would've been Pryored if Grimes took him in 2012.

Nevada is not Kentucky. I think you're giving the Grimes campaign way too much faith and optimism too.

[DrScholl]

Winning a constitutional office big is not a guarantee of winning federally (Robin Carnahan, Alison Lundergan Grimes, etc). Assuming that Sandoval runs, Reid has a Republican lead Senate to run against and presidential turnout, which is a big plus for Reid right out of the gate.

What about ticket splitters though?

Just because Nevada could go to HRC doesn't mean that a considerable number of people couldn't vote for her AND Sandoval.

There really aren't many recent cases of a Democratic incumbent losing a seat while their nominee for President carries the state. I never said that no one will vote for Sandoval and Clinton, but it's hard to see that much crossover happening.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'd say Sandoval wins by virtue of not being a flawed Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle.  Reid would've been gone in 2010 if it weren't for that.