Murphy vs. Rubio Hypothetical
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Author Topic: Murphy vs. Rubio Hypothetical  (Read 1719 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: January 01, 2015, 04:47:49 PM »
What do you think would happen if Murphy ran against Rubio (who opted to run from re-election instead of running for president)?

Of course, a lot would depend on what happens in Florida in the presidential election, but I'm guessing that even though Murphy puts up a fight, Rubio pulls it out in the end, 51-48.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2015, 04:49:58 PM »
Rubio likely wins by 4 or 5.
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windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2015, 04:54:11 PM »

This

Murphy won't run against him. He will likely run in 2018 if republicans win the white house in 2016.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2015, 04:58:42 PM »
Rubio wins easily.
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2015, 05:14:49 PM »
Depends on the national mood and the Republican nominee. Regardless, I don't think Murphy will run.
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badgate
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« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2015, 05:15:40 PM »
I want polls. POLLS!!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2015, 05:16:19 PM »

PPP had Rubio up 46/41 a few months ago.
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morgieb
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« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2015, 05:24:04 PM »
Yeah probs Rubio by a 52-48 margin or something. Given Murphy's like 35, he can probably wait anyway.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #8 on: January 01, 2015, 05:33:19 PM »
I'm thinking Bill Nelson retires in 2018 and Murphy runs to replace him.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
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« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2015, 05:38:44 PM »
Florida isn't the kind of state where a well-liked incumbent goes down solely because of the national mood. It's too centered, and the incumbent advantage would win out. Probably Rubio 52-48, unless he makes some gaffes or Republican turnout is REALLY depressed.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2015, 09:00:30 PM »
The complicating factor here would be that the inroads Dems have recently made among Cubans could potentially be thwarted by Rubio. I'd bet on Rubio by 1-3 points, but this would be a toss up.
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2015, 12:59:47 PM »
I think Murphy would have a chance but running is risky. If someone who's a non- FL candidate like Paul or Walker won the nomination, Hillary could do really well and run up the score. i doubt Rubio would move the needle in Dade County to anything better than 58-42%.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2015, 04:21:53 PM »
51-48 win for Rubio. Murphy is a hell of a challenger, and it will be a tossup race from start to finish.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #13 on: January 02, 2015, 04:31:01 PM »
I agree with Sanchez's numbers. 51-48. Though even that may be a tad optimistic for Rubio given his favorables. He really messed up a couple times by refusing to take a definitive stance initially - immigration being the major one.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2015, 11:28:04 AM »
Quote from: ChairmanSanchez on January 02, 2015, 04:21:53 PM
51-48 win for Rubio. Murphy is a hell of a challenger, and it will be a tossup race from start to finish.
That seems plausible, but if Rubio opts not to run for re-election and Allen West gets the Republican Senate nomination, would Murphy win?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2015, 11:36:26 AM »
Quote from: MATTROSE94 on January 16, 2015, 11:28:04 AM
Quote from: ChairmanSanchez on January 02, 2015, 04:21:53 PM
51-48 win for Rubio. Murphy is a hell of a challenger, and it will be a tossup race from start to finish.
That seems plausible, but if Rubio opts not to run for re-election and Allen West gets the Republican Senate nomination, would Murphy win?

Yeah, Murphy probably wins that re-match by at least 6 points.
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Dereich
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« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2015, 11:57:59 AM »
There are too many heavyweights waiting for higher office for Allen West to ever get by a primary. On that note, I'm still not sold on Murphy's quality in a serious political fight. Allen West is a crank who wasn't even running as an incumbent while his recent challenger was a no name state house member who was out-raised 4-1. Sure, he's survived in a Republican district, but would that be the case if he'd had an opponent with money who did NOT send moderates fleeing to the hills?
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2015, 02:45:19 PM »
Allen West lives in Texas now so he's not running.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2015, 03:47:17 PM »
Murphy wins by a hair.
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