When will Tennessee become competitive?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

With all this talk about Georgia or Arizona becoming competitive, why not Tennessee?

If the urban/rural split keeps expanding, shouldn't this help Democrats in Tennessee? Demographically, Tennessee isn't as rural as people think. It has 4 big cities - more than most states. Look what's happened in North Carolina.

Tennessee is certainly far more urban than Kentucky is.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Well, other than in states like IL, NY, MD, etc., I feel suburban voters often provide the margin of victory.  And Nashville's suburbs (especially wealthy ones far away from the city) are very Republican.

[IceSpear]

Not any time soon.

Speaking of Tennessee, has anyone else noticed that Democrats tend to poll surprisingly well there early on, only for them to lose in a landslide in the end? Obama was in single digits of Romney in multiple polls in early 2012. There was also apparently speculation in 2004 that Kerry could possibly win the state, with some polls showing him within striking distance. And of course there's Gore's fail there, along with being the only competitive Senate race to not fall to the Dems in 2006.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is like asking when will Maryland become competitive. It won't, it has moved farther and farther away from the Democrats in the past decade.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This is like asking when will Maryland become competitive. It won't, it has moved farther and farther away from the Democrats in the past decade.

Tennessee isn't getting any more rural. No state is.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is like asking when will Maryland become competitive. It won't, it has moved farther and farther away from the Democrats in the past decade.

Tennessee isn't getting any more rural. No state is.

Yes, because more urbanization clearly means more Democratic vote. Good job at proving your point.

[Sol]

Bandit, the 'urban' growth in TN is mostly suburbs. Think places like Southern Campbell County.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bandit, the 'urban' growth in TN is mostly suburbs. Think places like Southern Campbell County.

I don't think most of southern Campbell County is officially classed as urban. The city of Alexandria is probably classed as urban, but that's about it.

What will happen eventually is something like Franklin County, Ohio, which had a Democratic swing of more than 40 points in 25 years.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

What possible demographic benefits Democrats in TN in the future ? There is no explosion of minorities or any large scale migration from the north. The population is stagnant and southern whites are extremely hostile to Democrats.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Not any time soon.

Speaking of Tennessee, has anyone else noticed that Democrats tend to poll surprisingly well there early on, only for them to lose in a landslide in the end? Obama was in single digits of Romney in multiple polls in early 2012. There was also apparently speculation in 2004 that Kerry could possibly win the state, with some polls showing him within striking distance. And of course there's Gore's fail there, along with being the only competitive Senate race to not fall to the Dems in 2006.

LOL, that's so weird to think that TN was considered a vaguely swingish state. I vaguely remember in 2004, LA, WV , AK and TN being labelled as swing states. I guess as only 8 years before Clinton won them solidly in 1996. In 2000 , Gore lost them but was competitive.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Not any time soon.

Speaking of Tennessee, has anyone else noticed that Democrats tend to poll surprisingly well there early on, only for them to lose in a landslide in the end? Obama was in single digits of Romney in multiple polls in early 2012. There was also apparently speculation in 2004 that Kerry could possibly win the state, with some polls showing him within striking distance. And of course there's Gore's fail there, along with being the only competitive Senate race to not fall to the Dems in 2006.

LOL, that's so weird to think that TN was considered a vaguely swingish state. I vaguely remember in 2004, LA, WV , AK and TN being labelled as swing states. I guess as only 8 years before Clinton won them solidly in 1996. In 2000 , Gore lost them but was competitive.

The only reason TN was close in 2000 was because Gore was from there.

[Xing]

Maybe in a few decades, LOL. Even if urban areas are growing, is there state becoming more diverse? The increasing diversity in states like Virginia and North Carolina have transformed them from Republican-leaning states to swing states, and the same changes could eventually put Georgia in play. As far as I know, Tennessee is slightly whiter than America as a whole, and while there are a lot of AAs, the Hispanic population is quite small, and you don't see the same growth there that you see in states like Virginia. Since white Democrats in Tennessee have been trending increasingly Republican, the state has become out of reach for Democrats, and likely will be for some time.

[TDAS04]

South Carolina and Mississippi will become competitive before Tennessee is competitive again.  

[Mr. Smith]

2006 had Corker win by a very slight margin, explain that.

[TDAS04]

2006 had Corker win by a very slight margin, explain that.

2010 had Nikki Haley win by a very slight margin.  

[ElectionsGuy]

2006 had Corker win by a very slight margin, explain that.

Ford was the right type of right-wing Dem to get the DINOs (most of whom vote Republican now) to vote for him in Central Tennessee.

[Rockefeller GOP]

It's kind of ignorant to live under this assumption that every growing state is on this inevitable march toward the Democratic Party.  Things will change over the next several decades.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's kind of ignorant to live under this assumption that every growing state is on this inevitable march toward the Democratic Party.  Things will change over the next several decades.

Parties die when they get too extreme, and the Republicans are past their point. Eventually, Republicans will be outnumbered in every state, if you're talking about actual supporters. Republicans in government will hang on longer though.

[Kraxner]

With all this talk about Georgia or Arizona becoming competitive, why not Tennessee?

If the urban/rural split keeps expanding, shouldn't this help Democrats in Tennessee? Demographically, Tennessee isn't as rural as people think. It has 4 big cities - more than most states. Look what's happened in North Carolina.

Tennessee is certainly far more urban than Kentucky is.

This is as delusional as hardcore liberals thinking a Sanders/Warren ticket will conjure a landslide just by screaming about the banks.

[Mister Mets]

Probably when you have an incumbent Democrat with a very high approval rating running for reelection, or a piss-poor Republican candidate running in a poor environment (IE- If Republicans selected someone with much less political talent than McCain in '08).

[Kraxner]

Probably when you have an incumbent Democrat with a very high approval rating running for reelection, or a piss-poor Republican candidate running in a poor environment (IE- If Republicans selected someone with much less political talent than McCain in '08).

Or if you manage to find a native son from the state on either the Prez or VP side of the ticket that fits the state's politics. Like Al Gore 1992/1996.

But even if its a Native son if they dont fit the politics their not going to win that state, ex: Al Gore 2000


So basically unless its a popular native son that fits the state's politics OR pending an ideological shift that returns the state to the democrat side at the expense of losing other states.

OR the ones you mentioned, Tennessee is not going to go dem anytime soon.

[Goldwater]

When Hillary wins in 2016, obviously.

[morgieb]

muh urbanisation

More seriously though, it isn't having the minority influx like Georgia and Arizona. I suspect that Tennessee will remain Republican for quite a long time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Remember also that younger voters are much more Democratic, regardless of race.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It's also part of the Jacksonian upper south with AK, LA , MO, OK and WV. The increasingly urbane diverse socially Liberal democratic party (especially led by a black president ) is going to be a terrible fit for the region. Democratic losses are highly regionalized and steep in these areas.