So Quinn didn't win, but he proved it was possible

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just looked over the Illinois gubernatorial results and noticed that Quinn's statewide margin of defeat was lower than his margin of defeat in all non-Cook counties. So a uniform swing could've given him enough to win without winning any non-Cook county. And here even I was thinking that a winning Democrat in Illinois would've at least won Alexander as well.

But alas, I doubt we'll see that happening any time soon. Expect Rauner's opponent in 2018 to beat him in a bunch of counties.

[Maxwell]

Before the election, Most of the polls showed Quinn was supposed to win.

[ElectionsGuy]

I just looked over the Illinois gubernatorial results and noticed that Quinn's statewide margin of defeat was lower than his margin of defeat in all non-Cook counties. So a uniform swing could've given him enough to win without winning any non-Cook county. And here even I was thinking that a winning Democrat in Illinois would've at least won Alexander as well.

But alas, I doubt we'll see that happening any time soon. Expect Rauner's opponent in 2018 to beat him in a bunch of counties.

Actually, Fulton county only went to Rauner by one point, so he would've won that and maybe Rock Island county, but that's it.

[The_Doctor]

The models that forecast the election may have thought there was greater support for Quinn in Chicago than there was actually. Clearly with a 76-24% margin in Chicago, it wasn't enough for Quinn to surmount the deficit he ran in the rest of the state. That could have explained Rauner's surprise win (he, Tillis, and Hogan were the three surprises).

[Oldiesfreak1854]

But alas, I doubt we'll see that happening any time soon. Expect Rauner's opponent in 2018 to beat him in a bunch of counties.

Don't count on it.  Southern Illinois is trending so heavily Republican that I doubt even a moderate Republican like Rauner would lose there.  Plus, he'll be confined by an overwhelmingly Democrat legislature that will make his less controversial proposals nearly impossible to pass.  Since he pledged to work with Democrats during the campaign, it will be much easier for him to push for fiscal conservatism in a more palatable way, unlike Snyder, Walker, Kasich, etc.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I just looked over the Illinois gubernatorial results and noticed that Quinn's statewide margin of defeat was lower than his margin of defeat in all non-Cook counties. So a uniform swing could've given him enough to win without winning any non-Cook county. And here even I was thinking that a winning Democrat in Illinois would've at least won Alexander as well.

But alas, I doubt we'll see that happening any time soon. Expect Rauner's opponent in 2018 to beat him in a bunch of counties.

Actually, Fulton county only went to Rauner by one point, so he would've won that and maybe Rock Island county, but that's it.

All Quinn had to do then was lose those counties by one vote each, and BRTD's theory would be correct. Like ssuperflash, I don't find this surprising, unless we're missing his point.

[Xing]

I thought it was pretty obvious that one of the reasons Quinn lost was that turnout in Cook county was too low for his margin there to offset the rest of the state.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Well he won reelection with only three counties in 2010. Even if he had lost those non-Cook Counties by the same margin he won them, his margin in Cook County still would've been sufficient for reelection. So yes it's definitely possible.

[Mr. Illini]

But alas, I doubt we'll see that happening any time soon. Expect Rauner's opponent in 2018 to beat him in a bunch of counties.

Don't count on it.  Southern Illinois is trending so heavily Republican that I doubt even a moderate Republican like Rauner would lose there.  Plus, he'll be confined by an overwhelmingly Democrat legislature that will make his less controversial proposals nearly impossible to pass.  Since he pledged to work with Democrats during the campaign, it will be much easier for him to push for fiscal conservatism in a more palatable way, unlike Snyder, Walker, Kasich, etc.

How you underestimate Illinois Democrats, my friend. Expect the budget crisis to be dealt with under Rauner's tenure. Dems won't miss the opportunity to push it to the top of the priority list while the face of government is a Republican. They'll gloriously bury him in 2018 over it if my predictions serve me, because the fix will be painful for sure.

And ILDems don't need to work with Rauner, frankly. He can make all the promises he wants, he's at their whim really.